120 Redwood Rd Unit A & B · Middlesborough, KY 40965

$125,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Townhouse · 88 Days on market

Built 2000 Fair condition 0.30 ac lot ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity with this one. Built in 2000 per appraisal, this property offers a total of 1,664 square feet and is currently occupied by reliable, long-term tenants. Each unit features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, providing comfortable living space for residents. The address, listed as 102 A&B Redwood Road, originates from a previous appraisal. The property is confirmed per the appraisal as NOT in the flood zone, adding peace of mind for investors. This is a versatile opportunity—ideal for investors seeking steady rental income or for owner-occupants who wish to live in one unit while renting the other to offset expenses. Additionally, the neighboring properties at 103 and 105 Nutwood Road are also available for purchase for separate price. These homes are currently used as rental properties, with one already occupied, offering further investment potential. Showings are available upon request. Please do not disturb the tenants.

Key facts

• Not in flood zone
• Steady rental income
• Built 2000

Tags

• NOT IN FLOOD ZONE
• STEADY RENTAL INCOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.2% in Middlesborough — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#456 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Middlesboro Independent (town): math 14% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #153 of 165 in KY (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.09%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $24,838
• Equity at exit: $60,483

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $75,566
• Equity at exit: $96,684

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40965

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $133	+0% $90	+5% $47	+10% $4
Rent	-10% $-5	-5% $42	+0% $90	+5% $138	+10% $186
Rate	-1.0pp $153	-0.5pp $122	base $90	+0.5pp $58	+1.0pp $25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    price $125,000 964-char remark

    Show marketing remark (964 chars)

    Great investment opportunity with this one. Built in 2000 per appraisal, this property offers a total of 1,664 square feet and is currently occupied by reliable, long-term tenants. Each unit features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, providing comfortable living space for residents. The address, listed as 102 A&B Redwood Road, originates from a previous appraisal. The property is confirmed per the appraisal as NOT in the flood zone, adding peace of mind for investors. This is a versatile opportunity—ideal for investors seeking steady rental income or for owner-occupants who wish to live in one unit while renting the other to offset expenses. Additionally, the neighboring properties at 103 and 105 Nutwood Road are also available for purchase for separate price. These homes are currently used as rental properties, with one already occupied, offering further investment potential. Showings are available upon request. Please do not disturb the tenants.

18. 2026-03-23
    listed $175,000 Active 964-char remark

    Show marketing remark (964 chars)

    Great investment opportunity with this one. Built in 2000 per appraisal, this property offers a total of 1,664 square feet and is currently occupied by reliable, long-term tenants. Each unit features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, providing comfortable living space for residents. The address, listed as 102 A&B Redwood Road, originates from a previous appraisal. The property is confirmed per the appraisal as NOT in the flood zone, adding peace of mind for investors. This is a versatile opportunity—ideal for investors seeking steady rental income or for owner-occupants who wish to live in one unit while renting the other to offset expenses. Additionally, the neighboring properties at 103 and 105 Nutwood Road are also available for purchase for separate price. These homes are currently used as rental properties, with one already occupied, offering further investment potential. Showings are available upon request. Please do not disturb the tenants.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,159
• − Management: −$1,159
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$966
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$232
• After-tax cash flow: $1,313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This townhouse requires moderate repairs to the exterior siding and landscaping, but presents a good investment opportunity with steady rental income.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered and needs repainting
• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown grass and weeds

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered and needs repainting	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Landscaping · Overgrown grass and weeds	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$3,500–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middlesboro Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104170
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $23,442
• Composite: 18.61/100
• National rank: #8900
• State rank: #153 of 165 in KY

Livability — Middlesborough

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #456
• US rank: #22662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middlesborough, KY
• City population: 11,698
• Population (ZIP): 11,698

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,501 people
• By 2030: 22,923 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 19,860 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 17,161 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 12,070 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 8,525 · -65.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.7) · D 15.2% · R 83.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -68.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.7 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+51.7 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.60%
• Current HPI: 134.9069
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-28.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $125,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $175,000 ImagineMLS