126 Grandview Ave · Tonawanda Town, NY 14223

$279,999

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,248 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1964 4,797 sqft lot Est $317k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3/3 double! Features hardwood floors thru-out, upstairs with open floor plan, LR / DR combos, newer light fixtures, lower updated bath w/ pedestal sink, fully applianced, vinyl sided, good closet space, good size rooms, poured basement walls, both furnaces updated 1-12/2018 and other approx 6 years old, circuit breakers, copper plumbing, 1 semi finished room in basement. .. perfect for the owner occupied 1 great house!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Kitchen appliances
• Updated furnaces

Tags

• SPACIOUS UNITS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• ROOF REPLACED
• UPDATED FURNACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,320/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($84k/yr) (locally 368% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $193k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.

Recommended offer $279,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.21%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $316,968
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20 Hawthorne Ave	0.21mi	6/2.0	2,208 (-2%)	11mo	$312,000	$141	78
300 Windermere Blvd	0.36mi	6/2.0	2,325 (+3%)	2mo	$355,000	$153	76
150 Englewood Ave	0.50mi	6/2.0	2,239 (-0%)	5mo	$338,000	$151	71
157 Springville Ave	0.49mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,292 (+2%)	13mo	$300,000	$131	58
235 Heath St	0.57mi	6/2.0	2,058 (-8%)	10mo	$303,000	$147	50
1 Emsworth Ave	0.22mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,482 (+10%)	17mo	$250,000	$101	49
116 Nicholson St	0.62mi	6/2.0	2,464 (+10%)	13mo	$151,000	$61	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-19,301
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $17,383
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14223

• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,320 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$632 /mo · $7,584/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$697
• Net cashflow: $406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,806

Max offer price $279,999

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $564	-5% $485	+0% $406	+5% $327	+10% $247
Rent	-10% $144	-5% $275	+0% $406	+5% $537	+10% $668
Rate	-1.0pp $547	-0.5pp $477	base $406	+0.5pp $333	+1.0pp $259

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1.5	$3,320
Total (2 units)			$3,320

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
80 Capen Blvd Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.5	2591	$2,800	$1.08	2d	1	0.31mi
64 Montrose Ave Buffalo, NY	7.0	1.5	1512	$2,700	$1.79	44d	1	0.45mi
64 Montrose Ave Buffalo, NY	7.0	1.5	1512	$2,500	$1.65	2d	1	0.45mi
196 Englewood Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	1.5	2560	$2,000	$0.78	2d	1	0.50mi
133 Merrimac St Buffalo, NY	7.0	2.0	2327	$4,450	$1.91	15d	1	0.60mi
4098 Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.5	2108	$2,200	$1.04	44d	1	0.64mi
24 Custer St Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2500	$3,000	$1.20	15d	1	0.85mi
65 Northrup Pl Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	1467	$2,500	$1.70	15d	1	0.85mi
85 Highgate Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2193	$3,750	$1.71	15d	1	0.91mi
175 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	5.0	2.0	2000	$2,500	$1.25	15d	1	1.01mi
145 Minnesota Ave Buffalo, NY	7.0	2.0	2551	$4,900	$1.92	15d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   listed $279,999 Active
3. 2019-06-10
   soldstatus $193,000 Closed Sale or Rented 432-char remark

   Show marketing remark (432 chars)

   Beautiful 3/3 double! Features hardwood floors thru-out, upstairs with open floor plan, LR / DR combos, newer light fixtures, lower updated bath w/ pedestal sink, fully applianced, vinyl sided, good closet space, good size rooms, poured basement walls, both furnaces updated 1-12/2018 and other approx 6 years old, circuit breakers, copper plumbing, 1 semi finished room in basement. .. perfect for the owner occupied 1 great house!

4. 2019-05-31
   soldstatus $193,000
5. 2019-03-29
   status Pending Sale 432-char remark

   Show marketing remark (432 chars)

   Beautiful 3/3 double! Features hardwood floors thru-out, upstairs with open floor plan, LR / DR combos, newer light fixtures, lower updated bath w/ pedestal sink, fully applianced, vinyl sided, good closet space, good size rooms, poured basement walls, both furnaces updated 1-12/2018 and other approx 6 years old, circuit breakers, copper plumbing, 1 semi finished room in basement. .. perfect for the owner occupied 1 great house!

6. 2019-03-06
   listed $179,900 Active 432-char remark

   Show marketing remark (432 chars)

   Beautiful 3/3 double! Features hardwood floors thru-out, upstairs with open floor plan, LR / DR combos, newer light fixtures, lower updated bath w/ pedestal sink, fully applianced, vinyl sided, good closet space, good size rooms, poured basement walls, both furnaces updated 1-12/2018 and other approx 6 years old, circuit breakers, copper plumbing, 1 semi finished room in basement. .. perfect for the owner occupied 1 great house!

7. 2005-09-30
   soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,584 · $632/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,584 · $632/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$7,584
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,187
• − Management: −$3,187
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable income: $652
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$157
• After-tax cash flow: $4,713/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,433
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #4024
• State rank: #453 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda Town

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda Town, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 63,948
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 22,611
• Household income: $84,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 5% Two or more races 4% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, India
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -245.18%
• Current HPI: 320.9379
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+166.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $279,999 WNYREIS
• 2019-06-10 Sold (MLS) $193,000 WNYREIS
• 2019-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $193,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-29 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-03-06 Listed $179,900 WNYREIS
• 2005-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,584 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.