98 Guayacan · Carrizo Hill, TX 78834

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 303 Days on market

Built 1975 9,452 sqft lot $66/sqft · 30% below area Est $193k · 30% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home includes two living rooms, with two of the bedrooms and a bathroom located upstairs. Sitting on a .217-acre lot, it offers a layout that works well for a variety of needs. Only 5 miles from Carrizo Springs High School, it could be a great fit for a family, first-time buyer, or even as an investment property.

Key facts

• 9,452 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1975

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,500 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Carrizo Springs CISD (town): math 17% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #780 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Dimmit County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Dimmit County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.83%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,991
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -30.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $53,398
• Equity at exit: $89,921

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.93×
• Total profit: $148,369
• Equity at exit: $167,619

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78834

• Home prices YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,301 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,340/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,109

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 303 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 302 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 301 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 300 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 299 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 297 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 296 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 294 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 293 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 292 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 291 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 286 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 285 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 284 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 283 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    price $135,000 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home includes two living rooms, with two of the bedrooms and a bathroom located upstairs. Sitting on a .217-acre lot, it offers a layout that works well for a variety of needs. Only 5 miles from Carrizo Springs High School, it could be a great fit for a family, first-time buyer, or even as an investment property.

17. 2026-02-06
    price $140,000 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home includes two living rooms, with two of the bedrooms and a bathroom located upstairs. Sitting on a .217-acre lot, it offers a layout that works well for a variety of needs. Only 5 miles from Carrizo Springs High School, it could be a great fit for a family, first-time buyer, or even as an investment property.

18. 2025-11-10
    price $150,000 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home includes two living rooms, with two of the bedrooms and a bathroom located upstairs. Sitting on a .217-acre lot, it offers a layout that works well for a variety of needs. Only 5 miles from Carrizo Springs High School, it could be a great fit for a family, first-time buyer, or even as an investment property.

19. 2025-10-14
    price $160,000 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home includes two living rooms, with two of the bedrooms and a bathroom located upstairs. Sitting on a .217-acre lot, it offers a layout that works well for a variety of needs. Only 5 miles from Carrizo Springs High School, it could be a great fit for a family, first-time buyer, or even as an investment property.

20. 2025-09-05
    price $170,000 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home includes two living rooms, with two of the bedrooms and a bathroom located upstairs. Sitting on a .217-acre lot, it offers a layout that works well for a variety of needs. Only 5 miles from Carrizo Springs High School, it could be a great fit for a family, first-time buyer, or even as an investment property.

21. 2025-08-20
    listed $175,000 New 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home includes two living rooms, with two of the bedrooms and a bathroom located upstairs. Sitting on a .217-acre lot, it offers a layout that works well for a variety of needs. Only 5 miles from Carrizo Springs High School, it could be a great fit for a family, first-time buyer, or even as an investment property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,340 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,131/yr (+$94/mo · 84.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,614
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,340
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,249
• − Management: −$1,249
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$388
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$93
• After-tax cash flow: $1,918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carrizo Springs CISD
• NCES district ID: 4812990
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $32,354
• Composite: 17.03/100
• National rank: #9127
• State rank: #780 of 826 in TX

Livability — Carrizo Hill

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1500
• US rank: #25667

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carrizo Hill, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,204

Population outlook (Dimmit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,089 people
• By 2030: 14,217 · +8.6%
• By 2040: 16,685 · +27.5%
• By 2050: 19,361 · +47.9%
• By 2075: 26,356 · +101.4%
• By 2100: 31,128 · +137.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 87% Two or more races 59% White 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 78% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Dimmit

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.5% · R 48.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.4pp toward R · 2008: 50.7pp · 2024: 3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.3 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+37.2 2012: D+47.3 2008: D+50.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Current HPI: 127.0655
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $135,000 LERA
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $140,000 LERA
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $150,000 LERA
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $160,000 LERA
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $170,000 LERA
• 2025-08-20 Listed $175,000 LERA

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,340 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.