2902 County Road 310 · Petersburg, TX 79250

$119,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 544 Days on market

Built 1965 5.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Country living at its best, enjoy the peacefulness that you find only in the country. This is your blank canvas, paint it, design it as you wish. 5.6 acres of land. Property offers 2 homes and a barn. #-1 1456 sqft, 2bed, and 1 bath. #-2 432 sqft, 1 bed, and 1-bath. Barn 800 sqft. Homesite 1 Acre of land, Improved pasture 4.60 acreage of land. Motiviated sellers will review all offers.

Key facts

• 5.6 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1965

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 5.6 acres; Dirt road access

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Detached carport; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Private water source / Public / Well (listed); No utility hookups listed
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fixer condition
• Construction: Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Other construction materials; Built on a single story (one-level living implied)
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Barn(s)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No central heating (listed as none); Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Other interior features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#637 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Petersburg ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #387 of 1,141 in TX (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Hale County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $450 of equity ($823 loan paydown + $-373 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Hale County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 544 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 544 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.44%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $32,032
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2001 Avenue H	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+8%)	5mo	$35,000	$22	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $6,174
• Equity at exit: $32,700

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $33,731
• Equity at exit: $37,856

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79250

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,234 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,469/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,008

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $246	-5% $213	+0% $179	+5% $145	+10% $112
Rent	-10% $81	-5% $130	+0% $179	+5% $228	+10% $276
Rate	-1.0pp $239	-0.5pp $209	base $179	+0.5pp $148	+1.0pp $117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $119,000 Active 544 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $119,000 Active 543 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $119,000 Active 542 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,000 Active 541 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $119,000 Active 540 DOM
6. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
7. 2026-01-19
   price $119,000
8. 2024-11-05
   listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,469 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,178 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$709/yr (+$59/mo · 48.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,810
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,469
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,185
• − Management: −$1,185
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $249
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$60
• After-tax cash flow: $2,087/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Petersburg ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834680
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,099
• Composite: 43.98/100
• National rank: #6270
• State rank: #387 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Petersburg

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #637
• US rank: #12148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,089

Population outlook (Hale County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,851 people
• By 2030: 29,158 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 25,681 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 22,420 · -27.3%
• By 2075: 15,857 · -48.6%
• By 2100: 10,500 · -66.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 40% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Hale

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.0) · D 20.5% · R 78.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -58.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.0 2020: R+51.1 2016: R+48.4 2012: R+47.8 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Current HPI: 91.4792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $119,000 LARMLS
• 2024-11-05 Listed $120,000 LARMLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,469 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.