151 Gardiner Lake Rd · Louisville, KY 40205

$225,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,098 sqft · Condo · 113 Days on market

Built 1984 $372/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Incredible opportunity in Gardiner Lake Condominiums! This is a 3 bedroom, 3 full bath unit spanning 3 floors with over 2000 finished square feet! On the first level you will find a lovely foyer with parquet floors, dining room, kitchen, a full bathroom and living room that opens to a large deck. The second level includes the primary bedroom with balcony and bathroom, 2 other bedrooms, another full bath and the laundry area. The finished basement completes the home with a utility area and extra storage. The area is also plumbed for an additional bathroom. Condo fee is $281.00 a month and includes water, exterior insurance, groundskeeping and snow removal.

Key facts

• New balcony
• Primary suite
• Finished basement

Tags

• NEWLY CONSTRUCTED WOOD DECK
• PRIMARY SUITE
• NEW BALCONY
• FINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a 53-unit condominium building with three building floors; Above-grade finished area and below-grade finished/unfinished areas reported
• HOA & community: Condo association with monthly maintenance (approximately $372); Association covers groundskeeping, snow removal, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Two assigned surface parking spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Traditional-style condominium; Two stories; Located in building number 9
• Construction: Built in 1984; Wood frame and brick construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Balcony; Sidewalks; Located on a dead-end street

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms located on the second floor; One additional finished room in the basement (other)
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; One fireplace on the first level; Partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: No first-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-357/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (2.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $205k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $180k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.57%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-32,398
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-5,046
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40205

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,326 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,661/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$372
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,364

Max offer price $219,749

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3013 Wellbrooke Rd Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1936	$2,250	$1.16	3d	1	0.88mi
3013 Wellbrooke Rd Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1936	$2,250	$1.16	11d	1	0.88mi
1915 Overlook Ter Louisville, KY	3.0	2.5	2855	$3,180	$1.11	23d	1	1.28mi
1916 Yale Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,395	$1.71	23d	1	1.31mi
2103 Wrocklage Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1798	$3,100	$1.72	16d	1	1.41mi
2526 Gardiner Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	16d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $372 · $4,464/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingsnow removal
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-05-22
    price $225,000
15. 2026-05-17
    price $235,000
16. 2026-02-26
    listed $240,000 Active
17. 2021-05-07
    soldstatus $179,900
18. 2021-05-06
    soldstatus $179,900 Closed 667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (667 chars)

    Incredible opportunity in Gardiner Lake Condominiums! This is a 3 bedroom, 3 full bath unit spanning 3 floors with over 2000 finished square feet! On the first level you will find a lovely foyer with parquet floors, dining room, kitchen, a full bathroom and living room that opens to a large deck. The second level includes the primary bedroom with balcony and bathroom, 2 other bedrooms, another full bath and the laundry area. The finished basement completes the home with a utility area and extra storage. The area is also plumbed for an additional bathroom. Condo fee is $281.00 a month and includes water, exterior insurance, groundskeeping and snow removal.

19. 2021-04-06
    status Pending 667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (667 chars)

    Incredible opportunity in Gardiner Lake Condominiums! This is a 3 bedroom, 3 full bath unit spanning 3 floors with over 2000 finished square feet! On the first level you will find a lovely foyer with parquet floors, dining room, kitchen, a full bathroom and living room that opens to a large deck. The second level includes the primary bedroom with balcony and bathroom, 2 other bedrooms, another full bath and the laundry area. The finished basement completes the home with a utility area and extra storage. The area is also plumbed for an additional bathroom. Condo fee is $281.00 a month and includes water, exterior insurance, groundskeeping and snow removal.

20. 2021-03-17
    historical Active Under Contract 667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (667 chars)

    Incredible opportunity in Gardiner Lake Condominiums! This is a 3 bedroom, 3 full bath unit spanning 3 floors with over 2000 finished square feet! On the first level you will find a lovely foyer with parquet floors, dining room, kitchen, a full bathroom and living room that opens to a large deck. The second level includes the primary bedroom with balcony and bathroom, 2 other bedrooms, another full bath and the laundry area. The finished basement completes the home with a utility area and extra storage. The area is also plumbed for an additional bathroom. Condo fee is $281.00 a month and includes water, exterior insurance, groundskeeping and snow removal.

21. 2021-03-13
    listed $179,900 Active 667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (667 chars)

    Incredible opportunity in Gardiner Lake Condominiums! This is a 3 bedroom, 3 full bath unit spanning 3 floors with over 2000 finished square feet! On the first level you will find a lovely foyer with parquet floors, dining room, kitchen, a full bathroom and living room that opens to a large deck. The second level includes the primary bedroom with balcony and bathroom, 2 other bedrooms, another full bath and the laundry area. The finished basement completes the home with a utility area and extra storage. The area is also plumbed for an additional bathroom. Condo fee is $281.00 a month and includes water, exterior insurance, groundskeeping and snow removal.

22. 2017-06-19
    soldstatus $162,500
23. 2017-06-12
    soldstatus $162,500 Closed 1168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1168 chars)

    Great location located between Newburg Road and Bardstown Road! 3 bedroom, 3 full bath town home with finished basement. Beautiful foyer with hardwood parquet flooring welcomes you in. Elegant touches in the Formal dining room include hardwood floors, bay window, crown molding, finger molding and chandelier. You will love spending time in the living room that opens to the large 13.5 x 11' deck.Living room has a fireplace in the corner and hardwood floors. Nice sized eat-in kitchen with plenty of cabinets, double sink and pantry. Lower level Family room is nicely finished. Other finished room was used as a bedroom (only one form of egress) and has a closet. This room is plumbed for a bathroom. Additional storage space in the unfinished area. (See additional remarks) Master bedroom & bath are on 2nd level includes large walk-in closet and a 2nd deck which you access through french doors to the balcony. 2 more bedrooms are on this level. The laundry is located up here too. The washer & dryer stay with the home. A one year home warranty is included. Parking is located right outside your front door. Come have a look at this beautiful home today.

24. 2017-04-30
    status Pending 1168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1168 chars)

    Great location located between Newburg Road and Bardstown Road! 3 bedroom, 3 full bath town home with finished basement. Beautiful foyer with hardwood parquet flooring welcomes you in. Elegant touches in the Formal dining room include hardwood floors, bay window, crown molding, finger molding and chandelier. You will love spending time in the living room that opens to the large 13.5 x 11' deck.Living room has a fireplace in the corner and hardwood floors. Nice sized eat-in kitchen with plenty of cabinets, double sink and pantry. Lower level Family room is nicely finished. Other finished room was used as a bedroom (only one form of egress) and has a closet. This room is plumbed for a bathroom. Additional storage space in the unfinished area. (See additional remarks) Master bedroom & bath are on 2nd level includes large walk-in closet and a 2nd deck which you access through french doors to the balcony. 2 more bedrooms are on this level. The laundry is located up here too. The washer & dryer stay with the home. A one year home warranty is included. Parking is located right outside your front door. Come have a look at this beautiful home today.

25. 2017-04-27
    listed $164,900 Active 1168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1168 chars)

    Great location located between Newburg Road and Bardstown Road! 3 bedroom, 3 full bath town home with finished basement. Beautiful foyer with hardwood parquet flooring welcomes you in. Elegant touches in the Formal dining room include hardwood floors, bay window, crown molding, finger molding and chandelier. You will love spending time in the living room that opens to the large 13.5 x 11' deck.Living room has a fireplace in the corner and hardwood floors. Nice sized eat-in kitchen with plenty of cabinets, double sink and pantry. Lower level Family room is nicely finished. Other finished room was used as a bedroom (only one form of egress) and has a closet. This room is plumbed for a bathroom. Additional storage space in the unfinished area. (See additional remarks) Master bedroom & bath are on 2nd level includes large walk-in closet and a 2nd deck which you access through french doors to the balcony. 2 more bedrooms are on this level. The laundry is located up here too. The washer & dryer stay with the home. A one year home warranty is included. Parking is located right outside your front door. Come have a look at this beautiful home today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,661 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,661 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,914
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,661
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,233
• − Management: −$2,233
• − HOA: −$4,464
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,951
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$948
• After-tax cash flow: $592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 24,664
• Household income: $99,966
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 492.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -384.33%
• Current HPI: 253.5022
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.39%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+36.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $225,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $235,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $240,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2021-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $179,900 Public Records
• 2021-05-06 Sold (MLS) $179,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2021-04-06 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2021-03-17 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2021-03-13 Listed $179,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $162,500 Public Records
• 2017-06-12 Sold (MLS) $162,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-04-30 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2017-04-27 Listed $164,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,661 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.