6550 Ponto Dr #135 · Carlsbad, CA 92011

$285,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1987 $247/sqft · at area comps Est $293k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Live the Southern California dream in this charming beach cottage just steps from the sand! Tucked in a private, quiet Carlsbad location with serene meadow views, this well-maintained 2-bedroom home with optional 3rd bedroom or office features numerous windows that fill the space with natural light, beautiful wood floors with inlays, and a flexible layout. Enjoy coastal living with ocean breezes, a wrap-around wood deck, private courtyard, and low-maintenance outdoor space—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Additional features include a large storage shed, carport, and in-home laundry and community clubhouse, game room, sauna, pool and spa. Located in a desirable all-ages park surr

Key facts

• Community clubhouse
• Sauna
• Game room

Tags

• PRIVATE COURTYARD
• LOW MAINTENANCE OUTDOOR SPACE
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE
• GAME ROOM
• SAUNA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in CARLSBAD SOUTH subdivision (Lanikai Lane building); Directions: Go past Visitor Center, hang left, then right towards back of the park. Unit 135.
• HOA & community: Community clubhouse; Meeting room; Picnic area; Barbecue area; Pool; Spa/Hot Tub; Fitness center; Recreation facilities; Security (included in association fees)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Security: Security guard; 24-hour security
• Utilities: Sewer connected; Water connected; Electricity available and connected; Natural gas available and connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Wrap-around deck; Partial fencing; Community pool; Spa/Hot tub; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas oven; Ice maker; Gas range; Gas cooktop; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Sauna; Ceiling fans; Has view; Smoke detectors

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $285k).
• Recommended offer: $281k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 2.1% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($159k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $80k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.20%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,929
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -2.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6550 Ponto Dr #135	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	1mo	$265,000	$230	99
6550 Ponto Dr #110	0.04mi	2/1.5	1,100 (-4%)	3mo	$310,000	$282	86
6550 Ponto Dr #34	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-10%)	13mo	$150,000	$144	72
6550 Ponto Dr #83	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+4%)	22mo	$295,000	$246	70
6550 Ponto Dr #143	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+4%)	21mo	$200,000	$167	68
7028 San Bartolo St	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	18mo	$308,000	$247	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $137,671
• Equity at exit: $108,557

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.39×
• Total profit: $350,308
• Equity at exit: $153,414

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92011

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,482 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $631/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$941
• Net cashflow: $1,875

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,109

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6790 Embarcadero Ln Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	2.0–2.5	2104	$5,750	$2.73	5d	1	0.17mi
820 Windcrest Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1404	$5,581	$3.98	18d	1	0.43mi
6923 Whitecap Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$5,250	$4.21	43d	1	0.57mi
902 Caminito Madrigal Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.0	897	$3,200	$3.57	10d	1	0.64mi
916 Caminito Estrada Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1188	$3,650	$3.07	43d	1	0.66mi
908 Caminito Madrigal Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	897	$4,500	$5.02	43d	1	0.68mi
908 Caminito Madrigal Unit D Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.5	897	$4,500	$5.02	43d	1	0.69mi
6675 Paseo del Norte Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$4,300	$4.48	43d	1	0.70mi
6675 Paseo del Norte Unit A Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$3,850	$4.01	5d	1	0.70mi
6677 Paseo Del Norte Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$4,500	$4.69	43d	1	0.71mi
6677 Paseo del Norte Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.0	959	$3,950	$4.12	43d	1	0.71mi
6555 Sea Gate Rd Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1114	$4,095	$3.67	1d	3	0.75mi
925 Wind Drift Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.5	1110	$3,895	$3.51	43d	1	0.76mi
6938 Seascape Dr Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$3,775	$4.66	3d	9	0.84mi
6811 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,850	$2.98	43d	1	0.88mi
6910 Peachtree Rd Unit 1546353P Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1399	$6,129	$4.38	16d	1	0.99mi
1205 Aviara Pkwy Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	917	$4,880	$5.32	2d	42	1.37mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 1168-char remark
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $285,000 Active 1168-char remark
3. 2025-05-20
   historical
4. 2025-03-29
   price $359,000
5. 2025-02-23
   listed $369,000 Active
6. 2025-02-12
   historical
7. 2024-10-04
   price $379,000
8. 2024-09-08
   price $389,999
9. 2024-07-19
   listed $399,000 Active
10. 2019-12-30
    soldstatus $62,000 Sold
11. 2019-12-30
    soldstatus $62,000 Closed Sale
12. 2019-12-11
    status Pending Sale
13. 2019-12-11
    status Pending
14. 2019-11-06
    status Active
15. 2019-11-06
    status Active
16. 2019-10-23
    status Pending Sale
17. 2019-10-23
    status Pending
18. 2019-07-02
    status Active
19. 2019-07-02
    status Active
20. 2019-07-01
    historical
21. 2019-06-30
    historical
22. 2019-06-25
    price $70,000
23. 2019-06-25
    price $70,000
24. 2019-03-27
    price $119,888
25. 2019-03-27
    price $119,888
26. 2019-03-07
    price $125,000
27. 2019-03-07
    price $125,000
28. 2019-03-05
    listed $149,000 Active
29. 2019-03-05
    listed $149,000 Active
30. 2019-03-02
    historical
31. 2019-03-02
    historical
32. 2019-01-16
    listed $150,000 Active
33. 2019-01-16
    listed $150,000 Active
34. 2018-12-22
    historical
35. 2018-12-11
    price $150,000
36. 2018-11-05
    listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $631 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,166 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,535/yr (+$128/mo · 243.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$631
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,303
• − Management: −$4,303
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable income: $18,870
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,529
• After-tax cash flow: $17,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,190
• Household income: $159,235
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 714.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 399.8502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+51.4% since first listed

37 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) $265,000 SDMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — SDMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $285,000 SDMLS
• 2025-05-20 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-03-29 Price Changed $359,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-23 Listed $369,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-12 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-10-04 Price Changed $379,000 CRMLS
• 2024-09-08 Price Changed $389,999 CRMLS
• 2024-07-19 Listed $399,000 CRMLS
• 2019-12-30 Sold (MLS) $62,000 SDMLS
• 2019-12-30 Sold (MLS) $62,000 CRMLS
• 2019-12-11 Pending — CRMLS
• 2019-12-11 Pending — SDMLS
• 2019-11-06 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2019-11-06 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2019-10-23 Pending — CRMLS
• 2019-10-23 Pending — SDMLS
• 2019-07-02 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2019-07-02 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2019-07-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2019-06-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2019-06-25 Price Changed $70,000 CRMLS
• 2019-06-25 Price Changed $70,000 SDMLS
• 2019-03-27 Price Changed $119,888 SDMLS
• 2019-03-27 Price Changed $119,888 CRMLS
• 2019-03-07 Price Changed $125,000 SDMLS
• 2019-03-07 Price Changed $125,000 CRMLS
• 2019-03-05 Listed $149,000 SDMLS
• 2019-03-05 Listed $149,000 CRMLS
• 2019-03-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2019-03-02 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2019-01-16 Listed $150,000 CRMLS
• 2019-01-16 Listed $150,000 SDMLS
• 2018-12-22 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2018-12-11 Price Changed $150,000 CRMLS
• 2018-11-05 Listed $175,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2013): $631 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.