16273 Old Valley Pike · Edinburg, VA 22824

$160,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,132 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1900 5,445 sqft lot Est $247k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

SELLER NOW OFFERING $10,000 TOWARD TAP FEE OR WELL. 2-bedroom, 1-bath ranch being sold strictly AS-IS. Property will require significant renovation and updates. Home features a cistern water system and is not connected to public water. Great opportunity for buyers looking for a project property with potential. Buyer to perform all due diligence regarding condition, utilities, and systems.

Key facts

• Cistern water system
• 5,445 sq ft lot
• Built 1900

Tags

• CISTERN WATER SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Below average property condition; Built year and square footage sources from assessor; Above-grade finished area approximately 1,194 (assessor)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cistern water source; Electric service for heating/cooling/hot water
• Home design: Detached dwelling; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Concrete perimeter foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: No basement; Not tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Tub with shower; Entry-level bedroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($808/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#294 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Shenandoah County Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #91 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W.W. Robinson Elementary (math 53% / reading 49%, grade C-, #733 of 1,108 statewide, top 66%, 1,061 students, 74% FRL); Peter Muhlenberg Middle (math 33% / reading 57%, grade D, #274 of 342 statewide, top 81%, 451 students, 73% FRL); Central High (math 46% / reading 66%, grade C, #275 of 319 statewide, top 87%, 749 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 37% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 224 units permitted in Shenandoah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Shenandoah County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,863 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.80%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $246,776
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
130 N High St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (+5%)	1mo	$300,000	$253	56
881 Water St	0.43mi	2/3.0	1,220 (+8%)	23mo	$158,000	$130	40
107 Water St	0.72mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,218 (+8%)	14mo	$265,000	$218	35
213 Shenandoah Ave	0.73mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,212 (+7%)	20mo	$245,000	$202	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $91,358
• Equity at exit: $144,141

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.93×
• Total profit: $265,522
• Equity at exit: $310,845

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22824

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,299 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $634/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,213

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $160,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 391-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $175,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $634 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,312 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$678/yr (+$56/mo · 106.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,584
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$634
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,247
• − Management: −$1,247
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$1,961
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$471
• After-tax cash flow: $1,279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shenandoah County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103510
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,207
• Composite: 44.42/100
• National rank: #2811
• State rank: #91 of 131 in VA

Livability — Edinburg

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #10446

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,061

Population outlook (Shenandoah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,891 people
• By 2030: 45,630 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 46,708 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 47,072 · +4.9%
• By 2075: 47,418 · +5.6%
• By 2100: 43,707 · -2.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Slovak 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shenandoah

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.4% · R 70.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -26.5pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+43.3 2012: R+31.4 2008: R+26.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.98%
• Current HPI: 342.2967
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $634 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.