16723 Lone Quail Ct · Houston, TX 77489

$234,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,662 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1983 7,200 sqft lot $141/sqft · at area comps Est $230k · at est. $34/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated in a charming neighborhood, this lovely residence features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a generous open layout. The kitchen is updated with stainless steel appliances, a new microwave installed 4_19 and granite countertops. Relax in the tranquil backyard with a patio, ideal for outdoor gatherings. The master suite includes a walk-in closet and a private bathroom. With contemporary touches throughout, this home is ready for new occupants. Conveniently located near schools, parks, and shopping, this property offers a comfortable and stylish living space for those in search of a new home.

Key facts

• Tranquil backyard
• Walk-in closet
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TRANQUIL BACKYARD
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $234k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-869/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edgar Glover Jr El (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 380 students, 87% FRL); Missouri City Middle (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,177 of 1,662 statewide, top 72%, 963 students, 88% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 35% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 188 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $328 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,797 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,088
• List price: $234,000
• Delta: 1.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16610 Quail Prairie Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,644 (-1%)	4mo	$239,500	$146	85
16626 Quail Run Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,644 (-1%)	6mo	$210,000	$128	82
16718 Running Quail Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,686 (+1%)	1mo	$235,000	$139	77
8434 Quail Crest Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-6%)	3mo	$239,500	$154	76
8402 Bird Meadow Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+0%)	6mo	$249,900	$150	74
16331 Hunting Dog Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,649 (-1%)	7mo	$265,000	$161	68
16614 Quiet Quail Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,505 (-9%)	6mo	$199,999	$133	66
16711 Running Quail Ct	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-10%)	3mo	$210,000	$140	58
8403 Blossom Bell Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,547 (-7%)	6mo	$245,000	$158	57
2507 Rittenmore Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-6%)	1mo	$235,000	$150	52
2518 Edgedale Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,502 (-10%)	9mo	$209,000	$139	49
2422 Doverglen Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,848 (+11%)	1mo	$249,000	$135	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.55% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-22,611
• Equity at exit: $61,569

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-21,597
• Equity at exit: $69,094

Cash invested: $65,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77489

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,998 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,227
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,507/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,090

Max offer price $221,204

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $60	-5% $-6	+0% $-72	+5% $-139	+10% $-205
Rent	-10% $-230	-5% $-151	+0% $-72	+5% $6	+10% $85
Rate	-1.0pp $45	-0.5pp $-13	base $-72	+0.5pp $-133	+1.0pp $-195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,500
• Closing costs: $7,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16310 Setter Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,700	$1.02	45d	1	0.51mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	22d	1	0.80mi
712 Beechbend Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,250	$1.00	22d	1	0.95mi
15823 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,641	$1.23	7d	1	1.06mi
1215 New Tree Ln Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,725	$1.30	14d	1	1.09mi
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	45d	1	1.18mi
15703 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,615	$1.29	21d	1	1.22mi
1806 Courtside Place Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	1974	$1,915	$0.97	14d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $234,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $234,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $234,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $234,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $234,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $234,000 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $234,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-04-25
    price $234,000 601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    Situated in a charming neighborhood, this lovely residence features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a generous open layout. The kitchen is updated with stainless steel appliances, a new microwave installed 4_19 and granite countertops. Relax in the tranquil backyard with a patio, ideal for outdoor gatherings. The master suite includes a walk-in closet and a private bathroom. With contemporary touches throughout, this home is ready for new occupants. Conveniently located near schools, parks, and shopping, this property offers a comfortable and stylish living space for those in search of a new home.

15. 2026-03-31
    listed $239,900 Active 601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    Situated in a charming neighborhood, this lovely residence features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a generous open layout. The kitchen is updated with stainless steel appliances, a new microwave installed 4_19 and granite countertops. Relax in the tranquil backyard with a patio, ideal for outdoor gatherings. The master suite includes a walk-in closet and a private bathroom. With contemporary touches throughout, this home is ready for new occupants. Conveniently located near schools, parks, and shopping, this property offers a comfortable and stylish living space for those in search of a new home.

16. 2000-07-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,507 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,282 · $357/mo
• Expected delta: +$776/yr (+$65/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,108
• − Property taxes: −$3,507
• − Insurance: −$1,170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,918
• − Management: −$1,918
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$6,807
• Taxable loss: −$4,860
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,166
• After-tax cash flow: $297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,292
• Household income: $74,689
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% White 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Current HPI: 288.1306
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $234,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2000-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,507 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.