3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #268 · Phoenix, AZ 85050

$100,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 46 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 1989 Fair condition $69/sqft · 35% below area Est $153k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.6

Listing remarks

Paradise Peak West is a vibrant 55+ community located at the heart of the Arizona lifestyle. BACK YARD CAN BE ENCLOSED W PPW APPROVAL. This property is sold As-Is, will need flooring including base flooring and interior updates. FEATURES: Raised-panel cabinets, recent exterior paint, a New HVAC system (approximately two years old), and a $9,000 side patio conversion to a spacious Arizona room. The Arizona room features skylights, windows, and an integrated second storage area, fully equipped with electric, and a separate rear patio area designed for a BBQ and television setup. This unit backs up to a wash/common area.

Key facts

• 3 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1989

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wildfire Elementary School (math 59% / reading 64%, grade B, #132 of 1,109 statewide, top 12%, 457 students, 7% FRL); Explorer Middle School (math 57% / reading 53%, grade B-, #11 of 218 statewide, top 6%, 678 students, 6% FRL); Pinnacle High School (math 49% / reading 54%, grade D+, #35 of 381 statewide, top 9%, 2,479 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools average 7% FRL vs 29% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.32%
• DSCR: 2.93
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,889
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -34.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #83	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,456 (0%)	0mo	$115,000	$79	97
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #240	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (0%)	4mo	$152,500	$105	92
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #109	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-4%)	2mo	$130,000	$93	88
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #4	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (0%)	5mo	$179,000	$123	87
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #275	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,560 (+7%)	2mo	$160,000	$103	86
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #76	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (-7%)	0mo	$125,000	$92	83
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #339	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,550 (+6%)	6mo	$170,000	$110	82
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #294	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,560 (+7%)	6mo	$142,000	$91	80
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #134	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	2mo	$145,000	$93	78
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #236	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,664 (+14%)	3mo	$180,000	$108	71
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #250	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-14%)	4mo	$152,000	$122	70
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #108	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-14%)	3mo	$132,000	$106	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $46,024
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.08×
• Total profit: $114,315
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 12 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.0 mo (25%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $147,500 ($102/sqft)
• Median days on market: 105 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +2.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85050

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,154 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $1,011

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,080	-5% $1,045	+0% $1,011	+5% $976	+10% $942
Rent	-10% $841	-5% $926	+0% $1,011	+5% $1,096	+10% $1,181
Rate	-1.0pp $1,061	-0.5pp $1,036	base $1,011	+0.5pp $985	+1.0pp $959

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1388	$2,725	$1.96	46d	1	0.70mi
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1539	$2,838	$1.84	0d	2	0.70mi
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1378	$2,900	$2.10	8d	1	0.70mi
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1405	$2,600	$1.85	67d	3	0.70mi
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5–3.0	1490	$4,750	$3.19	93d	2	0.70mi
21862 N 40th Pl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1449	$2,200	$1.52	42d	1	0.90mi
21808 N 40th Pl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1269	$2,255	$1.78	0d	1	0.94mi
4066 E Melinda Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1269	$3,500	$2.76	93d	1	1.02mi
21827 N 40th Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1449	$2,600	$1.79	47d	1	1.03mi
21838 N 41st St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1505	$2,495	$1.66	25d	1	1.04mi
3660 E Zachary Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1444	$2,700	$1.87	40d	1	1.23mi
21130 N 36th Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1501	$2,600	$1.73	2d	1	1.29mi
4517 E Melinda Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1663	$3,100	$1.86	63d	1	1.35mi
4509 E Lone Cactus Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1663	$4,500	$2.71	93d	1	1.36mi
21624 N 46th Pl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,900	$1.88	16d	1	1.41mi
4632 E Mossman Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1519	$3,800	$2.50	93d	1	1.41mi
4704 E Weaver Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1662	$3,500	$2.11	2d	1	1.43mi
3626 E Potter Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,500	$1.65	73d	1	1.44mi
20750 N 38th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1407	$2,295	$1.63	47d	1	1.44mi
20729 N 37th Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1670	$3,000	$1.80	64d	1	1.46mi
4726 E Mossman Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1610	$2,500	$1.55	57d	1	1.46mi
4723 E Weaver Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1663	$2,595	$1.56	63d	1	1.48mi
20660 N 40th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1325	$1,749	$1.32	67d	4	1.49mi
20660 N 40th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1325	$2,500	$1.89	38d	4	1.49mi
4709 E Abraham Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1322	$2,495	$1.89	31d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Conventional financing available
• HOA & community: Monthly land leaseLand lease payment: $945 monthlyAssociation covers street maintenance, trash, and waterCommunity pool

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces2 carport spaces1 open parking space
• Utilities: City waterSewer: Other
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile homeLeasehold property
• Construction: Wood frame constructionPainted exteriorComposition roofBuilding area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front and backNo fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorDishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bedroom with full bath
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $100,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $100,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $100,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $100,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-04-22
   listed $100,000 Active 731-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,068
• − Management: −$2,068
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $11,206
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,689
• After-tax cash flow: $9,441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $36,400–$65,520 screening

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, paint interior walls, and replace carpeting. The Arizona room addition is a significant feature that adds value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen countertops — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom tile — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate exterior siding — moderate wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures and tile — modernizing the bathroom ↑
• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpeting — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wildfire Elementary School B AZ #132/1,109 Nat'l #6,818/41,679 Middle Explorer Middle School B- AZ #11/218 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Pinnacle High School D+ AZ #35/381 Nat'l #5,269/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 33,118
• Household income: $139,836
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.38%
• Current HPI: 308.7483
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Conventional financing available
• HOA & community: Monthly land leaseLand lease payment: $945 monthlyAssociation covers street maintenance, trash, and waterCommunity pool

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces2 carport spaces1 open parking space
• Utilities: City waterSewer: Other
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile homeLeasehold property
• Construction: Wood frame constructionPainted exteriorComposition roofBuilding area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front and backNo fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorDishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bedroom with full bath
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $100,000 ARMLS