6216 Friesian Dr · Godley, TX 76044

$184,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2003 1.13 ac lot $144/sqft · 15% below area Est $217k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fresh, clean, and ready for its new family! A fresh coat of paint and updated flooring offer the perfect opportunity for a new beginning. The split bedroom plan allows for some privacy. The family can share the open living, dining, and kitchen areas. This home sits on an oversized corner lot shaded by beautiful, mature trees. Pride of ownership is evident throughout, making this a true move-in-ready property—just pack your things and settle in. Come take a look today!

Key facts

• Oversized corner lot
• Split bedroom plan
• Mature trees

Tags

• SPLIT BEDROOM PLAN
• OVERSIZED CORNER LOT
• MATURE TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $439 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 2.8% in Godley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#226 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Godley ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Legacy El (math 39% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 408 students, 32% FRL); Godley H S (math 27% / reading 51%, grade F, #859 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 777 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 570 active listings in the ZIP; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,126 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.17%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,950
• List price: $184,900
• Delta: -14.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6216 Friesian Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,288 (0%)	1mo	$184,900	$144	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,994
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $34,368
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76044

• Home prices YoY: -12.4%
• Active inventory: 570
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,172 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,772/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,617

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $543	-5% $491	+0% $439	+5% $386	+10% $334
Rent	-10% $267	-5% $353	+0% $439	+5% $524	+10% $610
Rate	-1.0pp $532	-0.5pp $486	base $439	+0.5pp $391	+1.0pp $342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 479-char remark

   Show marketing remark (479 chars)

   Fresh, clean, and ready for its new family! A fresh coat of paint and updated flooring offer the perfect opportunity for a new beginning. The split bedroom plan allows for some privacy. The family can share the open living, dining, and kitchen areas. This home sits on an oversized corner lot shaded by beautiful, mature trees. Pride of ownership is evident throughout, making this a true move-in-ready property—just pack your things and settle in. Come take a look today!

2. 2026-04-26
   status Active 479-char remark

   Show marketing remark (479 chars)

   Fresh, clean, and ready for its new family! A fresh coat of paint and updated flooring offer the perfect opportunity for a new beginning. The split bedroom plan allows for some privacy. The family can share the open living, dining, and kitchen areas. This home sits on an oversized corner lot shaded by beautiful, mature trees. Pride of ownership is evident throughout, making this a true move-in-ready property—just pack your things and settle in. Come take a look today!

3. 2026-04-19
   historical Active Option Contract 479-char remark

   Show marketing remark (479 chars)

   Fresh, clean, and ready for its new family! A fresh coat of paint and updated flooring offer the perfect opportunity for a new beginning. The split bedroom plan allows for some privacy. The family can share the open living, dining, and kitchen areas. This home sits on an oversized corner lot shaded by beautiful, mature trees. Pride of ownership is evident throughout, making this a true move-in-ready property—just pack your things and settle in. Come take a look today!

4. 2026-04-10
   listed $184,900 Active 479-char remark

   Show marketing remark (479 chars)

   Fresh, clean, and ready for its new family! A fresh coat of paint and updated flooring offer the perfect opportunity for a new beginning. The split bedroom plan allows for some privacy. The family can share the open living, dining, and kitchen areas. This home sits on an oversized corner lot shaded by beautiful, mature trees. Pride of ownership is evident throughout, making this a true move-in-ready property—just pack your things and settle in. Come take a look today!

5. 2011-04-03
   historical
6. 2010-12-09
   price $64,900
7. 2010-10-01
   listed $69,900 Active
8. 2010-09-29
   historical
9. 2010-07-06
   listed $69,900
10. 2009-02-10
    soldstatus
11. 2006-08-28
    soldstatus
12. 2006-08-08
    historical
13. 2006-07-30
    listed $61,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,772 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,384 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$612/yr (+$51/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,070
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$2,772
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,086
• − Management: −$2,086
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable income: $2,466
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$592
• After-tax cash flow: $4,671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Godley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,332
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5820
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

Livability — Godley

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #5528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,759

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.58%
• Current HPI: 259.1029
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+198.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-26 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-19 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $184,900 NTREIS
• 2011-04-03 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2010-12-09 Price Changed $64,900 NTREIS
• 2010-10-01 Listed $69,900 NTREIS
• 2010-09-29 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2010-07-06 Listed $69,900 NTREIS
• 2009-02-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-08-28 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2006-08-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2006-07-30 Listed $61,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,772 · -20.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.