164 Barnard St · Buffalo, NY 14206

$169,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,439 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1925 6,000 sqft lot $70/sqft · 34% below area Est $256k · 34% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Three Unit in Kaisertown. Fully Occupied. Must give 24 hours' notice. Showings available on Tuesday & Thursday's from 3:00 - 5:00 p. m. , Saturday and Sundays 12:00 - 3:00 p. m. Side courtyard. Plenty of off-street parking.

Key facts

• Three unit
• Side courtyard
• Fully occupied

Tags

• THREE UNIT
• FULLY OCCUPIED
• SIDE COURTYARD
• OFF-STREET PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive. Per door: $569/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,420/mo this rent would consume 81% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 841% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.07%
• DSCR: 2.92
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,771
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -33.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
132 Weiss St	0.16mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,484 (+2%)	6mo	$165,000	$66	75
23 Matejko St	0.35mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,365 (-3%)	4mo	$145,000	$61	66
493 S Ogden St	0.42mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,484 (+2%)	7mo	$235,000	$95	63
110 Armin Pl	0.61mi	5/2.0	2,366 (-3%)	1mo	$235,000	$99	62
303 Cable St	0.26mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,647 (+8%)	4mo	$150,000	$57	62
181 Willett St	0.23mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,704 (+11%)	2mo	$301,000	$111	61
150 Weiss St	0.17mi	5/2.0	2,121 (-13%)	8mo	$100,000	$47	59
323 Holly St	0.18mi	5/2.0	2,112 (-13%)	8mo	$180,000	$85	58
75 Juniata Pl	0.64mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,544 (+4%)	2mo	$245,000	$96	52
125 Shanley St	0.56mi	5/3.0	2,200 (-10%)	8mo	$282,000	$128	51
132 Ryan St	0.71mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,230 (-9%)	7mo	$205,000	$92	42
100 Shanley St	0.51mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,112 (-13%)	7mo	$190,000	$90	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.77×
• Total profit: $179,307
• Equity at exit: $129,753

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.3%
• Equity multiple: 10.24×
• Total profit: $439,352
• Equity at exit: $258,205

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14206

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,420 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $392/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$718
• Net cashflow: $1,707

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,259

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,804	-5% $1,755	+0% $1,707	+5% $1,659	+10% $1,611
Rent	-10% $1,437	-5% $1,572	+0% $1,707	+5% $1,842	+10% $1,978
Rate	-1.0pp $1,793	-0.5pp $1,751	base $1,707	+0.5pp $1,663	+1.0pp $1,619

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1	$3,420
Total (3 units)			$3,420

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Three Unit in Kaisertown. Fully Occupied. Must give 24 hours' notice. Showings available on Tuesday & Thursday's from 3:00 - 5:00 p. m. , Saturday and Sundays 12:00 - 3:00 p. m. Side courtyard. Plenty of off-street parking.

2. 2026-03-30
   listed $169,900 Active 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Three Unit in Kaisertown. Fully Occupied. Must give 24 hours' notice. Showings available on Tuesday & Thursday's from 3:00 - 5:00 p. m. , Saturday and Sundays 12:00 - 3:00 p. m. Side courtyard. Plenty of off-street parking.

3. 2022-12-14
   soldstatus $130,000
4. 2022-12-05
   soldstatus $130,000 Closed Sale or Rented 193-char remark

   Show marketing remark (193 chars)

   Three unit building in Kaisertown, all separate meters. Fully occupied, lovely tenants. New roof, well kept exterior, new wall furnace units, perfect side courtyard, lots of off-street parking.

5. 2022-08-04
   status Pending Sale 193-char remark

   Show marketing remark (193 chars)

   Three unit building in Kaisertown, all separate meters. Fully occupied, lovely tenants. New roof, well kept exterior, new wall furnace units, perfect side courtyard, lots of off-street parking.

6. 2022-07-11
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 193-char remark

   Show marketing remark (193 chars)

   Three unit building in Kaisertown, all separate meters. Fully occupied, lovely tenants. New roof, well kept exterior, new wall furnace units, perfect side courtyard, lots of off-street parking.

7. 2022-05-17
   listed $140,000 Active 193-char remark

   Show marketing remark (193 chars)

   Three unit building in Kaisertown, all separate meters. Fully occupied, lovely tenants. New roof, well kept exterior, new wall furnace units, perfect side courtyard, lots of off-street parking.

8. 2017-04-10
   soldstatus $66,500 Closed Sale or Rented
9. 2017-04-10
   soldstatus $66,500
10. 2017-03-03
    status Pending Sale
11. 2017-01-05
    listed Under Contract- Do Not Show
12. 1994-07-11
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $392 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,632 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,239/yr (+$103/mo · 315.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$392
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,283
• − Management: −$3,283
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $18,772
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,505
• After-tax cash flow: $15,983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $50,450
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 25% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.06%
• Current HPI: 457.3935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+112.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $169,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-05 Sold (MLS) $130,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-08-04 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-07-11 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-05-17 Listed $140,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $66,500 Public Records
• 2017-04-10 Sold (MLS) $66,500 WNYREIS
• 2017-03-03 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2017-01-05 Listed — WNYREIS
• 1994-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $392 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.