5875 Coahulia Rdg · Geronimo, TX 78155

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot Est $199k · 9% under $63/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home has a smart layout that includes an owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet, plus two additional bedrooms share a bathroom in the hall. The living area is at the front of the home includes a comfortable family room, dining area and open kitchen with a convenient island. Estimated COE Nov 2023. Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Private bath
• Modern finishes

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK IN CLOSET
• MODERN FINISHES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: NAVARRO RANCH
• Financial info: HOA annual fee is $752; Association transfer fee is $150; Down payment resource not indicated
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual HOA fee; Association transfer fee

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Water system
• Home design: Pre-owned single-family home; Built by Lennar; Approximately 3 years old
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Cement fiber exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker connection; Island kitchen; Walk-in pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bath (16 x 14); Bedroom 2 (10 x 12); Bedroom 3 (10 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpeting; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with tub only (9 x 6)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric and natural gas heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Eat-in kitchen with island and walk-in pantry; Built-in oven and self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator, dishwasher, disposal, and ice maker connection; Washer and dryer connections; All window coverings remain
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.7% in Geronimo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,471 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 702 students, 45% FRL); Navarro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 648 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1375 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,667 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.34%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
215 Pastar Fls	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-6%)	1mo	$186,999	$138	81
163 Pastar Fls	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+3%)	1mo	$184,999	$125	79
166 Pastar Fls	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+3%)	2mo	$192,999	$130	78
147 Pastar Fls	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+3%)	1mo	$185,999	$125	77
150 Pastar Fls	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+3%)	1mo	$188,999	$127	77
125 Pastar Fls	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+3%)	2mo	$193,999	$131	75
130 Pastar Fls	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+3%)	2mo	$190,999	$129	75
137 Pastar Fls	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+3%)	3mo	$235,999	$159	75
138 Pastar Fls	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+3%)	3mo	$244,999	$165	75
117 Pastar Fls	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+3%)	3mo	$240,999	$163	73
964 Pastar Crk	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+3%)	3mo	$231,999	$156	72
8952 Gila Rdg	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,634 (+14%)	3mo	$235,999	$144	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-36,907
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-46,177
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1375
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,723 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,528/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,847

Max offer price $162,667

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4	-5% $-47	+0% $-98	+5% $-149	+10% $-200
Rent	-10% $-234	-5% $-166	+0% $-98	+5% $-30	+10% $38
Rate	-1.0pp $-7	-0.5pp $-52	base $-98	+0.5pp $-145	+1.0pp $-192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,550	$1.22	3d	1	0.03mi
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	45d	1	0.03mi
5812 San Geronimo Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,700	$1.04	3d	1	0.18mi
217 Alligator Crk Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,750	$1.27	45d	1	0.22mi
9268 James Bowie Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,575	$0.97	4d	1	0.24mi
9272 James Bowie Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	3d	1	0.24mi
964 Pastar Crk Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,745	$1.18	3d	1	0.34mi
9211 Saint Jerome Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,550	$1.08	3d	1	0.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $180,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $180,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 New 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 New 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 New 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 New 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 641-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $180,000 New 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,528 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,528 · $377/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$4,528
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,654
• − Management: −$1,654
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$4,136
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$993
• After-tax cash flow: $-185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready home in Navarro Ranch offers a good condition with modern finishes and a good layout. It is ready for a fresh coat of paint to enhance its curb appeal and resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Paint trim — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Replace carpet — Modernizes interior and improves rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Paint trim — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Modernizes interior and improves rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

Livability — Geronimo

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1471
• US rank: #25174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Geronimo, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $180,000 LERA
• 2023-11-29 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2023-11-13 Pending — LERA
• 2023-09-22 Listed $237,999 LERA

Property tax history

+113.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,528 · -9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.