2156 Salinas Dr · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$227,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,715 sqft · Land · 53 Days on market

Built 2026 $133/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW! Lennar Texas Villas "Monarch" Plan with Brick Elevation "E" in Sierra Vista! This new two-story paired home features an inviting open-concept floorplan on the first level that blends a modern kitchen and comfortable Great Room. All three bedrooms are located on the second floor for optimal comfort and privacy, including a lavish owner’s suite with a full bathroom, steps from a versatile loft. Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• $133 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sierra Vista HOA; Annual association fee (includes clubhouse)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage
• Utilities: Has heating and cooling
• Home design: Residential property; 2 stories; Under construction (new construction)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Brick and cement siding exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (first floor)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (second floor); Additional bedrooms (second floor)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Bonus room (second floor); Family room (first floor)

🏗️ New construction. The $227,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $287,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $227k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $227k).
• Recommended offer: $220k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1139 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,190 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.67%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,490
• List price: $227,000
• Delta: -21.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-37,540
• Equity at exit: $42,866

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-38,417
• Equity at exit: $24,857

Cash invested: $80,497 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1139
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,625 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,508
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $807/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$133
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,313

Max offer price $287,490

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $409	-5% $328	+0% $246	+5% $165	+10% $84
Rent	-10% $39	-5% $143	+0% $246	+5% $350	+10% $454
Rate	-1.0pp $391	-0.5pp $320	base $246	+0.5pp $172	+1.0pp $96

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,872
• Closing costs: $8,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,700	$1.56	2d	6	0.16mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,469	$1.43	44d	7	0.16mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1653	$2,306	$1.40	2d	21	0.33mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	44d	1	0.42mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,886	$1.18	22d	1	0.50mi
10203 Karsten Blvd Rosharon, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$2,061	$2.20	2d	138	0.59mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	44d	1	0.80mi
10610 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,700	$1.74	44d	1	1.04mi
10622 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,775	$1.56	44d	1	1.07mi
1403 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2067	$3,450	$1.67	8d	1	1.08mi
10630 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	1940	$2,875	$1.48	3d	1	1.08mi
10507 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,650	$1.71	2d	1	1.11mi
10502 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,725	$1.69	2d	1	1.14mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	13d	1	1.15mi
1234 Scarlet Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,650	$1.71	2d	1	1.17mi
9901 Kilkenny St Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1735	$2,275	$1.31	5d	1	1.19mi
10538 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,775	$1.82	2d	1	1.22mi
2510 Green Jasper Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,375	$1.52	44d	1	1.22mi
10602 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1596	$2,850	$1.79	21d	1	1.23mi
10714 Cliffs View Dr Iowa Colony, TX	4.0	3.5	2070	$2,700	$1.30	44d	1	1.27mi
2523 Topaz Hill Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1857	$2,425	$1.31	17d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $133 · $1,596/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-16
   pricestatusdays on market $227,000 Pending 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,990 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,990 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,990 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,990 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,990 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,990 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $239,990 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $239,990 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,990 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,990 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,990 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-05-15
    price $254,640 544-char remark
14. 2026-04-30
    price $262,590 544-char remark
15. 2026-04-27
    price $258,740 544-char remark
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $279,990 Active 544-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $807 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,154 · $346/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,347/yr (+$279/mo · 414.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,104
• − Property taxes: −$807
• − Insurance: −$1,437
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,520
• − Management: −$2,520
• − HOA: −$1,596
• − Depreciation: −$8,363
• Taxable loss: −$1,843
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$442
• After-tax cash flow: $3,400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $227,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $239,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $241,140 HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $254,640 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $262,590 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $258,740 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $279,990 HARMLS