Newlin Plan · Fredericksburg, TX 78624

$280,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · SingleFamily · 638 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 638 days

🏗️ New construction. The $280,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $295,853.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $281k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-156 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.7% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#182 in TX, #4,711 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Fredericksburg ISD (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #241 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fredericksburg El (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 744 students, 67% FRL); Fredericksburg Middle (math 51% / reading 46%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 684 students, 58% FRL); Fredericksburg H S (math 33% / reading 57%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,003 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 979 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 52 units permitted in Gillespie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gillespie County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 638 days — a 12% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 8% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $239,031 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 638 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.26%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,853
• List price: $280,999
• Delta: -5.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
171 Juanita Way	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	1mo	$273,999	$186	89
187 Juanita Way	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	2mo	$287,999	$195	88
125 Alameda Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	7mo	$295,999	$201	86
108 Ciarans Crossing Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-14%)	0mo	$299,000	$237	70
196 Juanita Way	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,634 (+11%)	6mo	$301,999	$185	69
241 Juanita Way	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,634 (+11%)	1mo	$311,999	$191	68
195 Juanita Way	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	1mo	$284,999	$171	62
100 Ellendale Pl	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	2mo	$280,000	$168	62
127 Alameda Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-14%)	7mo	$241,999	$192	62
133 Alameda Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-14%)	7mo	$280,999	$223	61
207 Juanita Way	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	4mo	$289,999	$174	58
612 Bluebonnet St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,641 (+11%)	4mo	$355,000	$216	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-57,855
• Equity at exit: $44,113

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-63,045
• Equity at exit: $25,580

Cash invested: $82,839 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78624

• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,390 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$370 /mo · $4,438/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,588

Max offer price $273,246

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $-54	+0% $-156	+5% $-258	+10% $-361
Rent	-10% $-345	-5% $-251	+0% $-156	+5% $-62	+10% $33
Rate	-1.0pp $-7	-0.5pp $-81	base $-156	+0.5pp $-233	+1.0pp $-311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,963
• Closing costs: $8,876
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
130 Ciarans Xing Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,300	$1.56	4d	1	0.19mi
510 S Olive St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$2,950	$2.21	45d	1	0.55mi
1019 Friendship Ln Fredericksburg, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	912	$1,750	$1.92	0d	11	0.57mi
915 E Highway St Unit NA Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,950	$1.39	6d	1	0.59mi
501 S Olive St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.5	1400	$2,500	$1.79	45d	1	0.60mi
1006 E Highway St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,250	$1.42	45d	1	0.66mi
1004 E Hill St Unit B Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,895	$1.32	25d	1	0.83mi
1004 W Hill St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,895	$1.32	25d	1	0.86mi
104 N Elk St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.0	1620	$2,000	$1.23	13d	1	1.11mi
202 E Ufer St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,355	$2.37	0d	11	1.16mi
405 Summit Cir Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,100	$1.37	45d	1	1.28mi
247 Sunday Cir Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,600	$1.90	0d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $280,999 Active 638 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,999 Active 635 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,999 Active 634 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,999 Active 633 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,999 Active 632 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,999 Active 630 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,999 Active 626 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,999 Active 625 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $280,999 Active 624 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $280,999 Active 621 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,999 Active 620 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,999 Active 619 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,999 Active 618 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,999 Active 617 DOM
15. 2026-03-30
    price $284,999 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

16. 2025-11-28
    price $291,999 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

17. 2025-07-03
    price $289,999 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

18. 2025-06-30
    price $294,999 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

19. 2025-02-08
    status Active 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

20. 2025-02-07
    historical 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

21. 2024-09-21
    status Active 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

22. 2024-09-21
    price $302,999 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

23. 2024-03-15
    historical 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

24. 2024-03-14
    listed $259,999 Active 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,572
• − Property taxes: −$4,438
• − Insurance: −$1,479
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,295
• − Management: −$2,295
• − Depreciation: −$8,607
• Taxable loss: −$7,002
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,680
• After-tax cash flow: $-194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and is well-maintained with a good exterior. The property has potential for value-add improvements such as painting the exterior and updating the kitchen countertops.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops can improve the kitchen's appearance and functionality.
• Rental Install smart home devices — Smart home features can attract tech-savvy renters and add value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops can improve the kitchen's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Rental Install smart home devices — Smart home features can attract tech-savvy renters and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fredericksburg ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819840
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,655
• Composite: 39.9/100
• National rank: #3857
• State rank: #241 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #4711

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fredericksburg, TX
• County: Gillespie County · 23,741 people
• City population: 23,741
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,741
• Household income: $75,237
• Rent vs Own: 26.3% rent · 73.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 470.0

Population outlook (Gillespie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,213 people
• By 2030: 29,243 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 31,133 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 32,854 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 37,597 · +33.3%
• By 2100: 39,369 · +39.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gillespie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: -56.6pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+58.9 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+56.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -209.14%
• Current HPI: 218.7201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+9.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $284,999 Zillow
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $291,999 Zillow
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $289,999 Zillow
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $294,999 Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-02-07 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-09-21 Price Changed $302,999 Zillow
• 2024-09-21 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-03-15 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-03-14 Listed $259,999 Zillow