16186 Farmer · Lytle, TX 78052

$232,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 999 sqft · Land · 64 Days on market

Built 2026 6,359 sqft lot $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

The Alpine floor plan by LGI Homes is a charming two-bedroom, two-bathroom home filled with designer upgrades you are sure to love! The kitchen features modern white wood cabinets, granite countertops and stainless-steel appliances. Smart home technology, including a programmable thermostat and double-pane insulated windows are also featured throughout the home for energy-efficiency. With two additional closets in each hallway this beautiful home will provide all the storage you need.

Key facts

• Additional closets
• Granite countertops
• 6,359 sq ft lot

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SMART HOME TECHNOLOGY
• PROGRAMMABLE THERMOSTAT
• DOUBLE PANE INSULATED WINDOWS
• ADDITIONAL CLOSETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment assistance resources available
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee paid annually; Neighborhood amenities include park/playground and jogging trails; Subdivision: Rosewood Estates (ROSEWOOD)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke alarm; Carbon monoxide detector
• Utilities: Water service: Lytle; Sewer service: Lytle; Garbage service: Lytle; Electricity: CPS Energy; Water and sewer systems available
• Home design: New construction by LGI Homes; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built by LGI Homes (new); Asbestos shingle, stone/rock and siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio slab; Privacy fence; Double-pane windows; Asbestos shingle, stone/rock and siding exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Island kitchen; Smooth cooktop; Cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker connection; Solid countertops; Custom cabinets; Vent fan
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with full bath (10 x 15); Second bedroom (10 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpeting; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath with tub/shower combination and single vanity (8 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Washer and dryer connections; Cooktop (smooth); Microwave oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker connection; Vent fan; Smoke alarm; Carbon monoxide detector; Garage door opener; Solid countertops; Custom cabinets; Island kitchen; Open floor plan; Living/Dining room combination; Utility room inside; Laundry room; Walk-in closets; Attic with pull-down stairs; High ceilings; Ground level / no steps; Cable TV available; High-speed internet; Some window coverings remain
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Laundry room; Utility room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $233k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-310/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Lytle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#404 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lytle ISD (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #690 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lytle El (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 541 students, 73% FRL); Lytle J H (math 28% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 398 students, 73% FRL); Lytle H S (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 487 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $65k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $173,101 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.47%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $68,956
• Equity at exit: $150,094

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $203,036
• Equity at exit: $275,425

Cash invested: $65,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78052

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,731 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,221
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $503/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,764

Max offer price $228,344

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $40	+0% $-26	+5% $-92	+10% $-436
Rent	-10% $-163	-5% $-94	+0% $-26	+5% $43	+10% $111
Rate	-1.0pp $91	-0.5pp $33	base $-26	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,225
• Closing costs: $6,987
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16004 Tassel Br Lytle, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1558	$1,885	$1.21	0d	1	0.16mi
14838 Lytle Somerset Rd Lytle, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,250	$1.32	45d	1	0.75mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $232,900 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $232,900 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $232,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $232,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $232,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $232,900 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $232,900 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $232,900 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $232,900 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $232,900 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $232,900 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $232,900 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $232,900 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $232,900 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $232,900 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $232,900 Back on Market 44 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $232,900 Back on Market 43 DOM
18. 2026-05-22
    status Back on Market
19. 2026-04-15
    historical
20. 2026-04-11
    price $232,900
21. 2026-04-10
    status Back on Market
22. 2026-04-08
    historical
23. 2026-04-02
    status Back on Market
24. 2026-04-01
    historical
25. 2026-03-26
    status Back on Market
26. 2026-03-19
    status Pending
27. 2026-03-19
    historical
28. 2026-03-12
    status Back on Market
29. 2026-02-16
    status Pending
30. 2026-02-06
    listed $229,900 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $503 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,262 · $355/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,759/yr (+$313/mo · 747.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,772
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,046
• − Property taxes: −$503
• − Insurance: −$1,164
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,662
• − Management: −$1,662
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$6,775
• Taxable loss: −$4,436
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,065
• After-tax cash flow: $755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lytle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828650
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,478
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8004
• State rank: #690 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lytle

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #404
• US rank: #8374

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lytle, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,221

Population outlook (Atascosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,233 people
• By 2030: 61,729 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 71,122 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 80,906 · +41.4%
• By 2075: 106,134 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 122,415 · +113.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% White 32% Two or more races 22% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Greek 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 44% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atascosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.9% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.25%
• Current HPI: 221.8201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $232,900 LERA
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-03-26 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-03-19 Pending — LERA
• 2026-03-19 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-03-12 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-02-16 Pending — LERA
• 2026-02-06 Listed $229,900 LERA

Property tax history

-12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $503 · -12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.