2959 Frances Ave · Jacksonville, FL 32218

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 184 Days on market

Built 2022 4,356 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully maintained 2022 mobile home is ready for its first residents, offering a perfect mix of rural charm and city convenience, just 20 minutes from downtown Jacksonville. The property features two newly built decks for outdoor relaxation and entertainment. Inside, you'll find a modern, pristine interior with brand new stainless-steel appliances in the kitchen. Enjoy a peaceful lifestyle with easy access to all that Jacksonville has to offer.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 2022
• Listed 184 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Mobile Home; Used as manufactured single-family residence
• Exterior features: Lot of 0.1 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Central heating; Central air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $420 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Garden City Elementary School (math 62% / reading 37%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 377 students, 68% FRL); Highlands Middle School (math 31% / reading 21%, grade F, #506 of 571 statewide, top 89%, 697 students, 73% FRL); First Coast High School (math 18% / reading 33%, grade F, #499 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,117 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 735 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $149k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.07%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $61,440
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3032 Snell St	0.29mi	3/2.0	960 (0%)	1mo	$172,900	$180	86
2971 Duane Ave	0.05mi	2/— (-1)	945 (-2%)	21mo	$37,200	$39	73
3224 Duane Ave	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	858 (-11%)	8mo	$55,000	$64	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,366
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $13,230
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32218

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 735
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,668 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $659/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $504	-5% $462	+0% $420	+5% $377	+10% $335
Rent	-10% $288	-5% $354	+0% $420	+5% $485	+10% $551
Rate	-1.0pp $495	-0.5pp $457	base $420	+0.5pp $381	+1.0pp $342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3216 Duane Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	748	$1,098	$1.47	9d	1	0.28mi
3025 Armstrong St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,461	$1.30	21d	1	0.30mi
2445 Dunn Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,815	$2.14	3d	11	0.64mi
10535 Lem Turner Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1012	$1,562	$1.54	5d	40	1.01mi
4212 Pointe Haven Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1054	$1,800	$1.71	25d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 184 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 171 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 170 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,000 Active 166 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 165 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 164 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 163 DOM
13. 2026-04-01
    price $149,000
14. 2026-03-12
    status Active
15. 2026-03-08
    historical Active Under Contract
16. 2025-12-19
    listed $156,000 Active
17. 2025-08-18
    historical 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    This beautifully maintained 2022 mobile home is ready for its first residents, offering a perfect mix of rural charm and city convenience, just 20 minutes from downtown Jacksonville. The property features two newly built decks for outdoor relaxation and entertainment. Inside, you'll find a modern, pristine interior with brand new stainless-steel appliances in the kitchen. Enjoy a peaceful lifestyle with easy access to all that Jacksonville has to offer.

18. 2025-06-19
    price $158,500 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    This beautifully maintained 2022 mobile home is ready for its first residents, offering a perfect mix of rural charm and city convenience, just 20 minutes from downtown Jacksonville. The property features two newly built decks for outdoor relaxation and entertainment. Inside, you'll find a modern, pristine interior with brand new stainless-steel appliances in the kitchen. Enjoy a peaceful lifestyle with easy access to all that Jacksonville has to offer.

19. 2025-06-10
    price $169,000 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    This beautifully maintained 2022 mobile home is ready for its first residents, offering a perfect mix of rural charm and city convenience, just 20 minutes from downtown Jacksonville. The property features two newly built decks for outdoor relaxation and entertainment. Inside, you'll find a modern, pristine interior with brand new stainless-steel appliances in the kitchen. Enjoy a peaceful lifestyle with easy access to all that Jacksonville has to offer.

20. 2025-04-04
    listed $175,000 Active 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    This beautifully maintained 2022 mobile home is ready for its first residents, offering a perfect mix of rural charm and city convenience, just 20 minutes from downtown Jacksonville. The property features two newly built decks for outdoor relaxation and entertainment. Inside, you'll find a modern, pristine interior with brand new stainless-steel appliances in the kitchen. Enjoy a peaceful lifestyle with easy access to all that Jacksonville has to offer.

21. 2008-05-22
    soldstatus $58,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $659 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,237 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$578/yr (+$48/mo · 87.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$659
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,602
• − Management: −$1,602
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $2,732
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$656
• After-tax cash flow: $4,379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 72,905
• Household income: $69,638
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2289.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.73%
• Current HPI: 262.2329
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.40%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+156.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $149,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-12 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-03-08 Contingent — realMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $156,000 realMLS
• 2025-08-18 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $158,500 realMLS
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $169,000 realMLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed $175,000 realMLS
• 2008-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $58,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $659 · +45.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.