3236 Grainger Station Rd · Graingers, NC 28501

$121,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1969 0.59 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity at 3236 Grainger Station in Kinston! This well-maintained 3BR/1BA brick ranch offers a compact, efficient layout under 1,200 sq ft and is positioned for strong rental performance. With proven rental history, investor-friendly pricing, and durable brick construction, this property presents a compelling option for immediate cash flow, long-term hold potential, or portfolio expansion. Move-in/rent-ready condition helps reduce upfront costs and streamline tenant placement. Classic ranch design, low-maintenance exterior, and strong income potential make this a smart addition for real estate professionals and savvy investors seeking value in the Kinston market

Key facts

• 0.59 acre lot
• Built 1969
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Entry level is 1
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; No patio or porch; No fencing; Has a view; Road frontage on city street and state road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range (stove)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Hardwood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Range (stove); Vinyl and hardwood flooring; Crawl space basement; Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $121k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (0.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lenoir County Public Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #147 of 178 in NC (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Contentnea-Savannah School (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #959 of 1,410 statewide, top 68%, 859 students, 100% FRL); North Lenoir High (math 52% / reading 36%, grade F, #367 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 975 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 65% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 148 units permitted in Lenoir County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $837 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lenoir County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,622 (0.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.24%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-6,627
• Equity at exit: $18,041

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $10,845
• Equity at exit: $10,462

Cash invested: $33,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28501

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,206 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$635
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $763/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $948

Max offer price $121,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $273	-5% $239	+0% $204	+5% $170	+10% $136
Rent	-10% $109	-5% $157	+0% $204	+5% $252	+10% $300
Rate	-1.0pp $265	-0.5pp $235	base $204	+0.5pp $173	+1.0pp $141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,250
• Closing costs: $3,630
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $121,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $121,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $121,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $121,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $121,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $121,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $121,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   remarks 683-char remark
9. 2026-06-12
   listed $121,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $763 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $992 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$229/yr (+$19/mo · 30.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,778
• − Property taxes: −$763
• − Insurance: −$605
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,158
• − Management: −$1,158
• − Depreciation: −$3,520
• Taxable income: $493
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$118
• After-tax cash flow: $2,334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lenoir County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702610
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $34,958
• Composite: 25.17/100
• National rank: #7515
• State rank: #147 of 178 in NC

Livability — Graingers

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Graingers, NC
• Population (ZIP): 18,112

Population outlook (Lenoir County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,002 people
• By 2030: 53,048 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 49,041 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 45,136 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 36,547 · -33.6%
• By 2100: 27,731 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 26% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenoir

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.8) · D 46.2% · R 53.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -6.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.8 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+6.3 2012: R+1.5 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.17%
• Current HPI: 193.3213
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $121,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $763 · +79.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.