2227 Quail Valley East Dr · Missouri City, TX 77459

$238,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,862 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 166 Days on market

Built 1975 6,412 sqft lot $128/sqft · at area comps Est $248k · at est. $10/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming single-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Features include a high-ceiling family room with fireplace, open living/dining layout, spacious primary suite, and a large backyard perfect for outdoor activities. Walking distance to community amenities and close to major highways for easy commuting.

Key facts

• 6,412 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-20/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.6% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1228 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,124
• List price: $238,000
• Delta: -4.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2230 Quail Valley East Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,838 (-1%)	2mo	$224,900	$122	90
2726 Valley Forest Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,937 (+4%)	4mo	$298,000	$154	74
3290 Hunters Glen Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,676 (-10%)	1mo	$210,000	$125	68
3019 Quail Valley East Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,868 (+0%)	4mo	$264,900	$142	68
3502 Quail Meadow Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,740 (-7%)	2mo	$249,000	$143	61
3710 Quail Meadow Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,676 (-10%)	3mo	$250,000	$149	52
3819 Glen Cove Cir	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,750 (-6%)	2mo	$228,000	$130	52
1747 Hilton Head Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,030 (+9%)	2mo	$300,000	$148	52
1731 Gray Hawk Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,740 (-7%)	3mo	$310,000	$178	50
1927 S Bend Cir	0.57mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,985 (+7%)	4mo	$265,000	$134	50
1615 Turtle Creek Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,721 (-8%)	2mo	$275,000	$160	48
3131 Quail Valley East Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,997 (+7%)	2mo	$289,500	$145	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-31,716
• Equity at exit: $49,915

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-40,957
• Equity at exit: $46,234

Cash invested: $66,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1228
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,304 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax from tax record: −$465 /mo · $5,576/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,306

Max offer price $237,713

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $133	-5% $66	+0% $-2	+5% $-69	+10% $-136
Rent	-10% $-184	-5% $-93	+0% $-2	+5% $89	+10% $180
Rate	-1.0pp $118	-0.5pp $59	base $-2	+0.5pp $-63	+1.0pp $-126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,500
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2319 Quail Valley East Dr Missouri City, TX	5.0	3.0	2235	$2,000	$0.89	45d	1	0.14mi
2307 Hilton Head Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2606	$2,239	$0.86	18d	1	0.17mi
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	45d	1	0.50mi
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	45d	1	0.60mi
4039 Mission Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2364	$2,495	$1.06	23d	1	0.92mi
2910 Fawn Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2330	$2,220	$0.95	45d	1	0.94mi
3912 Cedar Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2151	$2,200	$1.02	22d	1	1.07mi
1323 Park Crest Dr Missouri City, TX	5.0	3.0	2607	$2,600	$1.00	45d	1	1.09mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	22d	1	1.10mi
3327 Shady Glen Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2232	$2,250	$1.01	14d	1	1.19mi
2120 Bermuda Dunes Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,200	$1.05	25d	1	1.43mi
2026 Summer Place Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,861	$1.01	22d	1	1.44mi
22 Chapparal Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,000	$1.33	45d	1	1.49mi
1806 Courtside Place Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	1974	$1,915	$0.97	14d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $238,000 Active 166 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,000 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,000 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,000 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,000 Active 160 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,000 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,000 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $238,000 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $238,000 Active 149 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,000 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,000 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,000 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,000 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-01-06
    listed $238,000 Active 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Charming single-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Features include a high-ceiling family room with fireplace, open living/dining layout, spacious primary suite, and a large backyard perfect for outdoor activities. Walking distance to community amenities and close to major highways for easy commuting.

15. 2026-01-05
    historical
16. 2025-11-17
    price $249,900
17. 2025-11-17
    listed $2,499,900 Active
18. 2023-05-16
    soldstatus
19. 2023-05-15
    soldstatus Sold
20. 2023-03-28
    status Pending
21. 2023-03-14
    listed $258,000 Active
22. 2023-02-24
    historical
23. 2023-02-13
    listed $250,000 Active
24. 2021-06-07
    soldstatus
25. 2021-06-04
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2021-05-17
    status Pending
27. 2021-05-16
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,576 · $465/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,576 · $465/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,650
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,332
• − Property taxes: −$5,576
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,212
• − Management: −$2,212
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$6,924
• Taxable loss: −$3,915
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$940
• After-tax cash flow: $920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+58.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Listed $238,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $2,499,900 HARMLS
• 2023-05-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-03-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-03-14 Listed $258,000 HARMLS
• 2023-02-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-02-13 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2021-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-05-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-16 Listed $149,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,576 · -8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.