4195 Orlando Ave · Spring Hill, FL 34604

$249,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,832 sqft · Land · 157 Days on market

Built 2026 8,100 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW 4 bedrooms + 2 bathrooms on nice lot. .. with fenced backyard (beautiful new privacy wood fence)! Open Floor Plan - LARGE HOME with 1,832 sq feet of living space!! Everything is BRAND NEW. .. NEW WELL, NEW SEPTIC, NEW HOME with NEW roof, NEW AC, NEW Stainless Steel Appliances, NEW cabinets, NEW countertops, NEW flooring, NEW front deck, NEW back deck, NEW landscaping, NEW wood fencing!! Everything is NEW! Comes is a 7 year transferrable warranty to the buyer! Everything is brand new. .. all you have to do is move-in and decorate!! Zoned for the highly-desired Nature Coast High School. Cash, conventional, FHA, and VA accepted. Call to come see it today!!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• New well
• New septic

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• PRIVACY WOOD FENCE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEW WELL
• NEW SEPTIC
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking; Ground level parking; Oversized spaces; Boat parking; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured double wide; Residential property; Completed condition; One level; Faces south; New construction
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Cleared lot; Trees/landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Walk-in closet(s); Family room; Formal dining room; Formal living room; Inside utility
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($494/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.4% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Moton Elementary School (math 46% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 679 students, 79% FRL); Nature Coast Technical High (math 52% / reading 51%, grade D+, #167 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 1,298 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $250k implies a 1150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.71%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-40,925
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-44,441
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34604

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,238 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,186

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
286 Cherry Birch LN Masaryktown, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,884	$1.95	1d	44	0.81mi
14499 Tamarind Loop Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,200	$1.30	12d	1	1.08mi
14501 Silversmith Cir Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$2,000	$1.28	24d	1	1.15mi
3454 Suncoast Villa Way Spring Hill, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1275	$1,995	$1.56	3d	44	1.40mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $249,900 Pending 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $249,900 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-04-01
    price $249,900 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    BRAND NEW 4 bedrooms + 2 bathrooms on nice lot. .. with fenced backyard (beautiful new privacy wood fence)! Open Floor Plan - LARGE HOME with 1,832 sq feet of living space!! Everything is BRAND NEW. .. NEW WELL, NEW SEPTIC, NEW HOME with NEW roof, NEW AC, NEW Stainless Steel Appliances, NEW cabinets, NEW countertops, NEW flooring, NEW front deck, NEW back deck, NEW landscaping, NEW wood fencing!! Everything is NEW! Comes is a 7 year transferrable warranty to the buyer! Everything is brand new. .. all you have to do is move-in and decorate!! Zoned for the highly-desired Nature Coast High School. Cash, conventional, FHA, and VA accepted. Call to come see it today!!

15. 2026-04-01
    price $249,900

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    BRAND NEW 4 bedrooms + 2 bathrooms on nice lot. .. with fenced backyard (beautiful new privacy wood fence)! Open Floor Plan - LARGE HOME with 1,832 sq feet of living space!! Everything is BRAND NEW. .. NEW WELL, NEW SEPTIC, NEW HOME with NEW roof, NEW AC, NEW Stainless Steel Appliances, NEW cabinets, NEW countertops, NEW flooring, NEW front deck, NEW back deck, NEW landscaping, NEW wood fencing!! Everything is NEW! Comes is a 7 year transferrable warranty to the buyer! Everything is brand new. .. all you have to do is move-in and decorate!! Zoned for the highly-desired Nature Coast High School. Cash, conventional, FHA, and VA accepted. Call to come see it today!!

16. 2026-03-17
    price $259,000 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    BRAND NEW 4 bedrooms + 2 bathrooms on nice lot. .. with fenced backyard (beautiful new privacy wood fence)! Open Floor Plan - LARGE HOME with 1,832 sq feet of living space!! Everything is BRAND NEW. .. NEW WELL, NEW SEPTIC, NEW HOME with NEW roof, NEW AC, NEW Stainless Steel Appliances, NEW cabinets, NEW countertops, NEW flooring, NEW front deck, NEW back deck, NEW landscaping, NEW wood fencing!! Everything is NEW! Comes is a 7 year transferrable warranty to the buyer! Everything is brand new. .. all you have to do is move-in and decorate!! Zoned for the highly-desired Nature Coast High School. Cash, conventional, FHA, and VA accepted. Call to come see it today!!

17. 2026-03-17
    price $259,000

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    BRAND NEW 4 bedrooms + 2 bathrooms on nice lot. .. with fenced backyard (beautiful new privacy wood fence)! Open Floor Plan - LARGE HOME with 1,832 sq feet of living space!! Everything is BRAND NEW. .. NEW WELL, NEW SEPTIC, NEW HOME with NEW roof, NEW AC, NEW Stainless Steel Appliances, NEW cabinets, NEW countertops, NEW flooring, NEW front deck, NEW back deck, NEW landscaping, NEW wood fencing!! Everything is NEW! Comes is a 7 year transferrable warranty to the buyer! Everything is brand new. .. all you have to do is move-in and decorate!! Zoned for the highly-desired Nature Coast High School. Cash, conventional, FHA, and VA accepted. Call to come see it today!!

18. 2026-01-13
    listed $269,000 Active 671-char remark

    Show marketing remark (671 chars)

    BRAND NEW 4 bedrooms + 2 bathrooms on nice lot. .. with fenced backyard (beautiful new privacy wood fence)! Open Floor Plan - LARGE HOME with 1,832 sq feet of living space!! Everything is BRAND NEW. .. NEW WELL, NEW SEPTIC, NEW HOME with NEW roof, NEW AC, NEW Stainless Steel Appliances, NEW cabinets, NEW countertops, NEW flooring, NEW front deck, NEW back deck, NEW landscaping, NEW wood fencing!! Everything is NEW! Comes is a 7 year transferrable warranty to the buyer! Everything is brand new. .. all you have to do is move-in and decorate!! Zoned for the highly-desired Nature Coast High School. Cash, conventional, FHA, and VA accepted. Call to come see it today!!

19. 2026-01-10
    listed $269,000 Active
20. 2025-06-19
    soldstatus $20,000
21. 2022-11-09
    soldstatus $25,000
22. 2019-10-31
    soldstatus $6,000
23. 2004-08-05
    soldstatus $3,500 69-char remark

    Show marketing remark (69 chars)

    SINGLE WIDE MOBILE HOME LOT. NO WELL, NO SEPTIC, NO IMPACT FEES PAID.

24. 2003-12-03
    listed $3,500 69-char remark

    Show marketing remark (69 chars)

    SINGLE WIDE MOBILE HOME LOT. NO WELL, NO SEPTIC, NO IMPACT FEES PAID.

25. 2001-12-28
    soldstatus $1
26. 2000-10-10
    listed $3,000
27. 1997-10-28
    soldstatus $5,100
28. 1990-05-01
    soldstatus $8,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,859
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,149
• − Management: −$2,149
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$3,705
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$889
• After-tax cash flow: $1,384/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #15937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Hill, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 83,915
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,642
• Household income: $84,833
• Rent vs Own: 8.5% rent · 91.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 142.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.38%
• Current HPI: 276.4751
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2840.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $249,900 HCAR
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $259,000 HCAR
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $259,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Listed $269,000 HCAR
• 2026-01-10 Listed $269,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-05 Sold (MLS) $3,500 HCAR
• 2003-12-03 Listed $3,500 HCAR
• 2001-12-28 Sold (MLS) $1 HCAR
• 2000-10-10 Listed $3,000 HCAR
• 1997-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $5,100 Public Records
• 1990-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $398 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.