3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #268 · Phoenix, AZ 85050

$100,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 46 Days on market

Built 1989 Fair condition $69/sqft · 34% below area Est $152k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Paradise Peak West is a vibrant 55+ community located at the heart of the Arizona lifestyle. BACK YARD CAN BE ENCLOSED W PPW APPROVAL. This property is sold As-Is, will need flooring including base flooring and interior updates. FEATURES: Raised-panel cabinets, recent exterior paint, a New HVAC system (approximately two years old), and a $9,000 side patio conversion to a spacious Arizona room. The Arizona room features skylights, windows, and an integrated second storage area, fully equipped with electric, and a separate rear patio area designed for a BBQ and television setup. This unit backs up to a wash/common area. Closest comparables are 140k plus without the Arizona Room Addition and Newer HVAC and Roof Shingles.

Key facts

• 3 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1989

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.8% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 220 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.33%
• DSCR: 4.26
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,120
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -34.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #240	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (0%)	3mo	$152,500	$105	93
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #109	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-4%)	1mo	$130,000	$93	90
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #4	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (0%)	4mo	$179,000	$123	89
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #275	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,560 (+7%)	1mo	$160,000	$103	87
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #65	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,534 (+5%)	7mo	$207,000	$135	85
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #339	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,550 (+6%)	4mo	$170,000	$110	84
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #294	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,560 (+7%)	4mo	$142,000	$91	82
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #134	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	1mo	$145,000	$93	79
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #323	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-11%)	4mo	$159,000	$123	75
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #236	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,664 (+14%)	1mo	$180,000	$108	72
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #250	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-14%)	3mo	$152,000	$122	71
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #108	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-14%)	1mo	$132,000	$106	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.20×
• Total profit: $89,722
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 75.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.36×
• Total profit: $206,211
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85050

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,040 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$639
• Net cashflow: $1,711

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,780	-5% $1,745	+0% $1,711	+5% $1,676	+10% $1,642
Rent	-10% $1,471	-5% $1,591	+0% $1,711	+5% $1,831	+10% $1,951
Rate	-1.0pp $1,761	-0.5pp $1,736	base $1,711	+0.5pp $1,685	+1.0pp $1,659

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5–3.0	1490	$4,750	$3.19	45d	2	0.70mi
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1405	$2,600	$1.85	19d	3	0.70mi
3935 E Rough Rider Rd #1338 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1276	$2,700	$2.12	0d	1	0.79mi
4066 E Melinda Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1269	$3,500	$2.76	45d	1	1.02mi
4517 E Melinda Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1663	$3,100	$1.86	15d	1	1.35mi
4509 E Lone Cactus Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1663	$4,500	$2.71	45d	1	1.36mi
21624 N 46th Pl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1540	$3,200	$2.08	6d	1	1.41mi
4632 E Mossman Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1519	$3,800	$2.50	45d	1	1.41mi
3626 E Potter Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,500	$1.65	25d	1	1.44mi
20729 N 37th Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1670	$3,000	$1.80	16d	1	1.46mi
4726 E Mossman Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1610	$2,500	$1.55	9d	1	1.46mi
4723 E Weaver Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1663	$2,595	$1.56	15d	1	1.48mi
20660 N 40th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1325	$1,749	$1.32	19d	4	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $100,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $100,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $100,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $100,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-04-22
   listed $100,000 Active 731-char remark

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   Paradise Peak West is a vibrant 55+ community located at the heart of the Arizona lifestyle. BACK YARD CAN BE ENCLOSED W PPW APPROVAL. This property is sold As-Is, will need flooring including base flooring and interior updates. FEATURES: Raised-panel cabinets, recent exterior paint, a New HVAC system (approximately two years old), and a $9,000 side patio conversion to a spacious Arizona room. The Arizona room features skylights, windows, and an integrated second storage area, fully equipped with electric, and a separate rear patio area designed for a BBQ and television setup. This unit backs up to a wash/common area. Closest comparables are 140k plus without the Arizona Room Addition and Newer HVAC and Roof Shingles.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,486
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,919
• − Management: −$2,919
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $20,138
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,833
• After-tax cash flow: $15,698/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, paint interior walls, and replace carpeting. The Arizona room addition is a significant feature that adds value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen countertops — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom tile — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate exterior siding — moderate wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen
• Resale update bathroom fixtures and tile — modernizing the bathroom
• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace carpeting — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen countertops · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom tile · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · moderate wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$15,000–75,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures and tile — modernizing the bathroom ↑
• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpeting — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 33,118
• Household income: $139,836
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.38%
• Current HPI: 308.7483
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $100,000 ARMLS