207 First St · Winchester, KS 66097

$64,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,567 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 213 Days on market

Built 1900 6,969 sqft lot Est $69k · 6% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Step Back in Time with this Turn of the Century Home. Large Corner Lot. Home has 4 bedroom and a Main Level Primary room. 3 Bedrooms upstairs.

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 212 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; 1.5-story layout; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Cellar basement; Built over 100 years ago
• Exterior features: Porch; City lot on a corner; Paved road with public maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: Ceramic tile flooring in kitchen; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (mix of first and second floor bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet in living areas and bedrooms; Ceramic tile in kitchen and bathroom; Vinyl in laundry
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with ceramic tile and shower-over-tub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Family room; Main floor bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room (vinyl flooring)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $459 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#169 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Jefferson County North (rural): math 42% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #34 of 280 in KS (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jefferson County North Elem/Middle (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #388 of 684 statewide, top 61%, 325 students, 34% FRL); Jefferson Co North High (math 30% / reading 50%, grade F, #20 of 327 statewide, top 6%, 115 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 61 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $57,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.34%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $68,948
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
406 Poplar St	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,362 (-13%)	23mo	$60,000	$44	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $53,256
• Equity at exit: $46,344

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.31×
• Total profit: $132,881
• Equity at exit: $89,303

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66097

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,198 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,435/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $459

Break-even live

Break-even rent $616

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $64,900 Active 213 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,900 Active 212 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,900 Active 211 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $64,900 Active 210 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 210 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 209 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,900 Active 207 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,900 Active 206 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 203 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,900 Active 202 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 201 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,900 Active 199 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,900 Active 197 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 196 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 195 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 194 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 193 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    status Active
19. 2026-05-13
    price $69,900
20. 2026-04-30
    historical
21. 2026-04-10
    price $74,900
22. 2026-03-07
    price $83,900
23. 2026-02-06
    price $89,900
24. 2026-02-04
    status Active
25. 2026-02-03
    historical
26. 2026-01-06
    price $94,000
27. 2025-12-05
    price $97,000
28. 2025-11-05
    listed $99,900 Active
29. 2020-12-21
    soldstatus
30. 2018-12-04
    listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,435 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,435 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$1,435
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,150
• − Management: −$1,150
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $4,793
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,150
• After-tax cash flow: $4,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County North
• NCES district ID: 2013020
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,710
• Composite: 39.73/100
• National rank: #8001
• State rank: #34 of 280 in KS

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #7943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, KS
• Population (ZIP): 939

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,534 people
• By 2030: 18,165 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 17,247 · -6.9%
• By 2050: 16,257 · -12.3%
• By 2075: 14,493 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 12,298 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.9) · D 30.5% · R 67.4% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.2pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -36.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.9 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+32.3 2012: R+22.8 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 275.6528
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+55.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $69,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $74,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $83,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $89,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $94,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $97,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Listed $99,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-12-04 Listed $45,000 Lawrence MLS as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,435 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.