955 Willow Grande Cir · Flowood, MS 39047

$309,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,692 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2015 6,534 sqft lot Est $296k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning move-in ready 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in the Willow Grande subdivision of Castlewoods. This home is located directly on the golf course with scenic views from your back porch. The house has been meticulously maintained and it shows! You will notice as you enter the home the gleaming floors, neutral paint, and custom lighting. The kitchen has granite counters, bar seating, stainless steel appliances, custom cabinets and under cabinet lighting. The home features a split plan with a primary bedroom and bath on one side and two well sized guest rooms with built-ins, and a hall bath on the other. The primary suite has a luxurious bath with separate tiled shower, double vanities, jetted tub and separate walk-in closets with built-ins. The backyard views make this home so special and set it apart from the rest! Make your appointment today to view this beautiful home before it is gone!

Key facts

• Near schools
• Community pool
• Near shopping

Tags

• WILLOW GRANDE SUBDIVISION
• COVERED PATIO
• BACKYARD OVERLOOKS GOLF COURSE
• COMMUNITY POOL
• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-339/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.3% in Flowood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#10 in MS, #3,075 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Northwest Elementary School (math 58% / reading 57%, grade C+, #36 of 375 statewide, top 9%, 495 students, 99% FRL); Northwest Rankin Middle School (math 63% / reading 51%, grade B, #13 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,374 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Rankin High School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #34 of 197 statewide, top 17%, 1,898 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 440 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,221 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $296,100
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
955 Willow Grande Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,714 (+1%)	1mo	$309,000	$180	97
961 Willow Grande Cir	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,675 (-1%)	5mo	$284,900	$170	92
107 Willow Pl	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,704 (+1%)	4mo	$309,000	$181	92
102 Willow Pl	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,686 (-0%)	4mo	$250,000	$148	91
880 Willow Grande Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,570 (-7%)	2mo	$278,000	$177	80
531 Willow Valley Cir	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,696 (+0%)	4mo	$290,500	$171	78
868 Willow Grande Cir	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,770 (+5%)	7mo	$309,900	$175	77
890 Willow Grande Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,489 (-12%)	0mo	$269,000	$181	74
502 Willow Court Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-2%)	2mo	$279,000	$169	74
529 Willow Valley Cir	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,547 (-9%)	4mo	$273,900	$177	64
514 Glensview Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,617 (-4%)	2mo	$273,000	$169	57
516 Glensview Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,771 (+5%)	2mo	$299,900	$169	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-52,212
• Equity at exit: $46,073

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-49,179
• Equity at exit: $26,717

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39047

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,382 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,932/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,418

Max offer price $304,009

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $147	-5% $59	+0% $-28	+5% $-116	+10% $-203
Rent	-10% $-216	-5% $-122	+0% $-28	+5% $66	+10% $160
Rate	-1.0pp $127	-0.5pp $50	base $-28	+0.5pp $-108	+1.0pp $-190

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
917 Willow Grande Cir Brandon, MS	4.0	2.0	1823	$2,400	$1.32	15d	1	0.10mi
108 Cypress Ridge Dr Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1911	$2,206	$1.15	45d	1	0.52mi
1000 Vineyard Dr Brandon, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1138	$1,900	$1.67	25d	9	1.02mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $309,000 Active
3. 2023-06-21
   soldstatus
4. 2023-06-20
   soldstatus Closed 905-char remark

   Show marketing remark (905 chars)

   Stunning move-in ready 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in the Willow Grande subdivision of Castlewoods. This home is located directly on the golf course with scenic views from your back porch. The house has been meticulously maintained and it shows! You will notice as you enter the home the gleaming floors, neutral paint, and custom lighting. The kitchen has granite counters, bar seating, stainless steel appliances, custom cabinets and under cabinet lighting. The home features a split plan with a primary bedroom and bath on one side and two well sized guest rooms with built-ins, and a hall bath on the other. The primary suite has a luxurious bath with separate tiled shower, double vanities, jetted tub and separate walk-in closets with built-ins. The backyard views make this home so special and set it apart from the rest! Make your appointment today to view this beautiful home before it is gone!

5. 2023-05-19
   status Pending 905-char remark

   Show marketing remark (905 chars)

   Stunning move-in ready 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in the Willow Grande subdivision of Castlewoods. This home is located directly on the golf course with scenic views from your back porch. The house has been meticulously maintained and it shows! You will notice as you enter the home the gleaming floors, neutral paint, and custom lighting. The kitchen has granite counters, bar seating, stainless steel appliances, custom cabinets and under cabinet lighting. The home features a split plan with a primary bedroom and bath on one side and two well sized guest rooms with built-ins, and a hall bath on the other. The primary suite has a luxurious bath with separate tiled shower, double vanities, jetted tub and separate walk-in closets with built-ins. The backyard views make this home so special and set it apart from the rest! Make your appointment today to view this beautiful home before it is gone!

6. 2023-05-18
   status Active 905-char remark

   Show marketing remark (905 chars)

   Stunning move-in ready 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in the Willow Grande subdivision of Castlewoods. This home is located directly on the golf course with scenic views from your back porch. The house has been meticulously maintained and it shows! You will notice as you enter the home the gleaming floors, neutral paint, and custom lighting. The kitchen has granite counters, bar seating, stainless steel appliances, custom cabinets and under cabinet lighting. The home features a split plan with a primary bedroom and bath on one side and two well sized guest rooms with built-ins, and a hall bath on the other. The primary suite has a luxurious bath with separate tiled shower, double vanities, jetted tub and separate walk-in closets with built-ins. The backyard views make this home so special and set it apart from the rest! Make your appointment today to view this beautiful home before it is gone!

7. 2023-05-18
   status Pending 905-char remark

   Show marketing remark (905 chars)

   Stunning move-in ready 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in the Willow Grande subdivision of Castlewoods. This home is located directly on the golf course with scenic views from your back porch. The house has been meticulously maintained and it shows! You will notice as you enter the home the gleaming floors, neutral paint, and custom lighting. The kitchen has granite counters, bar seating, stainless steel appliances, custom cabinets and under cabinet lighting. The home features a split plan with a primary bedroom and bath on one side and two well sized guest rooms with built-ins, and a hall bath on the other. The primary suite has a luxurious bath with separate tiled shower, double vanities, jetted tub and separate walk-in closets with built-ins. The backyard views make this home so special and set it apart from the rest! Make your appointment today to view this beautiful home before it is gone!

8. 2023-05-12
   listed $299,000 Active 905-char remark

   Show marketing remark (905 chars)

   Stunning move-in ready 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in the Willow Grande subdivision of Castlewoods. This home is located directly on the golf course with scenic views from your back porch. The house has been meticulously maintained and it shows! You will notice as you enter the home the gleaming floors, neutral paint, and custom lighting. The kitchen has granite counters, bar seating, stainless steel appliances, custom cabinets and under cabinet lighting. The home features a split plan with a primary bedroom and bath on one side and two well sized guest rooms with built-ins, and a hall bath on the other. The primary suite has a luxurious bath with separate tiled shower, double vanities, jetted tub and separate walk-in closets with built-ins. The backyard views make this home so special and set it apart from the rest! Make your appointment today to view this beautiful home before it is gone!

9. 2016-01-28
   soldstatus 837-char remark

   Show marketing remark (837 chars)

   This is a great split plan with LOTS of amenities. This area qualifies for 100% USDA financing. Great kitchen with Whirlpool stainless appliances, 3CM granite, eating bar, breakfast area, rope lighting, undercounter lighting, pull-outs for trash recepticle. Cable is run above the fireplace & also connected in the built-in entertainment center. The laundry room has lots of storage plus hanging space. Master suite has rope lighting, laundry hamper, linen closet, 2 spacious walk-in closets with shoe rack & built-ins. Laundry hamper behind door in hall bath. Storage room in the garage as well as peg board for hanging tools, etc. This is a very private lot. It backs up to the golf course & has a great view! The buyer of this property will be provided a Bonded Builder's Warranty which covers the foundation for 10 years.

10. 2015-10-25
    listed $221,000 837-char remark

    Show marketing remark (837 chars)

    This is a great split plan with LOTS of amenities. This area qualifies for 100% USDA financing. Great kitchen with Whirlpool stainless appliances, 3CM granite, eating bar, breakfast area, rope lighting, undercounter lighting, pull-outs for trash recepticle. Cable is run above the fireplace & also connected in the built-in entertainment center. The laundry room has lots of storage plus hanging space. Master suite has rope lighting, laundry hamper, linen closet, 2 spacious walk-in closets with shoe rack & built-ins. Laundry hamper behind door in hall bath. Storage room in the garage as well as peg board for hanging tools, etc. This is a very private lot. It backs up to the golf course & has a great view! The buyer of this property will be provided a Bonded Builder's Warranty which covers the foundation for 10 years.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,932 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,441 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: +$509/yr (+$42/mo · 26.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$1,932
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,287
• − Management: −$2,287
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$5,762
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,383
• After-tax cash flow: $1,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Flowood

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #3075

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 9,222
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $100,347
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 551.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.01%
• Current HPI: 162.9709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+39.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-15 Listed $309,000 MLSU
• 2023-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-20 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2023-05-19 Pending — MLSU
• 2023-05-18 Relisted — MLSU
• 2023-05-18 Pending — MLSU
• 2023-05-12 Listed $299,000 MLSU
• 2016-01-28 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2015-10-25 Listed $221,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+15.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,932 · -39.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.