3896 Picciola Rd #224 · Fruitland Park, FL 34731

$119,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 999 sqft · Condo · 138 Days on market

Built 1968 $181/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Wake up to views of LAKE GRIFFIN in this charming FURNISHED 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home located in a sought-after 55+ community, Griffin Co-Op, in Fruitland Park, Florida. Perfectly positioned to capture peaceful water scenery, this home offers a bright, functional layout designed for comfortable Florida living. Enjoy your morning coffee while overlooking the lake, or unwind in the evenings with tranquil sunsets right outside your door. The community provides a relaxed, low-maintenance lifestyle, ideal for full-time residents or seasonal homeowners looking to escape the cold. This home is perfectly positioned for those who love the water, relaxation, and active Florida living. A standout featu

Key facts

• Shuffleboard courts
• Walk in storage room
• Community clubhouse

Tags

• VIEWS OF LAKE GRIFFIN
• PERSONAL BOAT SLIP
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE
• SHUFFLEBOARD COURTS
• WALK IN STORAGE ROOM
• LAKE ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Near marina with lake view and lake access (Lake Griffin, chain of lakes); assigned boat slip, boathouse, fishing pier, covered lift; private lake dues required; Lot features: Near marina, one-way street, paved; Road surface: Asphalt/paved on public maintained road; Total acreage: Less than 1/4 acre
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $181; total annual fees $2,172
• HOA & community: HOA required (monthly fee $181); Association amenities: Cable TV, Clubhouse, Maintenance, Recreation facilities, Shuffleboard court; Association fee includes common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, structure and grounds maintenance, management, private road, recreational facilities, sewer, trash and water; Community features: Clubhouse, Community mailbox, Deed restrictions, Golf carts allowed, Pool, Special community restrictions; Senior community; Pets allowed with number limit

Exterior

• Parking: Boat parking; Common parking; Covered parking; Golf cart parking; Guest parking; Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected
• Home design: Mobile home (double wide); One story; North facing
• Construction: Metal siding; Membrane roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as double wide
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed and rear/side porches; Porch; Storage; Boat house; Gazebo; Other exterior structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Thermostat; Bonus room; Florida room; Storage rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.0% in Fruitland Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#447 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.63%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-9,202
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $5,338
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34731

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,468 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$181
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,270

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1414 N Lake View Ave Leesburg, FL	4.0	1.0–3.0	1700	$1,440	$0.85	2d	3	0.37mi
2117 Citrus Blvd Unit 6 Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,000	$1.25	1d	1	0.71mi
2511 Sennett Dr Leesburg, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0	1215	$1,508	$1.24	23d	1	0.83mi
2400 Silver Pointe Cir Leesburg, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	837	$1,050	$1.25	23d	1	0.90mi
1 Herald Dr Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0–1.5	970	$1,524	$1.57	4d	4	1.43mi
1223 Pamela St Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0	894	$1,399	$1.56	23d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $181 · $2,172/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $119,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-03-25
    price $119,000
15. 2026-03-11
    price $129,000
16. 2026-02-17
    price $134,000
17. 2026-02-01
    listed $142,000 Active
18. 2005-02-18
    listed $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,614
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,409
• − Management: −$1,409
• − HOA: −$2,172
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $116
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$28
• After-tax cash flow: $1,846/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fruitland Park

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #447
• US rank: #8098

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 12,196
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,196
• Household income: $66,300
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 269.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.91%
• Current HPI: 318.8206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+198.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $119,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $134,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-01 Listed $142,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-18 Listed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid