2650 W Union Hills Dr #135 · Phoenix, AZ 85027

$82,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured · 123 Days on market

Built 1996 Fair condition $46/sqft · 34% above area Est $62k · 34% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This adorable Large 3-bedroom manufactured home awaits you in the desirable Friendly Village of Orangewood! Inside, you'll find spacious living areas with wood-look floors, vaulted ceilings for a feeling of openness, abundant natural light, and a soothing palette. Prepare delicious meals in the well-appointed kitchen, showcasing oak cabinetry, tiled counters, stainless steel appliances, and an island. The main suite promises a good night's sleep, offering a closet and a full ensuite for privacy. Enjoy your morning coffee under the cozy covered patio, and visit the community's pool, spa, golf, clubhouse, and other amenities for fun times! Plenty of storage space!What's not to love? Make it yours!

Key facts

• Tiled counters
• Oak cabinetry
• Covered patio

Tags

• WOOD-LOOK FLOORS
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• OAK CABINETRY
• TILED COUNTERS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $83k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.7% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Park Meadows Elementary School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #289 of 1,109 statewide, top 27%, 600 students, 54% FRL); Deer Valley Middle School (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #105 of 218 statewide, top 49%, 537 students, 65% FRL); Barry Goldwater High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #147 of 381 statewide, top 38%, 1,641 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 21% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Deer Valley Unified District (4246) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 174 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $573 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,952 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.10%
• DSCR: 3.45
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $61,647
• List price: $82,900
• Delta: 34.48%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2650 W Union Hills Dr #8	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-14%)	2mo	$65,000	$42	69
2650 W Union Hills Dr #138	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-14%)	5mo	$74,000	$48	63
2650 W Union Hills Dr #367	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-14%)	17mo	$112,000	$73	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $48,403
• Equity at exit: $12,361

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.57×
• Total profit: $106,193
• Equity at exit: $7,168

Cash invested: $23,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85027

• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,074 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$104 /mo · $1,244/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $1,066

Break-even live

Break-even rent $725

Max offer price $82,900

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,123	-5% $1,094	+0% $1,066	+5% $1,037	+10% $1,009
Rent	-10% $902	-5% $984	+0% $1,066	+5% $1,148	+10% $1,230
Rate	-1.0pp $1,108	-0.5pp $1,087	base $1,066	+0.5pp $1,044	+1.0pp $1,023

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,725
• Closing costs: $2,487
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18250 N 25th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$2,028	$2.04	0d	18	0.46mi
2931 W Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1860	$2,395	$1.29	45d	1	0.46mi
18422 N 30th Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1604	$2,275	$1.42	26d	1	0.48mi
3010 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,844	$1.89	3d	80	0.56mi
18001 N 29th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,800	$1.20	45d	1	0.56mi
2953 W Libby St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,095	$1.28	45d	1	0.71mi
2431 W Shady Glen Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,155	$1.36	9d	1	0.92mi
3250 W Helena Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,450	$1.32	26d	1	1.05mi
2421 W Anderson Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	2243	$2,149	$0.96	5d	1	1.07mi
2421 W Anderson Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	2243	$2,200	$0.98	26d	1	1.07mi
18435 N 36th Ave Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1386	$2,400	$1.73	45d	1	1.09mi
2018 W Meadow Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1659	$1,965	$1.18	1d	1	1.16mi
2902 W Irma Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,295	$1.48	45d	1	1.17mi
20227 N 21st Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,500	$1.17	45d	1	1.18mi
1750 W Union Hills Dr #91 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1680	$1,900	$1.13	7d	1	1.20mi
20622 N 29th Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1320	$2,600	$1.97	26d	1	1.22mi
1636 W Taro Ln Unit Labs Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1672	$2,550	$1.53	45d	1	1.33mi
16623 N 29th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1430	$2,050	$1.43	0d	1	1.38mi
3637 W Angela Dr Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1677	$2,095	$1.25	1d	1	1.40mi
2206 W Monona Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1231	$2,049	$1.66	21d	1	1.41mi
2206 W Monona Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1231	$1,949	$1.58	3d	1	1.41mi
1708 W Behrend Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1320	$1,761	$1.33	9d	1	1.41mi
1547 W Kerry Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1314	$2,195	$1.67	45d	1	1.43mi
1633 W Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1441	$1,766	$1.23	1d	1	1.44mi
17617 N 17th Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1353	$2,100	$1.55	5d	1	1.46mi
3011 W Zachary Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,945	$1.47	9d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,900 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,900 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,900 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,900 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,900 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,900 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,900 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,900 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $82,900 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $82,900 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $82,900 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $82,900 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $82,900 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,900 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $84,900 704-char remark

    Show marketing remark (704 chars)

    This adorable Large 3-bedroom manufactured home awaits you in the desirable Friendly Village of Orangewood! Inside, you'll find spacious living areas with wood-look floors, vaulted ceilings for a feeling of openness, abundant natural light, and a soothing palette. Prepare delicious meals in the well-appointed kitchen, showcasing oak cabinetry, tiled counters, stainless steel appliances, and an island. The main suite promises a good night's sleep, offering a closet and a full ensuite for privacy. Enjoy your morning coffee under the cozy covered patio, and visit the community's pool, spa, golf, clubhouse, and other amenities for fun times! Plenty of storage space!What's not to love? Make it yours!

17. 2026-05-05
    status Active 704-char remark

    Show marketing remark (704 chars)

    This adorable Large 3-bedroom manufactured home awaits you in the desirable Friendly Village of Orangewood! Inside, you'll find spacious living areas with wood-look floors, vaulted ceilings for a feeling of openness, abundant natural light, and a soothing palette. Prepare delicious meals in the well-appointed kitchen, showcasing oak cabinetry, tiled counters, stainless steel appliances, and an island. The main suite promises a good night's sleep, offering a closet and a full ensuite for privacy. Enjoy your morning coffee under the cozy covered patio, and visit the community's pool, spa, golf, clubhouse, and other amenities for fun times! Plenty of storage space!What's not to love? Make it yours!

18. 2026-04-17
    status Pending 704-char remark

    Show marketing remark (704 chars)

    This adorable Large 3-bedroom manufactured home awaits you in the desirable Friendly Village of Orangewood! Inside, you'll find spacious living areas with wood-look floors, vaulted ceilings for a feeling of openness, abundant natural light, and a soothing palette. Prepare delicious meals in the well-appointed kitchen, showcasing oak cabinetry, tiled counters, stainless steel appliances, and an island. The main suite promises a good night's sleep, offering a closet and a full ensuite for privacy. Enjoy your morning coffee under the cozy covered patio, and visit the community's pool, spa, golf, clubhouse, and other amenities for fun times! Plenty of storage space!What's not to love? Make it yours!

19. 2026-01-28
    listed $89,900 Active 704-char remark

    Show marketing remark (704 chars)

    This adorable Large 3-bedroom manufactured home awaits you in the desirable Friendly Village of Orangewood! Inside, you'll find spacious living areas with wood-look floors, vaulted ceilings for a feeling of openness, abundant natural light, and a soothing palette. Prepare delicious meals in the well-appointed kitchen, showcasing oak cabinetry, tiled counters, stainless steel appliances, and an island. The main suite promises a good night's sleep, offering a closet and a full ensuite for privacy. Enjoy your morning coffee under the cozy covered patio, and visit the community's pool, spa, golf, clubhouse, and other amenities for fun times! Plenty of storage space!What's not to love? Make it yours!

20. 2021-09-03
    soldstatus $79,900 Closed 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Lovely home located in 55+ Village of Orangewood. Corner lot in a quiet cul de sac with many community amenities. Gated, clubhouse, swimming pool, recreational facilities, golf course, and Boat/Rv Storage. This is one of two 3 bed 2 bath homes in this community. Large deck with wheel chair access, Newer shed, and newer AC unit. Newer interior laminate flooring, stainless steel appliances and a gas stove! A must see property!

21. 2021-08-02
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Lovely home located in 55+ Village of Orangewood. Corner lot in a quiet cul de sac with many community amenities. Gated, clubhouse, swimming pool, recreational facilities, golf course, and Boat/Rv Storage. This is one of two 3 bed 2 bath homes in this community. Large deck with wheel chair access, Newer shed, and newer AC unit. Newer interior laminate flooring, stainless steel appliances and a gas stove! A must see property!

22. 2021-07-22
    status Active 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Lovely home located in 55+ Village of Orangewood. Corner lot in a quiet cul de sac with many community amenities. Gated, clubhouse, swimming pool, recreational facilities, golf course, and Boat/Rv Storage. This is one of two 3 bed 2 bath homes in this community. Large deck with wheel chair access, Newer shed, and newer AC unit. Newer interior laminate flooring, stainless steel appliances and a gas stove! A must see property!

23. 2021-07-08
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Lovely home located in 55+ Village of Orangewood. Corner lot in a quiet cul de sac with many community amenities. Gated, clubhouse, swimming pool, recreational facilities, golf course, and Boat/Rv Storage. This is one of two 3 bed 2 bath homes in this community. Large deck with wheel chair access, Newer shed, and newer AC unit. Newer interior laminate flooring, stainless steel appliances and a gas stove! A must see property!

24. 2021-06-16
    listed $79,900 Active 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Lovely home located in 55+ Village of Orangewood. Corner lot in a quiet cul de sac with many community amenities. Gated, clubhouse, swimming pool, recreational facilities, golf course, and Boat/Rv Storage. This is one of two 3 bed 2 bath homes in this community. Large deck with wheel chair access, Newer shed, and newer AC unit. Newer interior laminate flooring, stainless steel appliances and a gas stove! A must see property!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,892
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,644
• − Property taxes: −$1,244
• − Insurance: −$414
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,991
• − Management: −$1,991
• − Depreciation: −$2,412
• Taxable income: $12,196
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,927
• After-tax cash flow: $9,863/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 3-bedroom manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Key updates include painting interior walls and replacing kitchen countertops.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — standard fixtures
• Minor HVAC units — standard units

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal
• Resale replace kitchen countertops — modernizes kitchen
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · standard fixtures	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC units · standard units	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale replace kitchen countertops — modernizes kitchen ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,487
• Household income: $76,605
• Rent vs Own: 43.5% rent · 56.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1533.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.58%
• Current HPI: 356.8851
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.75%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+6.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $84,900 ARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $89,900 ARMLS
• 2021-09-03 Sold (MLS) $79,900 ARMLS
• 2021-08-02 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-07-22 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2021-07-08 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2021-06-16 Listed $79,900 ARMLS