#7 Victory Ct · Sullivan, IL 61951

$150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,052 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 1998 Good condition $143/sqft · 57% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Duplex with two bedrooms and one bathroom. Easy one level living. Spacious laundry and utility room. Open kitchen to dining area. Large bathroom. Sliders to back deck. All new appliances including AC/furnace and new roof. Call today for a showing.

Key facts

• Spacious laundry
• New appliances
• Back deck

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• SPACIOUS LAUNDRY
• OPEN KITCHEN
• BACK DECK
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#647 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Sullivan CUSD 300 (town): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #338 of 620 in IL (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 42 units permitted in Moultrie County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Moultrie County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.22%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,829
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: 56.53%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
607 S Faith Ln	0.24mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,008 (-4%)	2mo	$130,000	$129	74
15 E Louis St	0.66mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,056 (+0%)	0mo	$132,500	$125	62
425 S Polk St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (+0%)	6mo	$95,000	$90	51
922 S Washington St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,058 (+1%)	7mo	$145,000	$137	50
520 Camfield St	0.53mi	3/1.0 (-1)	943 (-10%)	3mo	$136,500	$145	46
804 S Washington St	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,127 (+7%)	2mo	$118,000	$105	46
817 S Madison St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (+4%)	6mo	$129,000	$118	46
310 Wright St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-5%)	7mo	$117,000	$117	43
616 S Main St	0.59mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,134 (+8%)	15mo	$112,000	$99	40
512 N Graham St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,110 (+6%)	23mo	$145,000	$131	38
702 S Madison St	0.70mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (+9%)	19mo	$125,000	$109	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-14,884
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-764
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61951

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,499 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $251	-5% $199	+0% $148	+5% $96	+10% $44
Rent	-10% $29	-5% $88	+0% $148	+5% $207	+10% $266
Rate	-1.0pp $223	-0.5pp $186	base $148	+0.5pp $109	+1.0pp $69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1612 S Hamilton St Sullivan, IL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1057	$1,499	$1.42	14d	3	1.11mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $150,000 Active 247-char remark
2. 2005-03-01
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,439
• − Management: −$1,439
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$656
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$157
• After-tax cash flow: $1,929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with minimal cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sullivan CUSD 300
• NCES district ID: 1738130
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $47,763
• Composite: 21.41/100
• National rank: #8346
• State rank: #338 of 620 in IL

Livability — Sullivan

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #647
• US rank: #13204

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sullivan, IL
• Population (ZIP): 7,654

Population outlook (Moultrie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,766 people
• By 2030: 14,490 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 13,848 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 13,063 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 10,862 · -26.4%
• By 2100: 7,963 · -46.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · German/W. Germanic 8% Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Moultrie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 24.8% · R 73.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -49.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+49.0 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+27.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.15%
• Current HPI: 208.2808
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B