203 W Kemp Ave · Artesia, NM 88210

$74,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,843 sqft · SingleFamily · 75 Days on market

Built 1979 $40/sqft · 12% below area Est $85k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

203 W Kemp Ave and West of 203 Kemp Ave available in this sale. This Two story, 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers approximately 1,843 square feet of living on a 7000 sq foot lot. This space features a convenient walkway leading to a rear 21' x 12' storage. Ideally located within walking distance of a local grocery store (Greggs) and gas station (Allsups), the property is also just about one mile from FLETC with easy access to US Highway 285. This property presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch—being sold as is.

Key facts

• Convenient walkway
• Rear storage
• Built 1979

Tags

• CONVENIENT WALKWAY
• REAR STORAGE
• WALKING DISTANCE GROCERY STORE
• WALKING DISTANCE GAS STATION
• EASY ACCESS US HIGHWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $74k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $74k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#75 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Artesia Public Schools (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #17 of 95 in NM (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $514 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,936 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 96.86%
• DSCR: 5.31
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $84,955
• List price: $74,400
• Delta: -12.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 97.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.56×
• Total profit: $95,028
• Equity at exit: $11,093

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.59×
• Total profit: $220,615
• Equity at exit: $6,433

Cash invested: $20,832 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88210

• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,681 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$390
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $183/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $1,681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $552

Max offer price $74,400

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,724	-5% $1,702	+0% $1,681	+5% $1,660	+10% $1,639
Rent	-10% $1,470	-5% $1,576	+0% $1,681	+5% $1,787	+10% $1,893
Rate	-1.0pp $1,719	-0.5pp $1,700	base $1,681	+0.5pp $1,662	+1.0pp $1,643

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,600
• Closing costs: $2,232
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $74,400 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,400 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,400 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,400 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,400 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $74,400 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,400 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,400 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,400 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $74,400 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,400 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,400 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,400 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,400 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,400 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $74,400 Active 55 DOM
17. 2026-04-01
    listed $74,400 Active 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    203 W Kemp Ave and West of 203 Kemp Ave available in this sale. This Two story, 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers approximately 1,843 square feet of living on a 7000 sq foot lot. This space features a convenient walkway leading to a rear 21' x 12' storage. Ideally located within walking distance of a local grocery store (Greggs) and gas station (Allsups), the property is also just about one mile from FLETC with easy access to US Highway 285. This property presents a great opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch—being sold as is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $183 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $595 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$413/yr (+$34/mo · 225.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,168
• − Property taxes: −$183
• − Insurance: −$372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,574
• − Management: −$2,574
• − Depreciation: −$2,164
• Taxable income: $20,136
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,833
• After-tax cash flow: $15,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Artesia Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500120
• Math proficiency: 29% —
• Reading proficiency: 42% —
• Median HH income: $51,397
• Composite: 33.48/100
• National rank: #10522
• State rank: #17 of 95 in NM

Livability — Artesia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #15300

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Artesia, NM
• County: Eddy County · 58,370 people
• City population: 18,542
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• Population (ZIP): 18,542
• Household income: $79,632
• Rent vs Own: 28.7% rent · 71.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 159.0

Population outlook (Eddy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,505 people
• By 2030: 69,797 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 79,191 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 89,199 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 115,829 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 129,336 · +97.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 40% Two or more races 19% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Eddy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.9) · D 21.4% · R 77.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -55.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.9 2020: R+51.8 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -238.85%
• Current HPI: 115.6107
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $74,400 Fizber.com

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $183 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.