1417 Sarasota Dr · Poinciana, FL 34759

$249,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,417 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2005 6,991 sqft lot $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Awesome home at an incredible price. Located on nice lot only minutes from Lake Marion. Sold "As-Is". Prequalification letter or proof of funds must accompany all offers. A/C unit outside is missing. Room sizes given here are approximate, Independent verification of room sizes is suggested if this is a concern.

Key facts

• Wood floors
• Large backyard
• Private bathroom

Tags

• WOOD FLOORS
• GOOD CABINET SPACE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• LARGE BACKYARD
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.16 acre; Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Association of Poinciana Villages); Monthly HOA fee $100 (required); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence (residential); Planning unit development (PUD) zoning; One story; Faces east; Entry level: One
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,822 square feet
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Paved roads

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Solid wood cabinets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $249k implies a 453% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,558 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.80%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-38,097
• Equity at exit: $54,437

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-46,047
• Equity at exit: $52,462

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,016 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$246 /mo · $2,947/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,222

Max offer price $220,244

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-22	-5% $-92	+0% $-163	+5% $-233	+10% $-304
Rent	-10% $-322	-5% $-242	+0% $-163	+5% $-83	+10% $-4
Rate	-1.0pp $-37	-0.5pp $-99	base $-163	+0.5pp $-227	+1.0pp $-293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1402 Kissimmee Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1800	$1,850	$1.03	22d	1	0.31mi
1417 Kissimmee Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,629	$1.06	24d	1	0.35mi
1406 Orlando Pl Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,450	$1.15	4d	1	0.44mi
352 Kingfish Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,950	$1.17	24d	1	0.54mi
1364 Congo Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,750	$1.05	4d	1	0.56mi
557 Peace Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1547	$1,699	$1.10	4d	1	0.57mi
1701 Pilchard Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,050	$1.19	24d	1	0.71mi
205 Dogfish Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,680	$1.06	14d	1	0.72mi
223 Grouper Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,595	$1.08	24d	1	0.73mi
1805 Hudson Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1531	$1,835	$1.20	24d	1	0.74mi
320 Kingfish Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	3.0	1606	$1,795	$1.12	24d	1	0.75mi
1731 Minnow Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,750	$1.45	24d	1	0.75mi
1851 Superior Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,800	$1.08	24d	1	0.78mi
310 Dogfish Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	24d	1	0.82mi
241 Grouper Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1762	$2,000	$1.14	24d	1	0.84mi
1243 Amazon Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,835	$1.16	4d	1	0.85mi
321 Drum Ln Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1785	$1,715	$0.96	20d	1	0.86mi
308 Bass Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1613	$1,850	$1.15	24d	1	0.87mi
308 Bass Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1614	$2,100	$1.30	4d	1	0.87mi
1660 Redfin Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,975	$1.19	4d	1	0.89mi
1662 Redfin Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1852	$1,940	$1.05	24d	1	0.89mi
1658 Redfin Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,810	$1.09	4d	1	0.89mi
202 Snapper Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,050	$1.23	4d	1	0.94mi
1884 Snapper Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1682	$1,985	$1.18	15d	1	0.94mi
313 Amberjack Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,750	$1.41	24d	1	0.97mi
1613 Sail Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$1,625	$0.95	24d	1	1.09mi
1912 Manatee Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1420	$1,995	$1.40	24d	1	1.10mi
1907 Manatee Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,795	$1.00	24d	1	1.10mi
610 Alafia Pl Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,200	$1.34	24d	1	1.12mi
1707 Sail Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,015	$1.11	4d	1	1.13mi
116 Sail Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,805	$1.09	12d	1	1.16mi
1637 Sail Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,720	$1.38	4d	1	1.17mi
1951 Michigan Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1562	$2,060	$1.32	15d	1	1.17mi
106 Herring Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$1,575	$1.48	4d	1	1.19mi
104 Herring Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1699	$1,925	$1.13	4d	1	1.20mi
14201 Indian Creek Dr #14201 Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,450	$1.19	24d	1	1.23mi
407 Arkansas Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1858	$1,600	$0.86	12d	1	1.24mi
12 Herring Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1055	$1,613	$1.53	24d	1	1.27mi
319 Erie Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,815	$1.39	24d	1	1.27mi
145 Ocean Bluff Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,500	$1.20	24d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    listed $249,000 Active
16. 2009-07-31
    soldstatus $45,000 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    Awesome home at an incredible price. Located on nice lot only minutes from Lake Marion. Sold "As-Is". Prequalification letter or proof of funds must accompany all offers. A/C unit outside is missing. Room sizes given here are approximate, Independent verification of room sizes is suggested if this is a concern.

17. 2009-05-29
    listed $42,900 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    Awesome home at an incredible price. Located on nice lot only minutes from Lake Marion. Sold "As-Is". Prequalification letter or proof of funds must accompany all offers. A/C unit outside is missing. Room sizes given here are approximate, Independent verification of room sizes is suggested if this is a concern.

18. 2004-10-01
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,947 · $246/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,947 · $246/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$2,947
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,935
• − Management: −$1,935
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$6,266
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,504
• After-tax cash flow: $-450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1283.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-31 Sold (MLS) $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-29 Listed $42,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,947 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.