42402 N LA Plata Rd · Scottsdale, AZ 85331

$749,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,852 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1976 1.67 ac lot $263/sqft · 42% below area Est $1288k · 42% under $25/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to sell! Rare opportunity to live in the highly desired Tonto Hills community with endless views. Transform this original into the home of your dreams where you will enjoy privacy and spectacular views of the golf course and desert, while just mintues away from all the shopping, dining, and resort lifestyle Cave Creek and Carefree have to offer.

Key facts

• 1.67 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1976

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $749k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $860 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $668k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $668k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 394 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,676/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 169% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($727k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $151k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $278k; list at $749k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $667,617 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.92%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,287,823
• List price: $749,000
• Delta: -41.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11447 E Quail Ln	0.38mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,845 (-0%)	2mo	$1,250,000	$439	75
42434 N Tonto Rd	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,105 (+9%)	8mo	$1,475,000	$475	67
11522 E Manana Rd	0.48mi	3/3.0	2,711 (-5%)	9mo	$1,205,000	$444	62
11602 E Manana Rd	0.43mi	3/4.0	2,587 (-9%)	3mo	$860,000	$332	58
11519 E Blue Wash Rd	0.53mi	3/2.5	2,655 (-7%)	7mo	$1,205,000	$454	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-66,956
• Equity at exit: $111,678

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $10,743
• Equity at exit: $64,760

Cash invested: $209,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85331

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Active inventory: 394
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,676 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,928
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,790/yr
• Insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,402
• Net cashflow: $860

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,587

Max offer price $749,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,284	-5% $1,072	+0% $860	+5% $648	+10% $436
Rent	-10% $333	-5% $596	+0% $860	+5% $1,124	+10% $1,388
Rate	-1.0pp $1,237	-0.5pp $1,051	base $860	+0.5pp $666	+1.0pp $469

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $187,250
• Closing costs: $22,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11426 E Kendra Ln Cave Creek, AZ	2.0	2.5	3540	$10,000	$2.82	14d	1	0.55mi
43003 N Old Mine Rd Cave Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	2400	$3,250	$1.35	11d	1	0.73mi
10726 E Tamarisk Way Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.0	2922	$10,500	$3.59	14d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $749,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $749,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $749,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $749,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $749,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $749,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $749,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $749,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   price $749,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $849,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $849,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $849,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $849,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $849,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $849,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    status Active 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Priced to sell! Rare opportunity to live in the highly desired Tonto Hills community with endless views. Transform this original into the home of your dreams where you will enjoy privacy and spectacular views of the golf course and desert, while just mintues away from all the shopping, dining, and resort lifestyle Cave Creek and Carefree have to offer.

17. 2026-05-04
    status Pending 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Priced to sell! Rare opportunity to live in the highly desired Tonto Hills community with endless views. Transform this original into the home of your dreams where you will enjoy privacy and spectacular views of the golf course and desert, while just mintues away from all the shopping, dining, and resort lifestyle Cave Creek and Carefree have to offer.

18. 2026-05-02
    price $849,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Priced to sell! Rare opportunity to live in the highly desired Tonto Hills community with endless views. Transform this original into the home of your dreams where you will enjoy privacy and spectacular views of the golf course and desert, while just mintues away from all the shopping, dining, and resort lifestyle Cave Creek and Carefree have to offer.

19. 2026-05-02
    price $799,900 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Priced to sell! Rare opportunity to live in the highly desired Tonto Hills community with endless views. Transform this original into the home of your dreams where you will enjoy privacy and spectacular views of the golf course and desert, while just mintues away from all the shopping, dining, and resort lifestyle Cave Creek and Carefree have to offer.

20. 2026-04-11
    listed $899,900 Active 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Priced to sell! Rare opportunity to live in the highly desired Tonto Hills community with endless views. Transform this original into the home of your dreams where you will enjoy privacy and spectacular views of the golf course and desert, while just mintues away from all the shopping, dining, and resort lifestyle Cave Creek and Carefree have to offer.

21. 2026-04-09
    historical
22. 2026-03-27
    listed $899,900 Active
23. 2000-11-21
    soldstatus $277,950
24. 2000-11-21
    soldstatus $277,950
25. 2000-10-23
    historical
26. 1999-12-10
    listed $272,000
27. 1994-10-11
    soldstatus $180,000
28. 1992-11-30
    soldstatus $128,000
29. 1992-06-30
    soldstatus $150,000
30. 1990-08-28
    soldstatus $135,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,790 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,943 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,154/yr (+$263/mo · 176.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $80,114
• − Mortgage interest: −$41,956
• − Property taxes: −$1,790
• − Insurance: −$3,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,409
• − Management: −$6,409
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$21,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,283
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$548
• After-tax cash flow: $10,870/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,968
• Household income: $129,083
• Rent vs Own: 7.4% rent · 92.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 169.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.66%
• Current HPI: 316.6855
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+528.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $849,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $799,900 ARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $899,900 ARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $899,900 ARMLS
• 2000-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $277,950 Public Records
• 2000-11-21 Sold (MLS) $277,950 ARMLS
• 2000-10-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 1999-12-10 Listed $272,000 ARMLS
• 1994-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 1992-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records
• 1992-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 1990-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,790 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.