821 Colby Ave · Youngstown, OH 44505

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1911 6,011 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this solid 2-bedroom, 1-bath home full of charm and bursting with many possibilities! This property includes an additional parcel, giving you the space and freedom to dream big. Whether you're envisioning vibrant family gatherings, a backyard oasis, or future expansion, the canvas is all yours. Inside, you'll find a layout ready to be Freshened up into the home you've always wanted. With the right vision, this could be your forever family home or an excellent investment opportunity. At this amazing price point, it's the perfect property to customize without breaking the bank. Whether you're a first-time buyer, a seasoned investor, or someone with a creative spark, this home offers endless potential and flexibility. Plus, it features a full basement for added space and a one-car garage for convenient parking or extra storage. Don't miss your chance to turn potential into reality, schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• New lighting
• All new plumbing
• New electrical panel

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL
• ALL NEW PLUMBING
• NEW LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• NEW LIGHTING
• ALL NEW INTERIOR DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $215 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($905 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 7.0% in Youngstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#99 in OH, #1,506 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Youngstown City (urban): math 8% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #649 of 656 in OH (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $85k implies a 325% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1911 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1911 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.83%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $32,256
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
821 Colby Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,008 (0%)	9mo	$20,000	$20	92
1148 Miami Ave	0.43mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,017 (+1%)	11mo	$100,000	$98	62
922 Dean	0.22mi	2/1.0	1,088 (+8%)	23mo	$35,000	$32	57
1342 Berwick Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-14%)	17mo	$25,500	$30	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-139
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $17,325
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44505

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $905 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $227/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $633

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $263	-5% $239	+0% $215	+5% $191	+10% $167
Rent	-10% $143	-5% $179	+0% $215	+5% $250	+10% $286
Rate	-1.0pp $258	-0.5pp $236	base $215	+0.5pp $193	+1.0pp $170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
633 Cassius Ave Unit 1 Youngstown, OH	2.0	1.0	807	$750	$0.93	21d	1	1.04mi
3203 McGuffey Rd Youngstown, OH	2.0	1.0	705	$1,000	$1.42	14d	1	1.27mi
79 Lilburne Dr Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0	988	$1,000	$1.01	14d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-14
   listed $85,000 Active
2. 2025-09-11
   soldstatus $20,000 Closed 931-char remark

   Show marketing remark (931 chars)

   Welcome to this solid 2-bedroom, 1-bath home full of charm and bursting with many possibilities! This property includes an additional parcel, giving you the space and freedom to dream big. Whether you're envisioning vibrant family gatherings, a backyard oasis, or future expansion, the canvas is all yours. Inside, you'll find a layout ready to be Freshened up into the home you've always wanted. With the right vision, this could be your forever family home or an excellent investment opportunity. At this amazing price point, it's the perfect property to customize without breaking the bank. Whether you're a first-time buyer, a seasoned investor, or someone with a creative spark, this home offers endless potential and flexibility. Plus, it features a full basement for added space and a one-car garage for convenient parking or extra storage. Don't miss your chance to turn potential into reality, schedule your showing today!

3. 2025-07-31
   status Pending 931-char remark

   Show marketing remark (931 chars)

   Welcome to this solid 2-bedroom, 1-bath home full of charm and bursting with many possibilities! This property includes an additional parcel, giving you the space and freedom to dream big. Whether you're envisioning vibrant family gatherings, a backyard oasis, or future expansion, the canvas is all yours. Inside, you'll find a layout ready to be Freshened up into the home you've always wanted. With the right vision, this could be your forever family home or an excellent investment opportunity. At this amazing price point, it's the perfect property to customize without breaking the bank. Whether you're a first-time buyer, a seasoned investor, or someone with a creative spark, this home offers endless potential and flexibility. Plus, it features a full basement for added space and a one-car garage for convenient parking or extra storage. Don't miss your chance to turn potential into reality, schedule your showing today!

4. 2025-07-29
   price $25,000 931-char remark

   Show marketing remark (931 chars)

   Welcome to this solid 2-bedroom, 1-bath home full of charm and bursting with many possibilities! This property includes an additional parcel, giving you the space and freedom to dream big. Whether you're envisioning vibrant family gatherings, a backyard oasis, or future expansion, the canvas is all yours. Inside, you'll find a layout ready to be Freshened up into the home you've always wanted. With the right vision, this could be your forever family home or an excellent investment opportunity. At this amazing price point, it's the perfect property to customize without breaking the bank. Whether you're a first-time buyer, a seasoned investor, or someone with a creative spark, this home offers endless potential and flexibility. Plus, it features a full basement for added space and a one-car garage for convenient parking or extra storage. Don't miss your chance to turn potential into reality, schedule your showing today!

5. 2025-07-03
   listed $30,000 Active 931-char remark

   Show marketing remark (931 chars)

   Welcome to this solid 2-bedroom, 1-bath home full of charm and bursting with many possibilities! This property includes an additional parcel, giving you the space and freedom to dream big. Whether you're envisioning vibrant family gatherings, a backyard oasis, or future expansion, the canvas is all yours. Inside, you'll find a layout ready to be Freshened up into the home you've always wanted. With the right vision, this could be your forever family home or an excellent investment opportunity. At this amazing price point, it's the perfect property to customize without breaking the bank. Whether you're a first-time buyer, a seasoned investor, or someone with a creative spark, this home offers endless potential and flexibility. Plus, it features a full basement for added space and a one-car garage for convenient parking or extra storage. Don't miss your chance to turn potential into reality, schedule your showing today!

6. 2025-05-20
   historical
7. 2025-05-10
   historical Contingent
8. 2025-04-30
   price $22,500
9. 2025-04-07
   listed $30,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $227 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $776 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$550/yr (+$46/mo · 242.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥96°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,857
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$227
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$869
• − Management: −$869
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $1,234
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$296
• After-tax cash flow: $2,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Youngstown City
• NCES district ID: 3904516
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $25,257
• Composite: 9.29/100
• National rank: #9858
• State rank: #649 of 656 in OH

Livability — Youngstown

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #1506

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Youngstown, OH
• County: Mahoning · 224,175 people
• City population: 28,503
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren, OH
• Population (ZIP): 16,449
• Household income: $36,480
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.8

Population outlook (Mahoning County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,932 people
• By 2030: 218,387 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 205,367 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 193,606 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 173,694 · -22.4%
• By 2100: 151,147 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 37% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mahoning

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.9% · R 54.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.1pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+3.0 2012: D+27.7 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.64%
• Current HPI: 192.3375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+183.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $85,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-09-11 Sold (MLS) $20,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-07-31 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $25,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-07-03 Listed $30,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-05-20 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2025-05-10 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $22,500 MLSNOW
• 2025-04-07 Listed $30,000 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $227 · -11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.