16 Franklin Ln Unit B · Crestwood Village, NJ 08759

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,558 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 1977 Fair condition Est $198k · 39% under $443/mo HOA · 21% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

If you're looking for privacy and tranquility, this is it!!! Location is Paramount! Largest model located in the active community of Crestwood Village four offers an abundance of privacy, replacement windows, central AC, and a bonus three season room. Large and spacious rooms throughout offering so much space and storage, a good size laundry room equipped with a utility sink, front sun drenched sunroom, and direct entry garage. With some elbow, grease and personal touches she will shine like a diamond again. Come see her today and take advantage of this incredible opportunity. Co-op, cash sale only taxes are included in the HOA fees. Make your appointment today.

Key facts

• Central ac
• Utility sink
• Replacement windows

Tags

• REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• CENTRAL AC
• BONUS THREE SEASON ROOM
• GOOD SIZE LAUNDRY ROOM
• UTILITY SINK
• FRONT SUN DRENCHED SUNROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Association amenities include community room, clubhouse with bocci, and common access; Association fee covers common area, lawn maintenance, and snow removal; Association name: Crestwood VLg 4

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Cooperative ownership; Model: LEXINGTON-3 SEASONS; Property is attached
• Construction: Garage (first level)
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Level topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (all on the first level)
• Flooring: Linoleum; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Outdoor lighting; Window treatments and blinds/shades; Ceiling fan(s); Light fixtures; Screens; Awnings
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Dedicated laundry room (first level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 5.6% in Crestwood Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#422 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.31%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,866
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26A Franklin Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,596 (+2%)	5mo	$205,000	$128	87
107 Hudson Pkwy Unit B	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,558 (0%)	6mo	$215,000	$138	83
55 Franklin Ln	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,492 (-4%)	7mo	$167,000	$112	79
2A Jackson Ct	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,550 (-0%)	10mo	$196,500	$127	77
14 A Yorktowne Pkwy	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,545 (-1%)	4mo	$210,000	$136	74
196 Constitution Blvd	0.10mi	2/1.0	1,398 (-10%)	2mo	$168,000	$120	73
1-B Pilgrim Ct	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,565 (+0%)	3mo	$163,000	$104	71
1 Adams Ct	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,350 (-13%)	6mo	$178,000	$132	68
15 Monmouth Ln Unit B	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,565 (+0%)	6mo	$129,900	$83	64
11 Woodview Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,613 (+4%)	5mo	$485,000	$301	59
18 Monmouth Ln Unit A	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	8mo	$133,500	$93	53
27 Moccasin Dr	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,398 (-10%)	8mo	$147,000	$105	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $3,963
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $34,551
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,153 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$443
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,695

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $445	-5% $404	+0% $362	+5% $321	+10% $279
Rent	-10% $192	-5% $277	+0% $362	+5% $447	+10% $532
Rate	-1.0pp $423	-0.5pp $393	base $362	+0.5pp $331	+1.0pp $299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
49 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1192	$1,995	$1.67	44d	1	0.32mi
50 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,200	$1.96	2d	1	0.32mi
— Lakehurst, NJ	2.0	2.0	1568	$2,300	$1.47	2d	1	0.65mi
16B Ivy Ct Unit A Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,400	$1.55	2d	1	1.01mi
19B Maplewood Dr #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1109	$2,250	$2.03	17d	1	1.08mi
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,400	$1.55	2d	1	1.19mi
9B Portsmouth St Unit 54B Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1544	$2,350	$1.52	21d	1	1.19mi
1 Morning Glory Ln Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.5	1312	$1,200	$0.91	4d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $443 · $5,316/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on marketlisting id $120,000 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-21
    listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,067
• − Management: −$2,067
• − HOA: −$5,316
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,976
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$714
• After-tax cash flow: $3,631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathrooms, which will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — outdated and in poor condition
• Major kitchen countertops — outdated and in poor condition
• Major bathroom fixtures — outdated and in poor condition
• Major bathroom tile — outdated and in poor condition

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen will attract more buyers
• Resale update bathroom fixtures and tile — modernizing the bathroom will attract more buyers
• Both paint interior walls — painting the interior walls will improve the overall appearance and value
• Both replace carpeted floors — replacing the carpeted floors with hardwood or tile will improve the overall appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen countertops · outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom tile · outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen will attract more buyers ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures and tile — modernizing the bathroom will attract more buyers ↑
• Both paint interior walls — painting the interior walls will improve the overall appearance and value ↑
• Both replace carpeted floors — replacing the carpeted floors with hardwood or tile will improve the overall appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Crestwood Village

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #15006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crestwood Village, NJ
• City population: 34,290
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $120,000 MOMLS