410 Spruce St · Aguilar, CO 81020

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 261 Days on market

Built 1914 0.42 ac lot Est $108k · 39% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer Upper with Great Potential! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is ready for your vision. Featuring an open floor plan with a spacious living room, dining area, and kitchen, there's plenty of room to create your dream space. The unfinished basement offers ample storage, and the detached 2-stall garage provides additional opportunity for updates. Sitting on 3 city lots, there's room to expand, add a shop, or enjoy a large yard. With the right touch, this property could shine again—perfect for investors or handy buyers looking for a project! * * Ai was used to remove unwanted furnishings from the photos * *

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Unfinished basement
• 3 city lots

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• DETACHED 2-STALL GARAGE
• 3 CITY LOTS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential property; Frame construction
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No cooling system listed
• Interior features: Master bedroom on the main level; Wood-framed windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level; Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($171/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#405 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Aguilar Reorganized School District No. 6 (rural): math 0% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #170 of 176 in CO (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in Las Animas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Las Animas County population projected at -40% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,068 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.41%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $108,000
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
418 N Elm St	0.15mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,400 (-3%)	16mo	$245,000	$175	68
330 East St	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,464 (+2%)	19mo	$109,000	$74	67
200 Baca	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,464 (+2%)	17mo	$110,000	$75	65
522 Pinon St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	22mo	$202,000	$134	64
207 Pinon St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,625 (+13%)	16mo	$40,000	$25	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $18,902
• Equity at exit: $67,446

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $65,938
• Equity at exit: $103,943

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81020

• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,141 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $453/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,123

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 261 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 260 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 259 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 258 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 257 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 255 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 254 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 251 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 250 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 249 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 248 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 245 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 244 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 243 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 242 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 241 DOM
17. 2025-10-01
    listed $150,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Fixer Upper with Great Potential! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is ready for your vision. Featuring an open floor plan with a spacious living room, dining area, and kitchen, there's plenty of room to create your dream space. The unfinished basement offers ample storage, and the detached 2-stall garage provides additional opportunity for updates. Sitting on 3 city lots, there's room to expand, add a shop, or enjoy a large yard. With the right touch, this property could shine again—perfect for investors or handy buyers looking for a project! * * Ai was used to remove unwanted furnishings from the photos * *

18. 2025-10-01
    listed $150,000 Active 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Fixer Upper with Great Potential! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is ready for your vision. Featuring an open floor plan with a spacious living room, dining area, and kitchen, there's plenty of room to create your dream space. The unfinished basement offers ample storage, and the detached 2-stall garage provides additional opportunity for updates. Sitting on 3 city lots, there's room to expand, add a shop, or enjoy a large yard. With the right touch, this property could shine again—perfect for investors or handy buyers looking for a project! * * Ai was used to remove unwanted furnishings from the photos * *

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $453 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $825 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$372/yr (+$31/mo · 82.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$453
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,095
• − Management: −$1,095
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$593
• After-tax cash flow: $764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aguilar Reorganized School District No. 6
• NCES district ID: 0802010
• Math proficiency: 0% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $43,179
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #14557
• State rank: #170 of 176 in CO

Livability — Aguilar

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #405
• US rank: #25647

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aguilar, CO
• Population (ZIP): 807

Population outlook (Las Animas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,072 people
• By 2030: 10,972 · -9.1%
• By 2040: 8,825 · -26.9%
• By 2050: 7,245 · -40.0%
• By 2075: 5,139 · -57.4%
• By 2100: 3,922 · -67.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Las Animas

• 2024 margin: R (+13.5) · D 42.0% · R 55.5% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 7.0pp · 2024: -13.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.5 2020: R+9.9 2016: R+15.6 2012: D+2.7 2008: D+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-01 Listed $150,000 PARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $150,000 SPMLS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $453 · +98.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.