2638 Afton Heights Way · Houston, TX 77051

$315,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,017 sqft · Land · 72 Days on market

Built 2025 3,105 sqft lot $156/sqft · at area comps Est $312k · at est. $113/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This thoughtfully designed two-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a loft, and a 2-car garage, combining modern style with everyday functionality. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an ideal space for entertaining and daily living. The kitchen features ample counter space, pantry storage, and a central island for added prep and gathering space. The first-floor primary suite includes a walk-in closet and private bath, offering a quiet retreat. Upstairs, enjoy a versatile loft space along with three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom, providing flexibility for guests, work, or play. Additional highlights include energy-efficient construction, modern finishes, and smart layout design. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, dining, and city amenities.

Key facts

• 3,105 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-303 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (13.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Reynolds El (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #4,301 of 4,322 statewide, top 100%, 334 students, 98% FRL); Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,516/mo this rent would consume 81% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $251,560 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.12%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,490
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: 0.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $156,953
• Equity at exit: $283,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.53×
• Total profit: $487,509
• Equity at exit: $611,976

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,516 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,725/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$113
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,899

Max offer price $271,218

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-85	-5% $-194	+0% $-303	+5% $-411	+10% $-520
Rent	-10% $-501	-5% $-402	+0% $-303	+5% $-203	+10% $-104
Rate	-1.0pp $-144	-0.5pp $-222	base $-303	+0.5pp $-384	+1.0pp $-467

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10514 Wellesley Terrace Trl Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1843	$2,300	$1.25	20d	1	0.12mi
10415 Lancaster Ln Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1937	$2,735	$1.41	22d	1	0.14mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,450	$1.35	24d	1	0.22mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Unit NA Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,400	$1.32	6d	1	0.22mi
9610 Buffum St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1605	$1,799	$1.12	45d	1	0.52mi
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	45d	1	0.79mi
3710 Rockingham St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1890	$1,700	$0.90	45d	1	1.03mi
12320 Chesney Downs Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$3,500	$1.75	4d	1	1.28mi
3002 Crown Gate Dr Unit 1568481P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2195	$3,345	$1.52	1d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $113 · $1,356/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $315,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $315,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $315,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $315,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-05-01
    price $325,000 840-char remark

    Show marketing remark (840 chars)

    This thoughtfully designed two-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a loft, and a 2-car garage, combining modern style with everyday functionality. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an ideal space for entertaining and daily living. The kitchen features ample counter space, pantry storage, and a central island for added prep and gathering space. The first-floor primary suite includes a walk-in closet and private bath, offering a quiet retreat. Upstairs, enjoy a versatile loft space along with three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom, providing flexibility for guests, work, or play. Additional highlights include energy-efficient construction, modern finishes, and smart layout design. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, dining, and city amenities.

14. 2026-04-10
    listed $335,000 Active 840-char remark

    Show marketing remark (840 chars)

    This thoughtfully designed two-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a loft, and a 2-car garage, combining modern style with everyday functionality. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an ideal space for entertaining and daily living. The kitchen features ample counter space, pantry storage, and a central island for added prep and gathering space. The first-floor primary suite includes a walk-in closet and private bath, offering a quiet retreat. Upstairs, enjoy a versatile loft space along with three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom, providing flexibility for guests, work, or play. Additional highlights include energy-efficient construction, modern finishes, and smart layout design. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, dining, and city amenities.

15. 2026-03-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$4,725
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,415
• − Management: −$2,415
• − HOA: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$9,107
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,186
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $335,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records