21922 Ottawa Rd #26 · Apple Valley, CA 92308

$49,998

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Manufactured · 49 Days on market

Built 1962 Average condition $100/sqft · 197% above area ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity meets potential with this well-kept home, offering the perfect canvas for your personal updates and vision. Situated in a quiet, well-kept community, this property stands out with one of the best locations in the park, featuring a larger lot and added space that’s hard to find. The home has been well cared for over the years and offers a solid foundation, with room for cosmetic updates to truly make it your own. Enjoy the benefits of a low land lease, helping keep your monthly costs manageable, all while living in a peaceful neighborhood setting close to local shopping, dining, and amenities. This home offers great potential and value. Come see it for yourself and imagine

Key facts

• Added space
• Low land lease
• Well-kept home

Tags

• WELL-KEPT HOME
• LARGER LOT
• ADDED SPACE
• LOW LAND LEASE
• PEACEFUL NEIGHBORHOOD
• LOCAL SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported by seller
• Financial info: Land lease of $568 per month (seller-provided); Rent includes gas, trash, and water
• HOA & community: Located in a community setting (Apple Valley Ranchos); Community features include suburban setting and park

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public/district water; Public sewer; Water available; Sewer available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Cable available; Telephone available
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (Bel Air model); Mobile home remains on site; Total of 1 story
• Construction: Mobile construction; Seller-provided year built information; Mobile dimensions approximately 40 by 20 feet
• Exterior features: Front yard; Back yard; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with shower-in-tub
• Heating & cooling: Wall heater; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Entry level is ground floor
• Laundry & utility: On-site laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $903 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.0% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→2/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,498 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.37%
• DSCR: 4.44
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $16,852
• List price: $49,998
• Delta: 196.69%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 78.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.68×
• Total profit: $51,505
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 82.7%
• Equity multiple: 10.13×
• Total profit: $127,794
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $13,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92308

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 417
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,580 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $903

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,998

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13193 Navajo Rd Unit 3 Apple Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	614	$1,350	$2.20	43d	1	0.33mi
14080 Mohawk Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	748	$1,849	$2.47	5d	1	0.99mi
14080 Mohawk Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	748	$1,850	$2.47	24d	1	0.99mi
22544 Sioux Rd Unit 21 Apple Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	660	$1,195	$1.81	1d	1	1.46mi
22544 Sioux Rd Unit 21 Apple Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	660	$1,195	$1.81	10d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,998 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,998 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,998 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,998 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,998 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,998 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,998 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,998 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $49,998 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $55,000 Active 717-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 1 d/yr ≥100°F today · 2 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,960
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,517
• − Management: −$1,517
• − Depreciation: −$1,454
• Taxable income: $10,671
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,561
• After-tax cash flow: $8,271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained manufactured home offers a solid foundation for cosmetic updates, with potential for significant value increases through kitchen and interior updates.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate kitchen appliances — outdated and in need of replacement
• Minor kitchen flooring — tile flooring could be replaced with a more modern option

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen will improve both resale and rental value
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance
• Both replace kitchen flooring — new flooring will enhance the home's curb appeal and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen appliances · outdated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen flooring · tile flooring could be replaced with a more modern option	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen will improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance ↑
• Both replace kitchen flooring — new flooring will enhance the home's curb appeal and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,709
• Household income: $66,568
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1389.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 19% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.60%
• Current HPI: 359.2305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.30%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $49,998 CRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $55,000 CRMLS