555 W Warner Rd #134 · Chandler, AZ 85225

$40,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 43 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1965 Good condition $33/sqft · 46% below area Est $74k · 46% under ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.6

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home tucked away toward the back of a quiet, well-maintained community. Inside, you'll find spacious living areas, large walk-in closets, newer flooring, and tasteful updates throughout the kitchen and bathrooms. The functional layout also features a full-size laundry room and plenty of storage space. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or seasonal retreat, this home offers comfort, privacy, and the opportunity to make it your own with any finishing touches you desire.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $926 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.1% vs local median 3.3% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#9 in AZ, #2,508 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, cost of living D-.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Knox Gifted Academy (math 90% / reading 97%, grade A+, #1 of 1,109 statewide, top 0%, 672 students, 6% FRL); Willis Junior High School (math 28% / reading 36%, grade F, #73 of 218 statewide, top 35%, 865 students, 55% FRL); Chandler High School (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #133 of 381 statewide, top 35%, 3,597 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 79d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 99.21%
• DSCR: 5.41
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,602
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -45.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
555 W Warner Rd #55	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,104 (-9%)	7mo	$74,955	$68	79
1425 N Evergreen St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-6%)	8mo	$295,000	$258	69
555 W Warner Rd #156	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-13%)	4mo	$70,000	$66	66
825 W Calle Del Norte --	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,173 (-4%)	20mo	$349,000	$298	59
555 W Warner Rd #65	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,088 (-10%)	22mo	$112,000	$103	56
200 E Knox Rd #104	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-1%)	8mo	$72,250	$60	52
200 E Knox Rd #63	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+10%)	12mo	$69,350	$52	33
200 E Knox Rd #18	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-13%)	16mo	$52,900	$50	27
200 E Knox Rd #60	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-13%)	22mo	$68,900	$65	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 96.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.29×
• Total profit: $48,054
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 98.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.99×
• Total profit: $100,637
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $112,000 ($98/sqft)
• Median days on market: 76 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -38.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85225

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 361
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,522 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $926

Break-even live

Break-even rent $350

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $954	-5% $940	+0% $926	+5% $912	+10% $898
Rent	-10% $806	-5% $866	+0% $926	+5% $986	+10% $1,046
Rate	-1.0pp $946	-0.5pp $936	base $926	+0.5pp $916	+1.0pp $905

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1807 N Cheri Lynn Dr Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,999	$1.39	77d	1	0.11mi
562 W Highland St Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,965	$1.36	6d	1	0.15mi
1970 N Iowa St Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,135	$1.71	41d	1	0.16mi
1505 N Evergreen St Unit 119 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1344	$1,579	$1.17	118d	1	0.20mi
1998 N Iowa St Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,950	$1.56	2d	1	0.20mi
1970 N Hartford St #4 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.5	849	$1,650	$1.94	184d	1	0.20mi
1970 N Hartford St #62 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1136	$1,650	$1.45	165d	1	0.20mi
1970 N Hartford St #53 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.5	1136	$1,895	$1.67	19d	1	0.20mi
1970 N Hartford St #4 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.5	849	$1,650	$1.94	165d	1	0.20mi
1970 N Hartford St #99 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.5	1098	$1,850	$1.68	152d	1	0.20mi
1970 N Hartford St #90 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.5	1098	$1,750	$1.59	10d	1	0.20mi
1970 N Hartford St #25 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.5	1098	$1,695	$1.54	85d	1	0.20mi
1970 N Hartford St #99 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.5	1098	$1,825	$1.66	130d	1	0.20mi
1970 N Hartford St #79 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.5	849	$1,800	$2.12	75d	1	0.20mi
1970 N Hartford St #79 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.5	849	$1,800	$2.12	63d	1	0.20mi
1961 N Hartford St #1049 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.5	1120	$1,595	$1.42	87d	1	0.29mi
1961 N Hartford St #1078 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.5	1120	$1,595	$1.42	126d	1	0.32mi
458 W Highland St Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,995	$1.38	37d	1	0.33mi
1413 N Jay St Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,500	$1.76	10d	1	0.36mi
222 W Caroline Ln Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,995	$1.61	72d	1	0.37mi
822 W Knox Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,295	$1.52	123d	1	0.38mi
1351 N Pleasant Dr #2092 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1300	$3,450	$2.65	119d	1	0.45mi
1505 N Alma School Rd Ste 2 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	50d	1	0.50mi
1600 N Arizona Ave Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1233	$1,855	$1.50	23d	1	0.50mi
1600 N Arizona Ave Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1271	$1,870	$1.47	79d	1	0.50mi
1600 N Arizona Ave Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1233	$1,919	$1.56	49d	1	0.50mi
1600 N Arizona Ave Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1233	$1,875	$1.52	99d	1	0.50mi
1351 N Pleasant Dr Chandler, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1300	$3,450	$2.65	9d	2	0.56mi
1351 N Pleasant Dr Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1299	$2,622	$2.02	165d	2	0.56mi
1351 N Pleasant Dr Chandler, AZ	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1112	$3,450	$3.10	0d	4	0.56mi
1351 N Pleasant Dr Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1112	$2,525	$2.27	108d	2	0.56mi
1351 N Pleasant Dr Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.5–2.0	1121	$2,535	$2.26	135d	2	0.56mi
98 W Orchid Ln Unit 98-03 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,025	$1.28	184d	1	0.67mi
1287 N Alma School Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$1,895	$2.16	109d	5	0.71mi
1287 N Alma School Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$1,895	$2.16	72d	5	0.71mi
1287 N Alma School Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	968	$1,895	$1.96	128d	3	0.71mi
1287 N Alma School Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	968	$1,895	$1.96	157d	2	0.71mi
648 W Ray Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	950	$1,499	$1.58	0d	3	0.77mi
699 W Ray Rd #5 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$999	$1.21	79d	1	0.81mi
300 E Warner Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1030	$2,069	$2.01	0d	17	0.81mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located at the back of the communityLot size source: assessor
• HOA & community: Land lease community with a monthly land lease of $795Association fee includes grounds maintenance and other itemsCommunity amenities: pool and playground

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: City waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Leasehold manufactured/mobile home
• Construction: Wood siding and wood frame constructionComposition roofBuilding area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Screened-in patio(s)Gravel/stone front and backPrivate maintained roadAsphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorDishwasherDisposalBuilt-in microwaveKitchen island
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: LaminateVinylOther
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and electric heatingCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatWindow/wall air conditioning units
• Interior features: High-speed internetBreakfast barKitchen islandFull bathroom in primary bedroomDual-pane, ENERGY STAR qualified, tinted windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup onlyGas dryer hookup

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-07-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-07-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-07-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-07-11
   days on market $40,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-07-10
   days on market $40,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-07-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-07-07
   days on market $40,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-07-06
   pricedays on market $40,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-07-06
   days on market $45,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-07-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-07-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-07-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-07-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-29
    days on market $45,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-06-28
    days on market $45,000 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-06-27
    days on market $45,000 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-06-26
    days on market $45,000 Active 25 DOM
19. 2026-06-24
    days on market $45,000 Active 23 DOM
20. 2026-06-22
    days on market $45,000 Active 21 DOM
21. 2026-06-21
    days on market $45,000 Active 20 DOM
22. 2026-06-18
    days on market $45,000 Active 17 DOM
23. 2026-06-17
    days on market $45,000 Active 16 DOM
24. 2026-06-16
    days on market $45,000 Active 15 DOM
25. 2026-06-15
    days on market $45,000 Active 14 DOM
26. 2026-06-13
    days on market $45,000 Active 12 DOM
27. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $45,000 Active 11 DOM
28. 2026-06-09
    days on market $55,000 Active 8 DOM
29. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 7 DOM
30. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $55,000 Active 6 DOM
31. 2026-06-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 3 DOM
32. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 2 DOM
33. 2026-06-02
    remarks 533-char remark
34. 2026-06-02
    listed $65,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,461
• − Management: −$1,461
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $11,137
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,673
• After-tax cash flow: $8,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,080–$18,240 screening

This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is in good condition with newer updates and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minor cosmetic upgrades that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both upgrading light fixtures — modern lighting improves ambiance and energy efficiency ↑
• Both installing smart home devices — enhances convenience and energy savings ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Knox Gifted Academy A+ AZ #1/1,109 Nat'l #64/41,679 Middle Willis Junior High School F AZ #73/218 Nat'l #8,317/14,009 High Chandler High School F AZ #133/381 Nat'l #11,681/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Chandler

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2508

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute B Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chandler, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 299,016
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 72,297
• Household income: $88,676
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Black 7% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Vietnamese 1% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.25%
• Current HPI: 328.8354
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located at the back of the communityLot size source: assessor
• HOA & community: Land lease community with a monthly land lease of $795Association fee includes grounds maintenance and other itemsCommunity amenities: pool and playground

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: City waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Leasehold manufactured/mobile home
• Construction: Wood siding and wood frame constructionComposition roofBuilding area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Screened-in patio(s)Gravel/stone front and backPrivate maintained roadAsphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorDishwasherDisposalBuilt-in microwaveKitchen island
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: LaminateVinylOther
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and electric heatingCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatWindow/wall air conditioning units
• Interior features: High-speed internetBreakfast barKitchen islandFull bathroom in primary bedroomDual-pane, ENERGY STAR qualified, tinted windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup onlyGas dryer hookup

Price history

-30.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $45,000 ARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $55,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $65,000 ARMLS