3823 Founders Dr · Needville, TX 77461

$274,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,683 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2007 9,600 sqft lot $163/sqft · 15% below area Est $325k · 15% under $6/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 3823 Founders Dr—where comfort, updates, and functionality come together! This spacious 1 story all-brick home sits on an oversized lot and features a large side gate, making it ideal for storing a trailer, boat, or camper. Step outside to enjoy the covered back patio, perfect for entertaining or relaxing with friends and family year-round. Inside, you’ll appreciate the fresh interior paint and new luxury vinyl flooring that give the home a clean, modern feel. The living room boasts soaring high ceilings and a cozy gas-burning fireplace, creating a warm and inviting space. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and plenty of roo

Key facts

• Large side gate
• Covered back patio
• Oversized lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• LARGE SIDE GATE
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• COZY GAS-BURNING FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Highland Pointe HOA with $75 annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (all rooms listed on first level)
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 2007; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level) — 16 x 12; Bedroom (first level) — 13 x 12; Bedroom (first level) — 11 x 10
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (first level) — 8 x 10; Bathroom (first level) — 8 x 8
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite counters; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: (No specific laundry/utility details provided)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-316 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (20.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.0% in Needville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#137 in TX, #3,992 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Needville ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Needville El (math 58% / reading 53%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 1,129 students, 49% FRL); Needville Middle (math 56% / reading 56%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 819 students, 45% FRL); Needville H S (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,067 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,230 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.92%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,746
• List price: $274,999
• Delta: -15.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3823 Founders Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,683 (0%)	1mo	$274,999	$163	100
9723 Highland Pointe Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-5%)	4mo	$300,000	$188	82
3818 Founders Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,855 (+10%)	1mo	$324,900	$175	76
14210 Cally Cir	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,712 (+2%)	4mo	$335,000	$196	72
3815 Founders Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,855 (+10%)	10mo	$314,900	$170	68
3819 Willow Breeze	0.16mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,876 (+12%)	3mo	$344,900	$184	64
9206 Gene St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,646 (-2%)	9mo	$319,900	$194	63
9525 Gene St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,852 (+10%)	4mo	$297,500	$161	63
14431 Joyce St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-10%)	9mo	$285,000	$189	54
8903 Milby St	0.67mi	3/3.5	1,600 (-5%)	2mo	$279,999	$175	53
14120 Fm1236 Rd	0.68mi	3/3.5	1,583 (-6%)	1mo	$279,999	$177	52
9422 Union St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-14%)	10mo	$255,000	$177	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-64,494
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-81,340
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77461

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$566 /mo · $6,792/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,695

Max offer price $219,230

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-160	-5% $-238	+0% $-316	+5% $-394	+10% $-471
Rent	-10% $-497	-5% $-406	+0% $-316	+5% $-225	+10% $-134
Rate	-1.0pp $-177	-0.5pp $-246	base $-316	+0.5pp $-387	+1.0pp $-459

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9723 Highland Pointe Dr Needville, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,295	$1.43	7d	1	0.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 990-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 990-char remark
3. 2026-04-22
   listed $274,999 Active 990-char remark
4. 2026-02-25
   soldstatus
5. 2010-11-23
   soldstatus
6. 2008-01-02
   soldstatus
7. 2007-10-12
   historical
8. 2007-05-16
   listed $158,900
9. 2007-03-14
   historical
10. 2006-11-14
    listed $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,792 · $566/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,792 · $566/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$6,792
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,203
• − Management: −$2,203
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$8,510
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,042
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832310
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,900
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2176
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

Livability — Needville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #3992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Needville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,397

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (50%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.17%
• Current HPI: 324.3807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1150.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $274,999 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-11-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-10-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-05-16 Listed $158,900 HARMLS
• 2007-03-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-11-14 Listed $22,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,792 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.