121 Shinbone Dr · Monticello, KY 42633

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 252 Days on market

Built 1987 9,583 sqft lot $117/sqft · 27% below area Est $171k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check on this home which is super-convenient to the lake!! If you're looking for a vacation home or a lake getaway, this is it!! There is a public boat ramp less than 1/2 mile from the home!! It is a 3 bdr, 2 ba, manufactured home with a half-wrap porch and an office/bonus room. It's also conveniently located about 5 miles from Conley Bottom Marina. Selling as-is but all inspections are welcome.

Key facts

• Public boat ramp
• Half-wrap porch
• Office bonus room

Tags

• PUBLIC BOAT RAMP
• HALF-WRAP PORCH
• OFFICE BONUS ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $107 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.6% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#265 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wayne County (town): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #142 of 165 in KY (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.68%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,170
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -26.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-13,461
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,100
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42633

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,101 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $659/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $965

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 252 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 251 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 250 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 249 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 247 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 246 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 243 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 242 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 241 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 239 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 237 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 236 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 235 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 234 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 233 DOM
16. 2026-04-08
    price $125,000 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Check on this home which is super-convenient to the lake!! If you're looking for a vacation home or a lake getaway, this is it!! There is a public boat ramp less than 1/2 mile from the home!! It is a 3 bdr, 2 ba, manufactured home with a half-wrap porch and an office/bonus room. It's also conveniently located about 5 miles from Conley Bottom Marina. Selling as-is but all inspections are welcome.

17. 2026-04-08
    status Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Check on this home which is super-convenient to the lake!! If you're looking for a vacation home or a lake getaway, this is it!! There is a public boat ramp less than 1/2 mile from the home!! It is a 3 bdr, 2 ba, manufactured home with a half-wrap porch and an office/bonus room. It's also conveniently located about 5 miles from Conley Bottom Marina. Selling as-is but all inspections are welcome.

18. 2026-04-06
    historical 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Check on this home which is super-convenient to the lake!! If you're looking for a vacation home or a lake getaway, this is it!! There is a public boat ramp less than 1/2 mile from the home!! It is a 3 bdr, 2 ba, manufactured home with a half-wrap porch and an office/bonus room. It's also conveniently located about 5 miles from Conley Bottom Marina. Selling as-is but all inspections are welcome.

19. 2026-01-07
    status Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Check on this home which is super-convenient to the lake!! If you're looking for a vacation home or a lake getaway, this is it!! There is a public boat ramp less than 1/2 mile from the home!! It is a 3 bdr, 2 ba, manufactured home with a half-wrap porch and an office/bonus room. It's also conveniently located about 5 miles from Conley Bottom Marina. Selling as-is but all inspections are welcome.

20. 2026-01-07
    price $135,000 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Check on this home which is super-convenient to the lake!! If you're looking for a vacation home or a lake getaway, this is it!! There is a public boat ramp less than 1/2 mile from the home!! It is a 3 bdr, 2 ba, manufactured home with a half-wrap porch and an office/bonus room. It's also conveniently located about 5 miles from Conley Bottom Marina. Selling as-is but all inspections are welcome.

21. 2026-01-06
    historical 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Check on this home which is super-convenient to the lake!! If you're looking for a vacation home or a lake getaway, this is it!! There is a public boat ramp less than 1/2 mile from the home!! It is a 3 bdr, 2 ba, manufactured home with a half-wrap porch and an office/bonus room. It's also conveniently located about 5 miles from Conley Bottom Marina. Selling as-is but all inspections are welcome.

22. 2025-10-21
    price $140,000 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Check on this home which is super-convenient to the lake!! If you're looking for a vacation home or a lake getaway, this is it!! There is a public boat ramp less than 1/2 mile from the home!! It is a 3 bdr, 2 ba, manufactured home with a half-wrap porch and an office/bonus room. It's also conveniently located about 5 miles from Conley Bottom Marina. Selling as-is but all inspections are welcome.

23. 2025-10-06
    listed $150,000 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Check on this home which is super-convenient to the lake!! If you're looking for a vacation home or a lake getaway, this is it!! There is a public boat ramp less than 1/2 mile from the home!! It is a 3 bdr, 2 ba, manufactured home with a half-wrap porch and an office/bonus room. It's also conveniently located about 5 miles from Conley Bottom Marina. Selling as-is but all inspections are welcome.

24. 2011-04-06
    soldstatus $195,000
25. 2010-04-17
    soldstatus $195,000
26. 2010-02-01
    soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $659 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,075 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$416/yr (+$35/mo · 63.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$659
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,057
• − Management: −$1,057
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$823
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$197
• After-tax cash flow: $1,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne County
• NCES district ID: 2105790
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -21.00%
• Median HH income: $30,391
• Composite: 21.38/100
• National rank: #8358
• State rank: #142 of 165 in KY

Livability — Monticello

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #12963

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,609

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,477 people
• By 2030: 18,776 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 17,199 · -11.7%
• By 2050: 15,602 · -19.9%
• By 2075: 11,883 · -39.0%
• By 2100: 8,300 · -57.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Iranian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.5% · R 82.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.9pp toward R · 2008: -37.1pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+62.0 2016: R+61.8 2012: R+47.6 2008: R+37.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.14%
• Current HPI: 227.5936
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+792.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $125,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-07 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $135,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $140,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $150,000 ImagineMLS
• 2011-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2010-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2010-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $659 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.