2423 Lemco Dr · Travis Ranch, TX 75126

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,490 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 5,881 sqft lot $161/sqft · 14% below area Est $280k · 14% under $41/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 1-story house featuring great open floor plan with lot of natural light. Spacious open kitchen with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and recessed lighting. Master suite features separate shower and walk-in closet. Enjoy family fun and entertainment in the private fenced backyard. New Vinyl flooring. Covered patio covered porch. Trinity Crossing community comeswith splash area, playground, greenbelts, and walking trails. Easy access to shopping, dining, new Costco and HEB and the new Texas Health Resources Hospital. Move in ready.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Covered patio
• Splash area

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• SPLASH AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Lot smaller than 0.5 acre (approximately 0.135 acres)
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Trinity Crossing Residential Community); HOA dues $246 semi-annually; HOA covers grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking with 2 covered spaces; 2-car attached garage with garage door opener and double doors; garage faces front
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; All-weather road
• Home design: Single-family residential; Attached property; Built in 2020; Subdivision: Trinity Xing Ph 3
• Construction: Built in 2020
• Exterior features: All-weather road access; City sewer; City water; Clay soil

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (12 x 14); Bedroom (10 x 11); Bedroom (10 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: One-level layout; One living area; One dining area; Other interior features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-364 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (26.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#983 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Criswell El (math 41% / reading 50%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 807 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 26% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,671 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.50%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,428
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -14.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2423 Lemco Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,490 (0%)	0mo	$240,000	$161	100
1050 Rio Bravo Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,519 (+2%)	0mo	$235,000	$155	82
4423 Culrin Way	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,497 (+0%)	4mo	$229,900	$154	79
2529 Real Quiet Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+8%)	8mo	$290,000	$181	77
1029 Bedias Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,431 (-4%)	6mo	$249,900	$175	74
1126 Ringgold Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,636 (+10%)	5mo	$239,900	$147	72
1110 Ringgold Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,661 (+12%)	7mo	$269,900	$162	68
2403 Rosharon Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,601 (+7%)	7mo	$249,900	$156	66
1202 Trevino Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,286 (-14%)	2mo	$243,000	$189	66
2203 Vance Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+5%)	2mo	$254,900	$163	60
1408 Sebastian Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+3%)	8mo	$265,000	$173	55
1247 Delmita Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-11%)	7mo	$250,000	$188	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-65,094
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-98,495
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,081 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$609 /mo · $7,303/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,542

Max offer price $175,671

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-228	-5% $-296	+0% $-364	+5% $-432	+10% $-500
Rent	-10% $-529	-5% $-446	+0% $-364	+5% $-282	+10% $-200
Rate	-1.0pp $-243	-0.5pp $-303	base $-364	+0.5pp $-426	+1.0pp $-490

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2402 Buchanan Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,399	$1.29	25d	1	0.09mi
2402 Buchanan Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,299	$1.24	3d	1	0.09mi
2401 Lalun Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1854	$2,089	$1.13	8d	1	0.10mi
2157 Clarion Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,975	$1.23	45d	1	0.14mi
4307 Johnstown Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,745	$1.40	25d	1	0.26mi
4119 Wintergreen Dr Forney, TX	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,500	$1.48	20d	1	0.27mi
2412 Bold Venture Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,895	$1.31	45d	1	0.28mi
4101 Wintergreen Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,645	$1.33	7d	1	0.31mi
5516 Berea St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,875	$1.48	45d	1	0.36mi
5529 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	14d	1	0.38mi
5529 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	7d	1	0.38mi
5537 Berea St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,780	$1.44	0d	1	0.39mi
5906 Nyquist Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,999	$1.33	45d	1	0.45mi
6001 Determine Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,679	$1.17	23d	1	0.46mi
5452 Montrose Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,750	$1.48	5d	1	0.47mi
6011 Determine Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	5d	1	0.49mi
5661 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,995	$1.25	5d	1	0.53mi
6021 Determine Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,095	$1.40	25d	1	0.53mi
5628 Elwood Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,750	$1.18	0d	1	0.53mi
5811 Grindstone Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,999	$1.39	45d	1	0.56mi
5693 McClelland St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1685	$1,839	$1.09	8d	1	0.57mi
6038 Determine Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1233	$1,895	$1.54	45d	1	0.58mi
5603 Elwood Dr Forney, TX	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,500	$1.49	45d	1	0.61mi
5733 Barbaro Dr Forney, TX	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,790	$1.77	0d	1	0.64mi
6084 Determine Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,700	$1.37	4d	1	0.68mi
6077 Determine Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,995	$1.33	25d	1	0.69mi
6101 Determine Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,850	$1.28	45d	1	0.74mi
2047 Enchanted Rock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,000	$1.22	5d	1	0.85mi
2117 Silsbee Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1663	$1,995	$1.20	18d	1	1.11mi
1004 Trickham Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,250	$1.23	0d	1	1.29mi
1804 Arcola Ct Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1619	$1,895	$1.17	16d	1	1.30mi
1804 Arcola Ct Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	1619	$1,895	$1.17	14d	1	1.30mi
1427 Ganado Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1512	$2,095	$1.39	23d	1	1.40mi
1427 Ganado Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,995	$1.31	8d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-09
   price $240,000 560-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $245,000 Active 560-char remark
3. 2024-11-17
   historical $1,775
4. 2024-11-15
   listed $1,775
5. 2024-11-11
   historical $1,775
6. 2024-11-07
   price $1,775
7. 2024-10-30
   price $1,875
8. 2024-10-10
   price $1,895
9. 2024-10-04
   listed $1,995
10. 2024-10-04
    historical $1,995
11. 2024-10-04
    listed $1,995
12. 2024-09-05
    historical $1,995
13. 2024-08-24
    listed $1,995
14. 2024-08-24
    historical $1,995
15. 2024-08-07
    price $1,995
16. 2024-07-31
    listed $2,095

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,303 · $609/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,303 · $609/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,973
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$7,303
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,998
• − Management: −$1,998
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$8,444
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,026
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready single-family home features a spacious open floor plan with new vinyl flooring, stainless steel appliances, and a private fenced backyard. It is in good condition with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Install new window treatments — New blinds or curtains improve privacy and aesthetics
• Both Add decorative lighting fixtures — Enhances interior ambiance and curb appeal
• Both Install a smart home system — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern features

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install new window treatments — New blinds or curtains improve privacy and aesthetics ↑
• Both Add decorative lighting fixtures — Enhances interior ambiance and curb appeal ↑
• Both Install a smart home system — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern features ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Travis Ranch

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #983
• US rank: #17440

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11355.8% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-06-05 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-05-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-25 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $245,000 NTREIS
• 2024-11-17 Rental Removed $1,775 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-11-15 Listed for Rent $1,775 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-11-11 Rental Removed $1,775 NTREIS
• 2024-11-07 Price Changed $1,775 NTREIS
• 2024-10-30 Price Changed $1,875 NTREIS
• 2024-10-10 Price Changed $1,895 NTREIS
• 2024-10-04 Listed for Rent $1,995 NTREIS
• 2024-10-04 Rental Removed $1,995 APPFOLIO
• 2024-10-04 Listed for Rent $1,995 APPFOLIO
• 2024-09-05 Rental Removed $1,995 NTREIS
• 2024-08-24 Listed for Rent $1,995 NTREIS
• 2024-08-24 Rental Removed $1,995 APPFOLIO
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed $1,995 APPFOLIO
• 2024-07-31 Listed for Rent $2,095 APPFOLIO

Property tax history

+44.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,303 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.