3003 N 33rd Ave · Avalon, FL 32583

$289,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,373 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2023 6,969 sqft lot Est $273k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home! This 3 bed 2 bath home comes with LVP floors throughout the whole home, granite countertops and white shaker soft close cabinets. This well thought out plan features over 1365 square feet and a 1 car garage. The large covered porch welcomes you home. Upon entering the home from the spacious foyer, the two guest bedrooms are conveniently located at the front of the house with laundry room and full bath. Just beyond the foyer is the open kitchen which overlooks the dinging area and spacious family room. The kitchen features granite countertops and makes the perfect space for family gatherings. The oversized master bedroom is privately located at the back of the home and boasts an incredible en-suite bath with double vanity, granite countertops, shower and enormous walk in closet. With a front and back porch as an extension of this home, you can enjoy the tranquility of Avalon Beach. Home comes with a one year Builders Warranty. Call today to ask about our closing cost incentive for buyers and to setup a showing!

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2023

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Avalon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#648 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bennett C Russell Elementary School (math 55% / reading 59%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 819 students, 59% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 36% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 832 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,969 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.54%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $273,227
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3003 N 33rd Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,365 (-1%)	0mo	$280,000	$205	99
3013 N 36th Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+7%)	3mo	$262,000	$178	76
5743 San Blas St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,261 (-8%)	2mo	$285,000	$226	73
2882 N 25th Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,375 (+0%)	5mo	$260,000	$189	71
5742 San Blas St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,261 (-8%)	8mo	$284,900	$226	68
5737 San Blas St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,261 (-8%)	7mo	$285,000	$226	68
2976 N 25th Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+6%)	3mo	$279,900	$193	64
2972 N 25th Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+6%)	3mo	$287,900	$199	63
5585 Santa Monica St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+9%)	4mo	$269,900	$180	60
2954 N 25th Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,465 (+7%)	7mo	$279,900	$191	59
3004 37th Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-13%)	7mo	$239,000	$200	58
2926 N 25th Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,465 (+7%)	8mo	$269,900	$184	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-50,152
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-38,174
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 832
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,187/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,302

Max offer price $270,596

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $59	-5% $-22	+0% $-104	+5% $-186	+10% $-268
Rent	-10% $-276	-5% $-190	+0% $-104	+5% $-18	+10% $67
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $-31	base $-104	+0.5pp $-179	+1.0pp $-255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3015 N 33rd Ave Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,950	$1.42	26d	1	0.06mi
3210 Electra Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1543	$2,000	$1.30	16d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   historical Contingent
3. 2026-04-08
   listed $289,000 Active
4. 2023-06-29
   soldstatus $284,900
5. 2023-06-27
   soldstatus $284,900 Sold 1039-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1039 chars)

   Welcome Home! This 3 bed 2 bath home comes with LVP floors throughout the whole home, granite countertops and white shaker soft close cabinets. This well thought out plan features over 1365 square feet and a 1 car garage. The large covered porch welcomes you home. Upon entering the home from the spacious foyer, the two guest bedrooms are conveniently located at the front of the house with laundry room and full bath. Just beyond the foyer is the open kitchen which overlooks the dinging area and spacious family room. The kitchen features granite countertops and makes the perfect space for family gatherings. The oversized master bedroom is privately located at the back of the home and boasts an incredible en-suite bath with double vanity, granite countertops, shower and enormous walk in closet. With a front and back porch as an extension of this home, you can enjoy the tranquility of Avalon Beach. Home comes with a one year Builders Warranty. Call today to ask about our closing cost incentive for buyers and to setup a showing!

6. 2023-05-09
   historical Contingent 1039-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1039 chars)

   Welcome Home! This 3 bed 2 bath home comes with LVP floors throughout the whole home, granite countertops and white shaker soft close cabinets. This well thought out plan features over 1365 square feet and a 1 car garage. The large covered porch welcomes you home. Upon entering the home from the spacious foyer, the two guest bedrooms are conveniently located at the front of the house with laundry room and full bath. Just beyond the foyer is the open kitchen which overlooks the dinging area and spacious family room. The kitchen features granite countertops and makes the perfect space for family gatherings. The oversized master bedroom is privately located at the back of the home and boasts an incredible en-suite bath with double vanity, granite countertops, shower and enormous walk in closet. With a front and back porch as an extension of this home, you can enjoy the tranquility of Avalon Beach. Home comes with a one year Builders Warranty. Call today to ask about our closing cost incentive for buyers and to setup a showing!

7. 2023-04-21
   listed $284,900 Active 1039-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1039 chars)

   Welcome Home! This 3 bed 2 bath home comes with LVP floors throughout the whole home, granite countertops and white shaker soft close cabinets. This well thought out plan features over 1365 square feet and a 1 car garage. The large covered porch welcomes you home. Upon entering the home from the spacious foyer, the two guest bedrooms are conveniently located at the front of the house with laundry room and full bath. Just beyond the foyer is the open kitchen which overlooks the dinging area and spacious family room. The kitchen features granite countertops and makes the perfect space for family gatherings. The oversized master bedroom is privately located at the back of the home and boasts an incredible en-suite bath with double vanity, granite countertops, shower and enormous walk in closet. With a front and back porch as an extension of this home, you can enjoy the tranquility of Avalon Beach. Home comes with a one year Builders Warranty. Call today to ask about our closing cost incentive for buyers and to setup a showing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,187 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,399 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: +$211/yr (+$18/mo · 9.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 3% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$2,187
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,083
• − Management: −$2,083
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$6,358
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,526
• After-tax cash flow: $276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Avalon

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #648
• US rank: #12530

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Avalon, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $289,000 PARMLS
• 2023-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $284,900 Public Records
• 2023-06-27 Sold (MLS) $284,900 PARMLS
• 2023-05-09 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2023-04-21 Listed $284,900 PARMLS

Property tax history

+183.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,187 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.