2107 Wailua Dr · Holiday, FL 34691

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1980 3,738 sqft lot Est $88k · 36% over $63/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lake Conley 55+ Community 2 bed 2 bath within a gated community. Features include spacious kitchen, dining room, living room(mirrored wall) sliders open onto vinyl enclosed lanai, and attached utility room with washer and dryer. Laminate floors with carpet in bedrooms. Attached 2 car carport. * * * Sold as is * * * Seller offering up to $500 Home Warranty Credit for Owner Occupied Primary Purchase when requested with initial offer. * * * Buyer Pays State Stamps on Deed - Seller is Exempt * * * This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 02/01/2014

Key facts

• Large kitchen
• Bright living room
• Separate dining area

Tags

• LAKE CONLEY GATED COMMUNITY
• LARGE KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• ENCLOSED LANAI
• ATTACHED UTILITY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre (approx. 0.09 acres)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply; Partially furnished
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $63.41; HOA amenities: clubhouse, gated community, pool, shuffleboard court; Association approval required; Pets allowed; Senior community; Golf carts allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; East-facing entry; Residential property
• Construction: Metal siding; Membrane roof; Stem wall foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage; Exterior laundry access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-894/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $107k (11.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.5% in Holiday — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulfside Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 389 students, 90% FRL); Paul R. Smith Middle School (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Anclote High School (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,205 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 48% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $120k implies a 314% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,836 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.57%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $88,128
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2100 Manoa Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	864 (0%)	5mo	$100,000	$116	92
2039 Kona Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	864 (0%)	6mo	$150,000	$174	90
2119 Lullaby Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0	877 (+2%)	2mo	$50,000	$57	81
2101 Maui Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	960 (+11%)	0mo	$135,000	$141	78
2013 Wailua Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	960 (+11%)	1mo	$113,000	$118	76
3852 Bywater Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	968 (+12%)	2mo	$170,000	$176	73
2107 Melody Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0	890 (+3%)	2mo	$70,000	$79	72
2014 Kepner Dr	0.44mi	2/1.5	848 (-2%)	5mo	$74,000	$87	70
2125 Kepner Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0	934 (+8%)	3mo	$80,000	$86	65
1919 Pleasure Dr	0.35mi	2/1.5	746 (-14%)	1mo	$70,000	$94	58
1841 Holiday Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0	920 (+6%)	6mo	$75,000	$82	53
3707 Tiki Dr	0.61mi	2/1.0	784 (-9%)	2mo	$80,000	$102	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-25,350
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-32,837
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34691

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,556 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,620/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,650

Max offer price $106,836

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-7	-5% $-41	+0% $-75	+5% $-108	+10% $-142
Rent	-10% $-197	-5% $-136	+0% $-75	+5% $-13	+10% $48
Rate	-1.0pp $-14	-0.5pp $-44	base $-75	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3749 Beechwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,623	$1.60	1d	1	0.22mi
2051 Pleasure Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	26d	1	0.31mi
4334 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,450	$1.89	26d	1	0.40mi
3742 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,800	$1.92	26d	1	0.41mi
3405 Wilson Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	861	$1,650	$1.92	26d	1	0.42mi
4337 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,500	$1.95	26d	1	0.43mi
3513 Trask Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,249	$1.25	26d	1	0.43mi
2132 Kepner Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,295	$1.41	22d	1	0.47mi
4326 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit 14E Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	768	$2,000	$2.60	26d	1	0.48mi
4351 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,150	$1.39	26d	1	0.52mi
1624 Springdale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,575	$1.57	6d	1	0.56mi
4318 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,200	$2.08	26d	1	0.58mi
4354 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,500	$1.82	26d	1	0.61mi
4365 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,300	$1.58	1d	1	0.61mi
4313 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	825	$1,300	$1.58	16d	1	0.63mi
4356 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,350	$1.64	26d	1	0.63mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit G Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	26d	1	0.66mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	16d	1	0.66mi
3433 Atlantis Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	26d	1	0.69mi
3143 Pinon Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1034	$1,695	$1.64	23d	1	0.74mi
2117 Calusa Trl Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,195	$1.69	0d	1	0.77mi
2122 Ranchita Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	648	$1,399	$2.16	26d	1	0.84mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,404	$1.37	4d	13	0.84mi
3623 Holiday Lake Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1004	$1,525	$1.52	26d	1	0.85mi
3052 Salton St Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,600	$1.50	26d	1	0.86mi
3531 Rosewater Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	907	$1,795	$1.98	26d	1	0.92mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	1d	7	0.92mi
3838 Staysail Ln Unit 3838 Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1114	$1,500	$1.35	26d	1	0.95mi
1440 Brixton Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	952	$1,707	$1.79	26d	1	0.96mi
3530 Oxford Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,495	$1.38	23d	1	0.98mi
1351 Whitehall Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1078	$1,550	$1.44	26d	1	1.00mi
4823 Longwood Ave Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,800	$1.60	6d	1	1.05mi
3054 Primrose Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,500	$1.54	6d	1	1.09mi
4723 Aegean Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,636	$1.64	6d	1	1.10mi
1051 Maybury Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1021	$1,695	$1.66	23d	1	1.10mi
2610 Templewood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	6d	1	1.11mi
1552 Alert St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	956	$2,100	$2.20	6d	1	1.11mi
2509 Sweetwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	988	$1,650	$1.67	19d	1	1.11mi
2552 Chancery Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,595	$1.95	26d	1	1.21mi
1024 Solar Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	26d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    price $120,000
15. 2026-03-26
    listed $135,000 Active
16. 2014-04-02
    soldstatus $29,000 Sold 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    Lake Conley 55+ Community 2 bed 2 bath within a gated community. Features include spacious kitchen, dining room, living room(mirrored wall) sliders open onto vinyl enclosed lanai, and attached utility room with washer and dryer. Laminate floors with carpet in bedrooms. Attached 2 car carport. * * * Sold as is * * * Seller offering up to $500 Home Warranty Credit for Owner Occupied Primary Purchase when requested with initial offer. * * * Buyer Pays State Stamps on Deed - Seller is Exempt * * * This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 02/01/2014

17. 2014-01-10
    listed $34,900 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    Lake Conley 55+ Community 2 bed 2 bath within a gated community. Features include spacious kitchen, dining room, living room(mirrored wall) sliders open onto vinyl enclosed lanai, and attached utility room with washer and dryer. Laminate floors with carpet in bedrooms. Attached 2 car carport. * * * Sold as is * * * Seller offering up to $500 Home Warranty Credit for Owner Occupied Primary Purchase when requested with initial offer. * * * Buyer Pays State Stamps on Deed - Seller is Exempt * * * This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 02/01/2014

18. 2010-04-15
    listed $50,000
19. 2010-04-14
    historical
20. 2009-11-06
    listed $55,000
21. 2005-10-11
    soldstatus $76,000
22. 2005-10-07
    soldstatus $76,000
23. 2005-09-03
    listed $80,990
24. 2005-03-03
    listed $80,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,620 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,620 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 53% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,620
• − Insurance: −$5,718
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,494
• − Management: −$1,494
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$2,622
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$629
• After-tax cash flow: $-265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,232
• Household income: $50,288
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.84%
• Current HPI: 326.9843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+48.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-02 Sold (MLS) $29,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-10 Listed $34,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-15 Listed $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-14 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-11-06 Listed $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-07 Sold (MLS) $76,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-03 Listed $80,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-03 Listed $80,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,620 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.