3816 Log Cabin Dr · Macon-Bibb County, GA 31204

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1962 1.48 ac lot $69/sqft · 28% above area Est $70k · 28% over ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Corner-lot home in the heart of Macon on approximately 1.48 acres. Conveniently located near major shopping, with a convenience store on the adjacent corner and Fillmore Thomas Park directly across the street featuring trails, picnic areas, basketball court, and playground. This 3BR/1BA home includes a converted two-car garage used as a den with a natural gas fireplace. Large, level backyard offers plenty of room for outdoor activities or future expansion.

Key facts

• Corner-lot home
• Large level backyard
• 1.48 acre lot

Tags

• CORNER-LOT HOME
• APPROXIMATELY 1.48 ACRES
• CONVERTED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• NATURAL GAS FIREPLACE
• LARGE LEVEL BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 5.5% in Macon-Bibb County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.97%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,172
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: 28.26%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1271 Sherbrooke Dr	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,275 (-2%)	13mo	$70,000	$55	72
3565 Log Cabin Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+0%)	4mo	$53,000	$41	70
4226 Robinson Cir	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,275 (-2%)	3mo	$106,500	$84	63
1305 Edna Pl	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,310 (+1%)	7mo	$65,000	$50	63
4106 Mumford Rd	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,276 (-2%)	11mo	$109,900	$86	57
1269 James St	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,150 (-11%)	10mo	$130,000	$113	55
3529 Thorpe St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,132 (-13%)	1mo	$42,000	$37	49
1104 Lamont St	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,277 (-2%)	14mo	$92,500	$72	47
1142 Lamont St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,436 (+11%)	4mo	$93,500	$65	44
3419 Hillcrest Rd	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,268 (-2%)	12mo	$75,000	$59	43
1060 Cypress Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,406 (+8%)	10mo	$108,000	$77	43
3677 Greenbriar Rd E	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,430 (+10%)	15mo	$159,900	$112	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $14,192
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $55,515
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31204

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,261 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $807/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $730

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $470	-5% $445	+0% $419	+5% $394	+10% $368
Rent	-10% $320	-5% $370	+0% $419	+5% $469	+10% $519
Rate	-1.0pp $465	-0.5pp $442	base $419	+0.5pp $396	+1.0pp $372

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1208 Fourth Ave W Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	960	$825	$0.86	45d	1	0.39mi
4053 Log Cabin Dr Unit B3 Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	950	$749	$0.79	22d	1	0.42mi
3713 Greenbriar Rd E Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,250	$0.78	45d	1	0.47mi
1187 Edna Pl Unit S-1206 Macon, GA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,060	$1.06	22d	1	0.52mi
1187 Edna Pl Unit S-0501 Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,000	$0.83	22d	1	0.52mi
1187 Edna Pl Unit S-0503 Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,125	$0.94	22d	1	0.52mi
1187 Edna Pl Unit S-1208 Macon, GA	2.0	2.0	1000	$850	$0.85	14d	1	0.52mi
1097 Edna Pl Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	1299	$1,300	$1.00	45d	1	0.53mi
3634 Dawn St Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	999	$850	$0.85	45d	1	0.72mi
1076 Carlisle Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,065	$1.04	22d	1	0.77mi
3944 Easy St Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,350	$0.87	45d	1	0.83mi
1196 Mimosa Dr Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	22d	1	0.86mi
3588 Morgan Dr Macon, GA	4.0	1.0	1080	$1,200	$1.11	22d	1	0.90mi
4151 Log Cabin Dr Macon, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	836	$1,434	$1.72	45d	1	0.92mi
4158 Log Cabin Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,375	$1.00	22d	1	0.93mi
3320 Guthrie Dr Macon, GA	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,500	$0.83	45d	1	0.97mi
4145 Forest Ave W Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1285	$1,195	$0.93	45d	1	0.97mi
3645 Mercer University Dr Macon, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0	874	$850	$0.97	45d	4	1.00mi
3346 Shaw Dr Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1094	$895	$0.82	22d	1	1.01mi
3775 Grand Ave Macon, GA	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,175	$0.95	14d	1	1.04mi
4265 Hillary Pl Macon, GA	4.0	2.0	1250	$1,450	$1.16	45d	1	1.05mi
1515 Burton Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1568	$1,250	$0.80	22d	1	1.06mi
3147 Westover Dr Macon, GA	4.0	2.0	1705	$1,475	$0.87	22d	1	1.10mi
307 Ironwood Ct Macon, GA	3.0	2.5	1522	$1,695	$1.11	22d	1	1.12mi
308 Ironwood Ct Macon, GA	3.0	2.5	1648	$1,745	$1.06	22d	1	1.12mi
308 Ironwood Ct Macon, GA	3.0	2.5	1648	$1,745	$1.06	45d	1	1.12mi
255 Hawthorn Trl Macon, GA	3.0	2.5	1566	$1,545	$0.99	45d	1	1.13mi
3096 Sharon Dr Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	1850	$1,050	$0.57	14d	1	1.14mi
3834 Mercer St Macon, GA	2.0	1.0	1000	$875	$0.88	45d	1	1.15mi
3840 Napier Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1365	$1,350	$0.99	14d	1	1.18mi
342 Ironwood Ct Macon, GA	3.0	2.5	1648	$1,745	$1.06	22d	1	1.18mi
1596 Burton Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1117	$895	$0.80	14d	1	1.19mi
3495 Charleston Cir Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1048	$799	$0.76	22d	1	1.19mi
3495 Charleston Cir Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1048	$875	$0.83	45d	1	1.19mi
1528 Wellworth Ave Macon, GA	3.0	1.0	1126	$1,000	$0.89	22d	1	1.19mi
3469 Kingsbury Dr Macon, GA	4.0	2.0	1100	$1,295	$1.18	45d	1	1.20mi
371 Ironwood Ct Macon, GA	3.0	2.5	1648	$1,745	$1.06	22d	1	1.20mi
371 Ironwood Ct Macon, GA	3.0	2.5	1648	$1,745	$1.06	45d	1	1.20mi
373 Ironwood Ct Macon, GA	3.0	2.5	1648	$1,745	$1.06	22d	1	1.20mi
373 Ironwood Ct Macon, GA	3.0	2.5	1648	$1,745	$1.06	45d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $90,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $90,000 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $90,000 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $90,000 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    statusdays on market $90,000 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Price Change 117 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Price Change 116 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    pricestatus $90,000 Price Change 115 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 115 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 114 DOM
19. 2026-03-27
    price $99,000 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Corner-lot home in the heart of Macon on approximately 1.48 acres. Conveniently located near major shopping, with a convenience store on the adjacent corner and Fillmore Thomas Park directly across the street featuring trails, picnic areas, basketball court, and playground. This 3BR/1BA home includes a converted two-car garage used as a den with a natural gas fireplace. Large, level backyard offers plenty of room for outdoor activities or future expansion.

20. 2026-02-05
    listed $105,000 New 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Corner-lot home in the heart of Macon on approximately 1.48 acres. Conveniently located near major shopping, with a convenience store on the adjacent corner and Fillmore Thomas Park directly across the street featuring trails, picnic areas, basketball court, and playground. This 3BR/1BA home includes a converted two-car garage used as a den with a natural gas fireplace. Large, level backyard offers plenty of room for outdoor activities or future expansion.

21. 2026-02-04
    historical
22. 2025-12-30
    listed $115,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $807 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $828 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$21/yr (+$2/mo · 2.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$807
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,210
• − Management: −$1,210
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $3,793
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$910
• After-tax cash flow: $4,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bibb County
• NCES district ID: 1300420
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,426
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9654
• State rank: #161 of 174 in GA

Livability — Macon-Bibb County

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• County: Bibb County · 164,332 people
• City population: 143,186
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• Population (ZIP): 32,421
• Household income: $38,784
• Rent vs Own: 57.5% rent · 42.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2674.0

Population outlook (Bibb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 148,772 people
• By 2030: 145,904 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 139,404 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 131,603 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 111,050 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 83,346 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 65% White 28% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bibb

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.4) · D 61.0% · R 38.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.4pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.4 2020: D+23.8 2016: D+20.2 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.44%
• Current HPI: 194.5459
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.61%
• Metro: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-13.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $99,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $105,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-12-30 Listed $115,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $807 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.