Plan 1242 Plan · Conroe, TX 77304

$208,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,242 sqft · SingleFamily · 182 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 181 days

🏗️ New construction. The $208,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $261,892.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-421 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.5% in Conroe — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Turner El (math 55% / reading 53%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 424 students, 66% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1078 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $175,839 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.89%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,892
• List price: $208,995
• Delta: -20.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6642 Lahna Oak	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,287 (+4%)	4mo	$237,690	$185	69
6813 Hart Oak Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,287 (+4%)	6mo	$225,440	$175	65
1663 Shae Oak Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,287 (+4%)	9mo	$229,690	$178	57
6634 Lahna Oak	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,414 (+14%)	3mo	$254,690	$180	52
6654 Lahna Oak Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,414 (+14%)	4mo	$264,540	$187	52
6662 Lahna Oak Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,414 (+14%)	4mo	$279,490	$198	51
6626 Lahna Oak	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,414 (+14%)	6mo	$259,540	$184	50
6801 Hart Oak Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,414 (+14%)	7mo	$249,090	$176	48
1662 Shae Oak Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,414 (+14%)	5mo	$229,670	$162	43
6717 Chinapkin Oak Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,414 (+14%)	10mo	$245,495	$174	43
6936 California Black Oak Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+14%)	3mo	$235,900	$167	42
1928 Velvet Oak Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,414 (+14%)	8mo	$263,145	$186	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-74,362
• Equity at exit: $39,049

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-119,066
• Equity at exit: $22,644

Cash invested: $73,330 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 12 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.5 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $235,472 ($177/sqft)
• Median days on market: 80 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +19.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77304

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1078
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,373
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$327 /mo · $3,928/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-421

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,291

Max offer price $201,009

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-240	-5% $-330	+0% $-421	+5% $-511	+10% $-602
Rent	-10% $-560	-5% $-490	+0% $-421	+5% $-351	+10% $-282
Rate	-1.0pp $-289	-0.5pp $-354	base $-421	+0.5pp $-489	+1.0pp $-558

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,473
• Closing costs: $7,857
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1575 League Line Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,787	$1.91	4d	37	0.63mi
1510 League Line Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1089	$1,978	$1.82	4d	16	0.69mi
825 N Farm to Market 3083 Rd W Unit 233 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,518	$1.41	32d	1	0.73mi
1624 League Line Rd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,135	$1.07	19d	1	0.73mi
864 N Farm to Market 3083 Rd W Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,150	$1.07	19d	1	0.74mi
1656 League Line Rd #233 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,620	$1.53	0d	1	0.75mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 2228 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,565	$1.48	69d	1	0.78mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 2174 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,565	$1.48	65d	1	0.78mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 2228 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,560	$1.47	48d	1	0.78mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 1597 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1123	$2,014	$1.79	139d	1	0.78mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 2174 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1123	$1,981	$1.76	112d	1	0.78mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 3174 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,145	$1.49	106d	1	0.78mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 510 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,121	$1.47	80d	1	0.78mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 306 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,121	$1.47	78d	1	0.78mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 1593 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,105	$1.46	70d	1	0.78mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,151	$1.49	48d	1	0.78mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 306 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,145	$1.49	24d	1	0.78mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 1617 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,522	$1.44	83d	1	0.78mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 209 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,530	$1.44	78d	1	0.78mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 1587 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,514	$1.43	70d	1	0.78mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 3174 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,156	$1.50	69d	1	0.78mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 209 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,554	$1.47	24d	1	0.78mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 1583 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1123	$2,014	$1.79	108d	1	0.78mi
1560 League Line Rd Apt 7208 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,684	$1.59	7d	1	0.78mi
7155 Blue Oak Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,850	$1.44	87d	1	0.81mi
1560 League Line Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	869	$1,795	$2.07	19d	5	0.82mi
800 N Farm to Market 3083 Rd W Unit 2047 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1151	$1,540	$1.34	85d	1	0.90mi
800 N Farm to Market 3083 Rd W Unit 2047 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1151	$1,540	$1.34	86d	1	0.90mi
800 N Farm to Market 3083 Rd W Unit 209 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1151	$1,515	$1.32	78d	1	0.96mi
800 N Farm to Market 3083 Rd W Unit 3174 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,935	$1.51	69d	1	0.96mi
800 N Farm to Market 3083 Rd W Unit 306 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,951	$1.52	78d	1	0.96mi
800 N Farm to Market 3083 Rd W Unit 2228 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,564	$1.45	48d	1	0.96mi
800 N Farm to Market 3083 Rd W Unit 209 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,693	$1.57	24d	1	0.96mi
800 N Farm to Market 3083 Rd W Unit 217 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,525	$1.41	50d	1	0.96mi
800 N Farm to Market 3083 Rd W Unit 306 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,796	$1.40	24d	1	0.96mi
800 N Farm to Market 3083 Rd W Unit 2174 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,560	$1.45	67d	1	0.96mi
800 N Farm to Market 3083 Rd W Unit 833 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$2,197	$1.72	139d	1	0.96mi
800 N Farm to Market 3083 Rd W Unit 2162 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1151	$1,515	$1.32	103d	1	0.96mi
800 N Farm to Market 3083 Rd W Unit 3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,867	$1.46	48d	1	0.96mi
800 N Farm to Market 3083 Rd W Unit 837 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,509	$1.40	70d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $208,995 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $208,995 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $208,995 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $208,995 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $208,995 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $208,995 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $208,995 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $208,995 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $208,995 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $208,995 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $208,995 Active 172 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $208,995 Active 171 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $208,995 Active 170 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $208,995 Active 169 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $208,995 Active 163 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $208,995 Active 162 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $208,995 Active 161 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    price $208,995 Active 156 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $206,995 Active 156 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $206,995 Active 155 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $206,995 Active 154 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $206,995 Active 152 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $206,995 Active 151 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $206,995 Active 150 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $206,995 Active 149 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $206,995 Active 148 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $206,995 Active 147 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $206,995 Active 146 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $206,995 Active 145 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $206,995 Active 144 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $206,995 Active 143 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $206,995 Active 142 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    price $206,995 Active 141 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $204,995 Active 141 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $204,995 Active 140 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $204,995 Active 139 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $204,995 Active 138 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $204,995 Active 137 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $204,995 Active 136 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $204,995 Active 135 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $204,995 Active 133 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $204,995 Active 132 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $204,995 Active 131 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $204,995 Active 130 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $200,995 Active 127 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $200,995 Active 125 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $200,995 Active 124 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $200,995 Active 122 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $200,995 Active 120 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $200,995 Active 119 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,670
• − Property taxes: −$3,928
• − Insurance: −$1,309
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − Depreciation: −$7,619
• Taxable loss: −$9,802
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,352
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great location with nearby playgrounds and parks, making it an attractive option for families and investors.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Playground and parks — Improves quality of life and adds value for families. ↑
• Both Smart thermostat — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency, attracting buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters, increasing desirability and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental markets. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Turner El C TX #664/4,322 Nat'l #10,700/41,679 Middle Robert P Brabham Middle F TX #756/1,662 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High Willis H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,225
• Household income: $80,425
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.02%
• Current HPI: 209.516
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $207,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $217,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Listed $227,995 Zillow