906 Youth Water Rd · Conroe, TX 77316

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,737 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 368 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 6,629 sqft lot $158/sqft · 7% below area Est $318k · 13% under $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your new 1,857sf one-story, 4-bedroom, DR Horton home! Located in Fairwater on FM 2854 near Hwy 105 in Montgomery, Texas, and filled with many great upgrades, including a tankless hot water heater, sprinkler system, purified drinking water tap at the kitchen sink, smart doorbell, and combo front and back door locks. The open concept floorplan is perfect for entertaining and seamless family living. Your family chef will love the gourmet kitchen with a large granite island, gas range, and huge walk-in pantry. Gather with your family in the bright, open family room with large windows overlooking the backyard. Relax and unwind after a long day in the luxurious owner's suite complete with an en-suite bath featuring dual sinks, a glass shower, a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. An oversized covered patio gives you space for a comfortable outdoor lounge space you can enjoy while the kiddos and pets play.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Large granite island
• Sprinkler system

Tags

• TANKLESS HOT WATER HEATER
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• PURIFIED DRINKING WATER TAP
• SMART DOORBELL
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• LARGE GRANITE ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-517 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (33.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 368 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,719 (33.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 368 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.05%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,772
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -13.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20104 Crystal Falls Ct	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,906 (+10%)	1mo	$299,900	$157	72
1313 Mainland Shores Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,810 (+4%)	2mo	$275,000	$152	70
20103 Crystal Falls Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (-6%)	8mo	$289,900	$178	68
1407 Crystal Falls Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (-7%)	14mo	$309,000	$192	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-83,103
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -69.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.77×
• Total profit: $-136,623
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,333 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$728 /mo · $8,735/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,987

Max offer price $183,719

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-361	-5% $-439	+0% $-517	+5% $-595	+10% $-672
Rent	-10% $-701	-5% $-609	+0% $-517	+5% $-425	+10% $-332
Rate	-1.0pp $-378	-0.5pp $-447	base $-517	+0.5pp $-588	+1.0pp $-660

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1751 Fennel Flower Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$2,246	$1.25	2d	59	0.26mi
18544 Meadow Point Ln Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,950	$1.33	44d	1	1.23mi
18490 Sunrise Pines Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1976	$1,731	$0.88	13d	1	1.33mi
18436 Sunrise Pines Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1952	$2,200	$1.13	44d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Pending 368 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Pending 367 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Pending 366 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   status $275,000 Pending 365 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 365 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 363 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 362 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 359 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 358 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 357 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 354 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 353 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 352 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 351 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 350 DOM
16. 2026-02-11
    price $275,000 923-char remark

    Show marketing remark (923 chars)

    Welcome to your new 1,857sf one-story, 4-bedroom, DR Horton home! Located in Fairwater on FM 2854 near Hwy 105 in Montgomery, Texas, and filled with many great upgrades, including a tankless hot water heater, sprinkler system, purified drinking water tap at the kitchen sink, smart doorbell, and combo front and back door locks. The open concept floorplan is perfect for entertaining and seamless family living. Your family chef will love the gourmet kitchen with a large granite island, gas range, and huge walk-in pantry. Gather with your family in the bright, open family room with large windows overlooking the backyard. Relax and unwind after a long day in the luxurious owner's suite complete with an en-suite bath featuring dual sinks, a glass shower, a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. An oversized covered patio gives you space for a comfortable outdoor lounge space you can enjoy while the kiddos and pets play.

17. 2025-12-02
    price $299,000 923-char remark

    Show marketing remark (923 chars)

    Welcome to your new 1,857sf one-story, 4-bedroom, DR Horton home! Located in Fairwater on FM 2854 near Hwy 105 in Montgomery, Texas, and filled with many great upgrades, including a tankless hot water heater, sprinkler system, purified drinking water tap at the kitchen sink, smart doorbell, and combo front and back door locks. The open concept floorplan is perfect for entertaining and seamless family living. Your family chef will love the gourmet kitchen with a large granite island, gas range, and huge walk-in pantry. Gather with your family in the bright, open family room with large windows overlooking the backyard. Relax and unwind after a long day in the luxurious owner's suite complete with an en-suite bath featuring dual sinks, a glass shower, a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. An oversized covered patio gives you space for a comfortable outdoor lounge space you can enjoy while the kiddos and pets play.

18. 2025-10-03
    price $299,900 923-char remark

    Show marketing remark (923 chars)

    Welcome to your new 1,857sf one-story, 4-bedroom, DR Horton home! Located in Fairwater on FM 2854 near Hwy 105 in Montgomery, Texas, and filled with many great upgrades, including a tankless hot water heater, sprinkler system, purified drinking water tap at the kitchen sink, smart doorbell, and combo front and back door locks. The open concept floorplan is perfect for entertaining and seamless family living. Your family chef will love the gourmet kitchen with a large granite island, gas range, and huge walk-in pantry. Gather with your family in the bright, open family room with large windows overlooking the backyard. Relax and unwind after a long day in the luxurious owner's suite complete with an en-suite bath featuring dual sinks, a glass shower, a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. An oversized covered patio gives you space for a comfortable outdoor lounge space you can enjoy while the kiddos and pets play.

19. 2025-09-26
    price $307,995 923-char remark

    Show marketing remark (923 chars)

    Welcome to your new 1,857sf one-story, 4-bedroom, DR Horton home! Located in Fairwater on FM 2854 near Hwy 105 in Montgomery, Texas, and filled with many great upgrades, including a tankless hot water heater, sprinkler system, purified drinking water tap at the kitchen sink, smart doorbell, and combo front and back door locks. The open concept floorplan is perfect for entertaining and seamless family living. Your family chef will love the gourmet kitchen with a large granite island, gas range, and huge walk-in pantry. Gather with your family in the bright, open family room with large windows overlooking the backyard. Relax and unwind after a long day in the luxurious owner's suite complete with an en-suite bath featuring dual sinks, a glass shower, a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. An oversized covered patio gives you space for a comfortable outdoor lounge space you can enjoy while the kiddos and pets play.

20. 2025-08-01
    price $309,000 923-char remark

    Show marketing remark (923 chars)

    Welcome to your new 1,857sf one-story, 4-bedroom, DR Horton home! Located in Fairwater on FM 2854 near Hwy 105 in Montgomery, Texas, and filled with many great upgrades, including a tankless hot water heater, sprinkler system, purified drinking water tap at the kitchen sink, smart doorbell, and combo front and back door locks. The open concept floorplan is perfect for entertaining and seamless family living. Your family chef will love the gourmet kitchen with a large granite island, gas range, and huge walk-in pantry. Gather with your family in the bright, open family room with large windows overlooking the backyard. Relax and unwind after a long day in the luxurious owner's suite complete with an en-suite bath featuring dual sinks, a glass shower, a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. An oversized covered patio gives you space for a comfortable outdoor lounge space you can enjoy while the kiddos and pets play.

21. 2025-06-15
    listed $315,000 Active 923-char remark

    Show marketing remark (923 chars)

    Welcome to your new 1,857sf one-story, 4-bedroom, DR Horton home! Located in Fairwater on FM 2854 near Hwy 105 in Montgomery, Texas, and filled with many great upgrades, including a tankless hot water heater, sprinkler system, purified drinking water tap at the kitchen sink, smart doorbell, and combo front and back door locks. The open concept floorplan is perfect for entertaining and seamless family living. Your family chef will love the gourmet kitchen with a large granite island, gas range, and huge walk-in pantry. Gather with your family in the bright, open family room with large windows overlooking the backyard. Relax and unwind after a long day in the luxurious owner's suite complete with an en-suite bath featuring dual sinks, a glass shower, a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. An oversized covered patio gives you space for a comfortable outdoor lounge space you can enjoy while the kiddos and pets play.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,735 · $728/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,735 · $728/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,994
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$8,735
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,240
• − Management: −$2,240
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$10,900
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,616
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Fairwater is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a modern kitchen and bathrooms, a well-maintained exterior, and a good foundation/structure. The home is located in a desirable neighborhood with a community park and amenities. The property is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $307,995 HARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $309,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-15 Listed $315,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+77.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,735 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.