555 W Warner Rd #134 · Chandler, AZ 85225

$45,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 17 Days on market

Built 1965 Good condition Est $83k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home tucked away toward the back of a quiet, well-maintained community. Inside, you'll find spacious living areas, large walk-in closets, newer flooring, and tasteful updates throughout the kitchen and bathrooms. The functional layout also features a full-size laundry room and plenty of storage space. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or seasonal retreat, this home offers comfort, privacy, and the opportunity to make it your own with any finishing touches you desire.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1965

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease of $795 monthly; Association covers grounds maintenance and other community items; Community pool; Playground

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Wood siding; Wood frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Screened-in patio(s); Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone backyard; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Window/wall air conditioning units
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Full bath in master bedroom; Dual pane windows; ENERGY STAR qualified windows; Tinted windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup only; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 39.3% vs local median 3.3% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#9 in AZ, #2,508 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, cost of living D-.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Knox Gifted Academy (math 90% / reading 97%, grade A+, #1 of 1,109 statewide, top 0%, 672 students, 6% FRL); Willis Junior High School (math 28% / reading 36%, grade F, #73 of 218 statewide, top 35%, 865 students, 55% FRL); Chandler High School (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #133 of 381 statewide, top 35%, 3,597 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 182 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,325 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 117.75%
• DSCR: 6.24
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $82,688
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
555 W Warner Rd #55	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,104 (-9%)	3mo	$74,955	$68	82
1425 N Evergreen St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-6%)	3mo	$295,000	$258	72
825 W Calle Del Norte --	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,173 (-4%)	16mo	$349,000	$298	63
555 W Warner Rd #65	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,088 (-10%)	17mo	$112,000	$103	60
200 E Knox Rd #104	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-1%)	4mo	$72,250	$60	56
555 W Warner Rd #4	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,065 (-12%)	20mo	$130,000	$122	54
200 E Knox Rd #63	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+10%)	7mo	$69,350	$52	37
200 E Knox Rd #18	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-13%)	12mo	$52,900	$50	31
200 E Knox Rd #60	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-13%)	18mo	$68,900	$65	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $65,740
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.84×
• Total profit: $136,576
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85225

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,959 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $1,236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1970 N Hartford St #62 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1136	$1,650	$1.45	24d	1	0.20mi
1970 N Hartford St #4 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.5	849	$1,650	$1.94	24d	1	0.20mi
1970 N Hartford St #99 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.5	1098	$1,850	$1.68	5d	1	0.20mi
1970 N Hartford St #99 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.5	1098	$1,850	$1.68	11d	1	0.20mi
1970 N Hartford St #4 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.5	849	$1,650	$1.94	43d	1	0.20mi
822 W Knox Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,375	$1.62	4d	1	0.38mi
1351 N Pleasant Dr #2092 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1300	$3,450	$2.65	43d	1	0.48mi
1351 N Pleasant Dr Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1299	$2,622	$2.02	24d	2	0.56mi
1351 N Pleasant Dr Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.5–2.0	1121	$2,535	$2.26	10d	3	0.56mi
98 W Orchid Ln Unit 98-03 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,025	$1.28	43d	1	0.67mi
1287 N Alma School Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	968	$1,895	$1.96	16d	2	0.71mi
699 W Ray Rd #5 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$1,149	$1.39	10d	1	0.81mi
300 E Warner Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1030	$1,936	$1.88	2d	28	0.81mi
123 E Corporate Pl Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1285	$3,649	$2.84	5d	91	0.83mi
433 W Ray Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	770	$1,000	$1.30	43d	1	0.83mi
859 W Ray Rd Apt 3 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	832	$1,050	$1.26	3d	1	0.90mi
859 W Ray Rd Apt 3 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	832	$1,225	$1.47	5d	1	0.90mi
859 W Ray Rd Apt 2 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	832	$1,125	$1.35	17d	1	0.90mi
859 W Ray Rd Apt 2 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	832	$1,125	$1.35	21d	1	0.90mi
510 E Kent Ave Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,190	$1.54	2d	1	1.01mi
250 E Ray Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,080	$1.80	5d	1	1.03mi
250 E Ray Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1073	$3,948	$3.68	19d	11	1.03mi
250 E Ray Rd Unit 2 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,684	$1.48	43d	1	1.05mi
1370 W Gary Dr Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1468	$2,375	$1.62	21d	1	1.10mi
760 N Evergreen St Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1219	$2,100	$1.72	12d	1	1.12mi
235 E Ray Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1031	$1,904	$1.85	1d	9	1.19mi
886 W Galveston St #131 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	24d	1	1.30mi
815 E Calle del Norte Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,100	$1.68	5d	1	1.31mi
1817 N Dobson Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1004	$2,105	$2.10	2d	8	1.37mi
1600 N Saba St #163 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.5	870	$1,550	$1.78	11d	1	1.39mi
1600 N Saba St #115 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.5	870	$1,368	$1.57	24d	1	1.39mi
501 E Ray Rd Lot 181 Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,099	$1.56	43d	1	1.41mi
1320 N McQueen Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	851	$1,387	$1.63	24d	1	1.41mi
1320 N McQueen Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	883	$1,427	$1.62	5d	1	1.41mi
785 N Arrowhead Dr Apt 2 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0	981	$1,499	$1.53	24d	1	1.42mi
3033 N Arizona Ave Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0–3.0	944	$2,590	$2.74	1d	230	1.42mi
868 E Savannah Dr Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1259	$2,850	$2.26	1d	1	1.43mi
1825 W Ray Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	881	$1,850	$2.10	5d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $45,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $55,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 533-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $65,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,503
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,880
• − Management: −$1,880
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $15,013
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,603
• After-tax cash flow: $11,233/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is in good condition with newer updates and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minor cosmetic upgrades that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both upgrading light fixtures — modern lighting improves ambiance and energy efficiency
• Both installing smart home devices — enhances convenience and energy savings

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both upgrading light fixtures — modern lighting improves ambiance and energy efficiency ↑
• Both installing smart home devices — enhances convenience and energy savings ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Chandler

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2508

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute B Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chandler, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 299,016
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 72,297
• Household income: $88,676
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2327.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Black 7% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Vietnamese 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.25%
• Current HPI: 328.8354
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $65,000 ARMLS