1521 W Gore Rd · Millcreek, PA 16509

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1927 9,875 sqft lot Est $195k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 9,875 sq ft lot
• Built 1927
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: R-1 zoning

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half stories; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Carpet flooring; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($614/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Millcreek Township SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #105 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chestnut Hill El Sch (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #377 of 1,518 statewide, top 28%, 365 students, 49% FRL); James S Wilson Ms (math 31% / reading 61%, grade D+, #180 of 512 statewide, top 36%, 550 students, 51% FRL); Mcdowell Hs (math 76% / reading 50%, grade B-, #72 of 437 statewide, top 16%, 2,205 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 29% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $160k implies a 196% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $133,145 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.37%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,544
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5009 Hillsdale Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0	960 (-5%)	2mo	$250,900	$261	81
4905 Conway St	0.21mi	3/1.0	960 (-5%)	7mo	$159,900	$167	76
1827 W 53 St	0.46mi	3/1.0	960 (-5%)	1mo	$210,000	$219	69
1701 W Gore Rd	0.23mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+5%)	11mo	$180,000	$170	67
1690 Bryant St	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	928 (-8%)	9mo	$140,000	$151	66
1530 W 43rd St	0.46mi	3/2.0	984 (-2%)	7mo	$176,500	$179	65
1363 W 44th St	0.42mi	3/1.5	960 (-5%)	10mo	$186,000	$194	62
1335 W 42 St	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-5%)	4mo	$150,000	$156	58
4004 Washington Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,078 (+7%)	3mo	$249,900	$232	52
3915 Greengarden Blvd	0.68mi	3/1.0	960 (-5%)	12mo	$186,000	$194	50
4270 Harding Dr	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,092 (+8%)	2mo	$160,000	$147	49
125 Clayton Ave	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+11%)	2mo	$216,000	$193	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-22,712
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-15,761
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16509

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,331 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,139/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,267

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $96	+0% $51	+5% $6	+10% $-39
Rent	-10% $-54	-5% $-1	+0% $51	+5% $104	+10% $156
Rate	-1.0pp $132	-0.5pp $92	base $51	+0.5pp $10	+1.0pp $-32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1540 W 54th St Unit 156104 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	952	$1,425	$1.50	45d	1	0.35mi
1717 Kuntz Rd Erie, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	687	$1,025	$1.49	45d	12	0.96mi
3603 Maple St Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,000	$0.83	45d	1	1.32mi
1022 W 30th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	45d	1	1.38mi
811 W 30th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,175	$1.31	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $160,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,139 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,834 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$694/yr (+$58/mo · 60.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,139
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,278
• − Management: −$1,278
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,135
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$513
• After-tax cash flow: $1,127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millcreek Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4215330
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,734
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2224
• State rank: #105 of 539 in PA

Livability — Millcreek

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 28,595
• Household income: $68,846
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 870.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Slovak 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.54%
• Current HPI: 240.361
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+196.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $160,000 GEBOR
• 1998-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,139 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.