77854 Lumber Creek Blvd · Yulee, FL 32097

$340,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,843 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 212 Days on market

Built 2017 8,908 sqft lot Est $328k · at est. $56/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The beautiful Hillcrest floor plan by LGI Homes is located within the masterly planned community of Lumber Creek. This new one-story home features an open floor plan, 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms complete with more $10,000 in upgrades including energy-efficient appliances, custom build cabinets and an attached 2 car garage. This spacious home includes a master suite, complete with a full bath and walk in closet, as well as a utility room, covered back patio and front yard landscaping, all just steps from beautiful amenities including a refreshing swimming pool and a playground.

Key facts

• Plenty of storage
• Walk-in closet
• Large backyard

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PLENTY OF STORAGE
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATH
• LARGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-169 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Yulee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $221k; list at $340k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,811 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.13%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $328,054
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
77854 Lumber Creek Blvd	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,843 (0%)	2mo	$315,000	$171	99
77812 Lumber Creek Blvd	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,854 (+1%)	1mo	$337,500	$182	93
77795 Lumber Creek Blvd	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,854 (+1%)	4mo	$325,000	$175	88
77703 Lumber Creek Blvd	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,854 (+1%)	3mo	$375,000	$202	78
77814 Lumber Creek Blvd	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,629 (-12%)	2mo	$288,000	$177	70
77799 Lumber Creek Blvd	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,629 (-12%)	1mo	$298,000	$183	68
76264 Long Pond Loop	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,875 (+2%)	5mo	$327,000	$174	67
86648 Cartesian Pointe Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,941 (+5%)	1mo	$320,000	$165	66
86811 Cartesian Pointe Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,917 (+4%)	7mo	$350,000	$183	64
77723 Lumber Creek Blvd	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,629 (-12%)	2mo	$287,000	$176	58
77175 Sawmill Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,686 (-8%)	7mo	$324,900	$193	57
76073 Long Pond Loop	0.47mi	3/4.0 (-1)	1,710 (-7%)	6mo	$305,000	$178	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $174,067
• Equity at exit: $306,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.47×
• Total profit: $520,311
• Equity at exit: $660,545

Cash invested: $95,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,568 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,602/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$56
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,782

Max offer price $310,207

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $24	-5% $-72	+0% $-169	+5% $-265	+10% $-361
Rent	-10% $-372	-5% $-270	+0% $-169	+5% $-67	+10% $34
Rate	-1.0pp $3	-0.5pp $-82	base $-169	+0.5pp $-257	+1.0pp $-346

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,000
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
77822 Lumber Creek Blvd Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1543	$2,200	$1.43	25d	1	0.09mi
78295 Saddle Rock Rd Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,191	$1.19	25d	1	0.24mi
76031 Long Pond Loop Yulee, FL	3.0	2.5	2459	$2,500	$1.02	17d	1	0.41mi
86215 Buggy Ct Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1675	$2,295	$1.37	21d	1	1.10mi
86467 Moonlit Walk Cir Yulee, FL	4.0	3.0	2010	$3,100	$1.54	25d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $56 · $672/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-20
   price $340,000
3. 2025-10-29
   price $360,999
4. 2025-09-25
   price $362,999
5. 2025-08-30
   listed $367,999 Active
6. 2017-06-30
   soldstatus $220,900 587-char remark

   Show marketing remark (587 chars)

   The beautiful Hillcrest floor plan by LGI Homes is located within the masterly planned community of Lumber Creek. This new one-story home features an open floor plan, 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms complete with more $10,000 in upgrades including energy-efficient appliances, custom build cabinets and an attached 2 car garage. This spacious home includes a master suite, complete with a full bath and walk in closet, as well as a utility room, covered back patio and front yard landscaping, all just steps from beautiful amenities including a refreshing swimming pool and a playground.

7. 2017-04-07
   listed $220,900 587-char remark

   Show marketing remark (587 chars)

   The beautiful Hillcrest floor plan by LGI Homes is located within the masterly planned community of Lumber Creek. This new one-story home features an open floor plan, 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms complete with more $10,000 in upgrades including energy-efficient appliances, custom build cabinets and an attached 2 car garage. This spacious home includes a master suite, complete with a full bath and walk in closet, as well as a utility room, covered back patio and front yard landscaping, all just steps from beautiful amenities including a refreshing swimming pool and a playground.

8. 2016-09-16
   soldstatus $1,155,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,602 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,822 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: +$220/yr (+$18/mo · 8.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$2,602
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,465
• − Management: −$2,465
• − HOA: −$672
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$8,023
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,926
• After-tax cash flow: $-98/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Yulee

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #11615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 26,700
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-70.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — AINCAR
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $340,000 AINCAR
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $360,999 AINCAR
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $362,999 AINCAR
• 2025-08-30 Listed $367,999 AINCAR
• 2017-06-30 Sold (MLS) $220,900 realMLS
• 2017-04-07 Listed $220,900 realMLS
• 2016-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $1,155,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+42.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,602 · -44.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.