Kingsmark Plan · Miami Heights, OH 45002

$454,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,798 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Kingsmark is one of Cristo Homes' most refined Prestige floor plans, offering approximately 2,798 square feet of well-appointed living space across two stories. With 4 to 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and thoughtful structural options including a guest suite configuration, the Kingsmark is ideal for buyers searching for new construction homes near Cincinnati, OH that combine generous space with the kind of finish-level details typically reserved for higher-tier custom builds. The main level features 9-foot ceilings throughout and an open kitchen design with a large island and walk-in pantry, ideal for the way modern families actually cook, eat, and entertain. The kitchen flows directly into a

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Transom windows
• Large island

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• TRANSOM WINDOWS
• MUDROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: 454000

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Kingsmark)
• Exterior features: Living area of 2798

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan model: Kingsmark; Active listing

🏗️ New construction. The $454,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $505,492.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $454k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($740/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $450k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $440k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.5% in Miami Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#752 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Three Rivers Local (rural): math 58% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #256 of 656 in OH (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Three Rivers Elementary (math 65% / reading 52%, grade B-, #708 of 1,584 statewide, top 45%, 793 students, 35% FRL); Taylor Middle School (math 54% / reading 65%, grade B, #271 of 654 statewide, top 43%, 665 students, 40% FRL); Taylor High School (math 24% / reading 67%, grade D-, #463 of 781 statewide, top 59%, 644 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 801 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (190 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,500/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($85k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($440k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $440,380 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.52%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $505,492
• List price: $454,000
• Delta: -10.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
191 Edgefield Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,839 (+2%)	8mo	$500,000	$176	80
106 Reids Way	0.18mi	4/3.5	2,915 (+4%)	8mo	$500,000	$172	74
8708 Quietwood Ln	0.22mi	4/3.5	3,040 (+9%)	2mo	$467,000	$154	69
605 Coleberry Ct	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,778 (-1%)	10mo	$450,000	$162	61
3891 Haley Ln	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,832 (+1%)	3mo	$506,000	$179	61
587 Laurelwood Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,790 (-0%)	12mo	$465,000	$167	58
702 Rosewynne Ct	0.54mi	4/3.5	3,064 (+10%)	5mo	$450,000	$147	50
583 Laurelwood Dr	0.68mi	4/3.5	2,700 (-4%)	12mo	$500,000	$185	48
511 Laurelwood Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,485 (-11%)	13mo	$433,000	$174	46
3736 Bremen Pass	0.69mi	4/2.5	3,134 (+12%)	6mo	$521,500	$166	42
3796 Bremen Pass	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,578 (-8%)	14mo	$512,000	$199	42
615 Coleberry Ct	0.54mi	4/3.5	3,152 (+13%)	13mo	$575,000	$182	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-77,916
• Equity at exit: $75,371

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-62,516
• Equity at exit: $43,706

Cash invested: $141,538 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45002

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,651
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$632 /mo · $7,582/yr
• Insurance: −$211
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$945
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,422

Max offer price $505,492

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $411	-5% $236	+0% $62	+5% $-113	+10% $-288
Rent	-10% $-294	-5% $-116	+0% $62	+5% $239	+10% $417
Rate	-1.0pp $316	-0.5pp $190	base $62	+0.5pp $-69	+1.0pp $-203

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $126,373
• Closing costs: $15,165
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8705 Quietwood Ln Cleves, OH	4.0	2.5	3708	$4,500	$1.21	46d	1	0.23mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $454,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $454,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $454,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $454,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $454,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $454,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $454,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $454,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $454,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $454,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $454,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $454,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $454,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $454,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $454,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $454,000 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    price $454,000 1001-char remark
18. 2026-05-04
    listed $453,400 Active 1001-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,315
• − Property taxes: −$7,582
• − Insurance: −$2,527
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,320
• − Management: −$4,320
• − Depreciation: −$14,705
• Taxable loss: −$7,770
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,865
• After-tax cash flow: $2,605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, exterior painting, and flooring. Significant value can be added through these improvements, making it a good investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Exposed structure indicates severe damage
• Major siding — Peeling and chipping paint
• Major flooring — Bare dirt indicates no flooring
• Major exterior paint — Chipping paint

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value
• Resale exterior painting — Fresh paint would enhance curb appeal and home value
• Resale flooring installation — New flooring would make the home more attractive and functional
• Both exterior landscaping — Landscaping would improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Exposed structure indicates severe damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
siding · Peeling and chipping paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Bare dirt indicates no flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Chipping paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Resale exterior painting — Fresh paint would enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Resale flooring installation — New flooring would make the home more attractive and functional ↑
• Both exterior landscaping — Landscaping would improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Three Rivers Local
• NCES district ID: 3904739
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,973
• Composite: 52.85/100
• National rank: #1533
• State rank: #256 of 656 in OH

Livability — Miami Heights

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #752
• US rank: #13562

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Miami Heights, OH
• County: Hamilton · 838,887 people
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 14,647
• Household income: $84,597
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 12.0

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 826,054 people
• By 2030: 830,947 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 832,319 · +0.8%
• By 2050: 822,428 · -0.4%
• By 2075: 788,688 · -4.5%
• By 2100: 710,674 · -14.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: D (+14.9) · D 57.0% · R 42.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: 7.0pp · 2024: 14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.9 2020: D+15.9 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.62%
• Current HPI: 210.9397
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B