Plan 2385 Plan · North Weeki Wachee, FL 34613

$279,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,385 sqft · SingleFamily · 187 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Large loft * Low-E windows * Dedicated laundry room * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Open floor plan * Powder bath * Den * Front porch * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Walk-in kitchen pantry * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Tot lot * Dog park * Commuter-friendly location * Near the ocean * Outdoor recreation nearby * Master-planned community

Key facts

• Low-e windows
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 187 days

Tags

• LOW-E WINDOWS
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• WALK-IN KITCHEN PANTRY
• ENERGY STAR CERTIFIED HOME
• COMMUTER-FRIENDLY LOCATION
• OUTDOOR RECREATION NEARBY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $279,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan home; Located at Weeki Wachee, FL (zip 34613)
• Exterior features: Living area of 2385 (indicator of home's size)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan 2385 (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $383,985.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-655 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#534 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Winding Waters K-8 (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 1,622 students, 56% FRL); Weeki Wachee High School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #284 of 667 statewide, top 43%, 1,435 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 695 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,530/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 307% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $246,391 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.31%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $383,985
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10540 Tucker Rd	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,260 (-5%)	1mo	$321,000	$142	78
10471 Tucker Rd	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,260 (-5%)	3mo	$319,990	$142	77
10460 Tucker Rd	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,260 (-5%)	6mo	$312,990	$138	76
10507 Tucker Rd	0.17mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,260 (-5%)	3mo	$310,000	$137	76
10447 Tucker Rd	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,260 (-5%)	6mo	$315,990	$140	75
10492 Tucker Rd	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,260 (-5%)	8mo	$328,990	$146	73
11000 Maybird Ave	0.42mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,536 (+6%)	9mo	$495,000	$195	56
11079 Millerdale Rd	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,435 (+2%)	8mo	$418,100	$172	54
11009 Maybird Ave	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,238 (-6%)	15mo	$360,000	$161	50
10342 Mirage Ave	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,120 (-11%)	3mo	$374,900	$177	39
11102 Warm Wind Way	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,559 (+7%)	24mo	$585,000	$229	28
11108 Warm Wind Way	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,693 (+13%)	19mo	$565,000	$210	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-103,892
• Equity at exit: $57,253

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-144,018
• Equity at exit: $33,200

Cash invested: $107,516 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34613

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,530 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,014
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$480 /mo · $5,760/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $-655

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,359

Max offer price $289,226

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-389	-5% $-522	+0% $-655	+5% $-788	+10% $-920
Rent	-10% $-855	-5% $-755	+0% $-655	+5% $-555	+10% $-455
Rate	-1.0pp $-461	-0.5pp $-557	base $-655	+0.5pp $-754	+1.0pp $-856

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,996
• Closing costs: $11,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10507 Tucker Rd Weeki Wachee, FL	4.0	2.5	2650	$2,650	$1.00	26d	1	0.14mi
9408 New Orleans Dr Weeki Wachee, FL	2.0	2.0	1650	$1,995	$1.21	26d	1	1.16mi
9376 Southern Belle Dr Weeki Wachee, FL	3.0	2.0	2028	$2,300	$1.13	3d	1	1.41mi
9376 Southern Belle Dr Weeki Wachee, FL	3.0	2.0	2028	$2,300	$1.13	6d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,990 Active 187 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,990 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,990 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,990 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,990 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,990 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,990 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,990 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,990 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,990 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,990 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 169 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 168 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 167 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 166 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,361
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,509
• − Property taxes: −$5,760
• − Insurance: −$1,920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,429
• − Management: −$2,429
• − Depreciation: −$11,170
• Taxable loss: −$14,856
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,565
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,293/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Weeki Wachee

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10019

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Weeki Wachee, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,337
• Household income: $58,596
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.51%
• Current HPI: 276.2229
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B