Rayburn III Plan · Forney, TX 75126

$343,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,261 sqft · SingleFamily · 300 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Rayburn III is a spacious 2-story home designed to fit families of all sizes. With 46 bedrooms, 25 baths, and a 3rd-car garage, theres room for everyoneplus a little extra. The open floor plan lets you keep an eye on things in the living room while youre in the kitchen, perfect for casual get-togethers or busy weekdays. Enjoy fresh air on the large front porch or the covered patio, and head upstairs to the game room when its time for fun. Looking for some personal touches? Add an extended covered patio, a cozy fireplace or even extend the game room for more play space. An optional study and media room makes this home perfect for work or play.

Key facts

• Optional study
• Open floor plan
• Large front porch

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• COVERED PATIO
• GAME ROOM
• OPTIONAL STUDY
• MEDIA ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $343,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $354,780.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $344k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-172 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $330k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($303k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $288,616 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.07%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,780
• List price: $343,990
• Delta: -3.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1181 Nora Ln	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,318 (+2%)	0mo	$329,990	$142	76
2162 Charming Forge Rd	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,285 (+1%)	1mo	$484,480	$212	72
1165 Nora Ln	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,171 (-4%)	0mo	$399,900	$184	67
1431 Kirkdale Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,196 (-3%)	2mo	$399,990	$182	67
1603 Granton Way	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,593 (+15%)	1mo	$449,000	$173	64
2929 Soaring Hills Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,188 (-3%)	1mo	$374,900	$171	60
1347 Cress Garden Ln	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,106 (-7%)	1mo	$319,900	$152	60
1185 Nora Ln	0.36mi	4/3.5	2,536 (+12%)	1mo	$349,990	$138	58
2235 Willowbank Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,986 (-12%)	0mo	$317,990	$160	56
1889 Balfour Bnd	0.42mi	4/3.5	2,537 (+12%)	1mo	$347,990	$137	55
2935 Soaring Hills Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,426 (+7%)	1mo	$424,900	$175	54
2019 Brewers Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,984 (-12%)	1mo	$352,900	$178	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-72,902
• Equity at exit: $52,899

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-95,346
• Equity at exit: $30,675

Cash invested: $99,339 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,886 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,861
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$443 /mo · $5,322/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$606
• Net cashflow: $-172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,104

Max offer price $329,929

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $73	-5% $-49	+0% $-172	+5% $-294	+10% $-417
Rent	-10% $-400	-5% $-286	+0% $-172	+5% $-58	+10% $56
Rate	-1.0pp $7	-0.5pp $-82	base $-172	+0.5pp $-264	+1.0pp $-357

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,695
• Closing costs: $10,643
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2116 Sunnymede Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2854	$3,300	$1.16	22d	1	0.09mi
2136 Sunnymede Dr Forney, TX	4.0	4.0	2805	$3,200	$1.14	2d	1	0.14mi
2029 Dovedale Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2426	$3,200	$1.32	45d	1	0.46mi
2287 Cliff Springs Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,195	$1.10	45d	1	0.47mi
1806 Balfour Bnd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1981	$2,600	$1.31	25d	1	0.53mi
1120 Canterbury Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2450	$2,950	$1.20	14d	1	0.56mi
1633 Briar Hunt Dr Forney, TX	5.0	2.5	2470	$2,500	$1.01	22d	1	0.64mi
1636 Briar Hunt Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$2,250	$1.12	45d	1	0.67mi
2452 Brightling Bnd Forney, TX	5.0	4.0	3200	$3,495	$1.09	20d	1	0.67mi
1718 Cecil Crest Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2147	$2,395	$1.12	45d	1	0.70mi
1729 High Perch Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,350	$1.37	45d	1	0.70mi
1425 Rolling Fox Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2886	$3,300	$1.14	0d	1	0.70mi
1128 Queensdown Way Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2097	$2,999	$1.43	45d	1	0.72mi
1158 Barbary Fields St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,200	$1.24	0d	1	0.75mi
1448 Kingswell Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2208	$2,950	$1.34	25d	1	0.78mi
635 Brockwell Bnd Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2506	$3,300	$1.32	21d	1	0.79mi
1631 Rosy Finch Dr Heath, TX	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,600	$1.56	18d	1	0.81mi
1625 Rosy Finch Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$2,095	$1.26	45d	1	0.84mi
1622 Rosy Finch Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,195	$1.32	45d	1	0.85mi
2023 Avondown Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,191	$1.34	0d	1	0.91mi
1708 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$1,840	$1.05	16d	1	0.98mi
1410 Crossford Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2707	$2,650	$0.98	3d	1	1.00mi
1220 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$1,815	$1.06	8d	1	1.07mi
1211 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,400	$1.45	23d	1	1.08mi
2422 Arbutus Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2111	$2,045	$0.97	25d	1	1.09mi
1017 Somerset Cir Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2185	$2,375	$1.09	8d	1	1.13mi
1421 Kirkhill Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$3,600	$1.41	25d	1	1.14mi
1421 Kirkhill Ln Unit 1421 Heath, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$3,500	$1.38	22d	1	1.14mi
2239 Heaton Forney, TX	5.0	2.5	2780	$3,299	$1.19	18d	1	1.17mi
2225 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1909	$2,150	$1.13	45d	1	1.21mi
1535 Calcot Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2036	$2,600	$1.28	16d	1	1.22mi
1025 Dunhill Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2273	$2,450	$1.08	3d	1	1.23mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	8d	1	1.24mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	18d	1	1.24mi
2043 Pleasant Knoll Cir Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,099	$1.21	45d	1	1.26mi
1036 Edgefield Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2800	$6,700	$2.39	45d	1	1.27mi
1539 Wheatley Way Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2396	$2,995	$1.25	18d	1	1.27mi
1539 Wheatley Way Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2396	$2,800	$1.17	11d	1	1.27mi
2016 Croftbank St Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,600	$1.35	0d	1	1.32mi
1229 Autumn Mist Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2609	$2,795	$1.07	5d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $343,990 Active 300 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $343,990 Active 297 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $343,990 Active 296 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $343,990 Active 295 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $343,990 Active 294 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $343,990 Active 292 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $343,990 Active 291 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $343,990 Active 288 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $343,990 Active 287 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $343,990 Active 286 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $343,990 Active 283 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $343,990 Active 282 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $343,990 Active 281 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $343,990 Active 280 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $343,990 Active 279 DOM
16. 2026-04-18
    price $343,990 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    The Rayburn III is a spacious 2-story home designed to fit families of all sizes. With 46 bedrooms, 25 baths, and a 3rd-car garage, theres room for everyoneplus a little extra. The open floor plan lets you keep an eye on things in the living room while youre in the kitchen, perfect for casual get-togethers or busy weekdays. Enjoy fresh air on the large front porch or the covered patio, and head upstairs to the game room when its time for fun. Looking for some personal touches? Add an extended covered patio, a cozy fireplace or even extend the game room for more play space. An optional study and media room makes this home perfect for work or play.

17. 2026-01-07
    price $362,990 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    The Rayburn III is a spacious 2-story home designed to fit families of all sizes. With 46 bedrooms, 25 baths, and a 3rd-car garage, theres room for everyoneplus a little extra. The open floor plan lets you keep an eye on things in the living room while youre in the kitchen, perfect for casual get-togethers or busy weekdays. Enjoy fresh air on the large front porch or the covered patio, and head upstairs to the game room when its time for fun. Looking for some personal touches? Add an extended covered patio, a cozy fireplace or even extend the game room for more play space. An optional study and media room makes this home perfect for work or play.

18. 2025-08-25
    listed $367,990 Active 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    The Rayburn III is a spacious 2-story home designed to fit families of all sizes. With 46 bedrooms, 25 baths, and a 3rd-car garage, theres room for everyoneplus a little extra. The open floor plan lets you keep an eye on things in the living room while youre in the kitchen, perfect for casual get-togethers or busy weekdays. Enjoy fresh air on the large front porch or the covered patio, and head upstairs to the game room when its time for fun. Looking for some personal touches? Add an extended covered patio, a cozy fireplace or even extend the game room for more play space. An optional study and media room makes this home perfect for work or play.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,634
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,873
• − Property taxes: −$5,322
• − Insurance: −$1,774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,771
• − Management: −$2,771
• − Depreciation: −$10,321
• Taxable loss: −$8,197
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,967
• After-tax cash flow: $-94/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Rayburn III home in Forney, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious floor plan and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and safety

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and safety ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $343,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $362,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-25 Listed $367,990 Zillow