2415 Perry St · Highlands, TX 77521

$163,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 180 Days on market

Built 1948 5,601 sqft lot $160/sqft · at area comps Est $169k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming & Fully Remodeled home in a great location! This home is minutes from I-10 to go to Houston or into the main area of Baytown shops and restaurants! Open concept floor plan with flexible family room/dining room options. Brand new kitchen with elegant quartz counters, gas oven/range. The beautiful vinyl plank floors are new too! This home has a new ac, plantation shutters, and roof is only 6 years old, updated lighting, brand new bathrooms, and more! Check out the private driveway with its covered carport parking and nice sized back yard! Seller will be glad to paint any walls needing touch ups. Schedule your showing today1

Key facts

• Fully remodeled
• New kitchen
• Plantation shutters

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• NEW KITCHEN
• VINYL PLANK FLOORS
• NEW AC
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $438 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $163k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 5.2% in Highlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#738 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools D-.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 612 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 10767% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.51%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,460
• List price: $163,000
• Delta: -3.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2425 E Fayle St	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	920 (-10%)	24mo	$90,000	$98	52
1811 S Canal St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,016 (-0%)	20mo	$99,000	$97	49
2414 Camillia St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+13%)	7mo	$210,000	$182	40
7906 Spivey Rd	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,164 (+14%)	6mo	$169,900	$146	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,449
• Equity at exit: $24,304

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $23,022
• Equity at exit: $14,093

Cash invested: $45,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 612
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,947 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$855
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,134/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,393

Max offer price $163,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,750
• Closing costs: $4,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2515 Harris St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$2,000	$1.81	44d	1	0.35mi
508 Julie Ln Highlands, TX	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,750	$1.37	44d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $163,000 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $163,000 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $163,000 Active 174 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $163,000 Active 171 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $163,000 Active 170 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $163,000 Active 169 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $163,000 Active 168 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $163,000 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-04-29
   listed $1,500
10. 2025-12-15
    listed $163,000 Active 642-char remark

    Show marketing remark (642 chars)

    Charming & Fully Remodeled home in a great location! This home is minutes from I-10 to go to Houston or into the main area of Baytown shops and restaurants! Open concept floor plan with flexible family room/dining room options. Brand new kitchen with elegant quartz counters, gas oven/range. The beautiful vinyl plank floors are new too! This home has a new ac, plantation shutters, and roof is only 6 years old, updated lighting, brand new bathrooms, and more! Check out the private driveway with its covered carport parking and nice sized back yard! Seller will be glad to paint any walls needing touch ups. Schedule your showing today1

11. 2025-12-15
    historical

    Show marketing remark (642 chars)

    Charming & Fully Remodeled home in a great location! This home is minutes from I-10 to go to Houston or into the main area of Baytown shops and restaurants! Open concept floor plan with flexible family room/dining room options. Brand new kitchen with elegant quartz counters, gas oven/range. The beautiful vinyl plank floors are new too! This home has a new ac, plantation shutters, and roof is only 6 years old, updated lighting, brand new bathrooms, and more! Check out the private driveway with its covered carport parking and nice sized back yard! Seller will be glad to paint any walls needing touch ups. Schedule your showing today1

12. 2025-11-13
    price $164,900
13. 2025-09-03
    listed $169,000 Active
14. 2024-02-01
    soldstatus
15. 2024-01-31
    soldstatus Sold
16. 2024-01-26
    status Pending
17. 2024-01-23
    status Option Pending
18. 2024-01-22
    status Pending
19. 2024-01-17
    status Option Pending
20. 2024-01-05
    listed $165,000 Active
21. 2023-11-15
    soldstatus
22. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,134 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,983 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: +$849/yr (+$71/mo · 39.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,367
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,131
• − Property taxes: −$2,134
• − Insurance: −$815
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,869
• − Management: −$1,869
• − Depreciation: −$4,742
• Taxable income: $2,807
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$674
• After-tax cash flow: $4,580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Highlands

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #13697

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 9,805
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed for Rent $1,500 HARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $163,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $164,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Listed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-01-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-01-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-01-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-01-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-01-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-01-05 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,134 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.