40055 Hickory Ln · Ponchatoula, LA 70454

$189,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,610 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1983 0.99 ac lot Est $274k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bed, 1 bath home offering approximately 1,450 living sq ft on a full acre in Ponchatoula. This four-sided brick home features a wood-burning fireplace, fresh interior paint, and some updated flooring. Conveniently located approximately one mile from the Ponchatoula interstate exit, it offers easy access for commuters while maintaining a spacious setting. The property includes a two-car carport, a large workshop, and a generous side yard with plenty of usable outdoor space. Solid construction, functional layout, and room to spread out make this a great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike.

Key facts

• Generous side yard
• Usable outdoor space
• Full acre

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• FULL ACRE
• TWO CAR CARPORT
• LARGE WORKSHOP
• GENEROUS SIDE YARD
• USABLE OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport with two parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story; Brick construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Property in very good condition; Lot size about 0.99 acre
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Outside city limits; Rectangular lot; Lot dimensions approximately 382 x 125

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms (bedrooms not separately specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Wood-burning fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.1% in Ponchatoula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#91 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ponchatoula Junior High School (math 18% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 218 statewide, top 60%, 770 students, 60% FRL); Ponchatoula High School (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #106 of 265 statewide, top 43%, 2,262 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 73% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 526 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $189k implies a 278% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,660 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.69%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $273,700
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41346 Rosewood Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-3%)	23mo	$265,000	$170	63
13287 Drude Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,824 (+13%)	4mo	$235,000	$129	43
13258 Jones Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-14%)	9mo	$190,000	$138	36
13142 Jones Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,814 (+13%)	13mo	$335,000	$185	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-16,099
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-6,501
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70454

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,816 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $840/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40046 Twin Creeks Dr Unit B Ponchatoula, LA	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,850	$1.29	14d	1	0.43mi
41349 Schafer Dr Hammond, LA	3.0	2.0	1564	$1,700	$1.09	43d	1	1.37mi
14711 Madison Ln Unit A Ponchatoula, LA	2.0	2.0	1302	$1,450	$1.11	14d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    status $189,000 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    status Pending 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    3 bed, 1 bath home offering approximately 1,450 living sq ft on a full acre in Ponchatoula. This four-sided brick home features a wood-burning fireplace, fresh interior paint, and some updated flooring. Conveniently located approximately one mile from the Ponchatoula interstate exit, it offers easy access for commuters while maintaining a spacious setting. The property includes a two-car carport, a large workshop, and a generous side yard with plenty of usable outdoor space. Solid construction, functional layout, and room to spread out make this a great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike.

17. 2026-04-30
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    3 bed, 1 bath home offering approximately 1,450 living sq ft on a full acre in Ponchatoula. This four-sided brick home features a wood-burning fireplace, fresh interior paint, and some updated flooring. Conveniently located approximately one mile from the Ponchatoula interstate exit, it offers easy access for commuters while maintaining a spacious setting. The property includes a two-car carport, a large workshop, and a generous side yard with plenty of usable outdoor space. Solid construction, functional layout, and room to spread out make this a great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike.

18. 2026-04-25
    price $189,000 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    3 bed, 1 bath home offering approximately 1,450 living sq ft on a full acre in Ponchatoula. This four-sided brick home features a wood-burning fireplace, fresh interior paint, and some updated flooring. Conveniently located approximately one mile from the Ponchatoula interstate exit, it offers easy access for commuters while maintaining a spacious setting. The property includes a two-car carport, a large workshop, and a generous side yard with plenty of usable outdoor space. Solid construction, functional layout, and room to spread out make this a great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike.

19. 2026-04-24
    price $189,000
20. 2026-03-03
    listed $199,000 Active 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    3 bed, 1 bath home offering approximately 1,450 living sq ft on a full acre in Ponchatoula. This four-sided brick home features a wood-burning fireplace, fresh interior paint, and some updated flooring. Conveniently located approximately one mile from the Ponchatoula interstate exit, it offers easy access for commuters while maintaining a spacious setting. The property includes a two-car carport, a large workshop, and a generous side yard with plenty of usable outdoor space. Solid construction, functional layout, and room to spread out make this a great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike.

21. 2026-03-03
    listed $199,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    3 bed, 1 bath home offering approximately 1,450 living sq ft on a full acre in Ponchatoula. This four-sided brick home features a wood-burning fireplace, fresh interior paint, and some updated flooring. Conveniently located approximately one mile from the Ponchatoula interstate exit, it offers easy access for commuters while maintaining a spacious setting. The property includes a two-car carport, a large workshop, and a generous side yard with plenty of usable outdoor space. Solid construction, functional layout, and room to spread out make this a great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike.

22. 2025-07-08
    price $185,000
23. 2025-07-08
    price $185,000
24. 2025-05-19
    price $200,000
25. 2025-05-19
    price $200,000
26. 2025-01-31
    listed $209,000 Active
27. 1998-02-19
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $840 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,040 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$200/yr (+$17/mo · 23.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$840
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,743
• − Management: −$1,743
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $437
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$105
• After-tax cash flow: $3,434/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tangipahoa Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201680
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $41,283
• Composite: 19.94/100
• National rank: #8676
• State rank: #63 of 98 in LA

Livability — Ponchatoula

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #9755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tangipahoa Parish · 85,958 people
• City population: 34,564
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• Population (ZIP): 34,564
• Household income: $71,611
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 479.0

Population outlook (Tangipahoa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,204 people
• By 2030: 151,413 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 164,374 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 175,427 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 195,165 · +35.3%
• By 2100: 201,641 · +39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Tangipahoa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.6% · R 68.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.55%
• Current HPI: 129.6069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.66%
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+278.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-30 Pending — GSREIN
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $189,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $189,000 GSREIN
• 2026-03-03 Listed $199,000 GSREIN
• 2026-03-03 Listed $199,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $185,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $185,000 GSREIN
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $200,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $200,000 GSREIN
• 2025-01-31 Listed $209,000 AcadianaMLS
• 1998-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $840 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.