3050 Jersey Dr · Mobile, AL 36695

$237,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 284 Days on market

Built 2008 10,867 sqft lot $169/sqft · 11% below area Est $267k · 11% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover comfort and convenience in this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, filled with natural light and thoughtful touches throughout. Beautiful flooring flows seamlessly through the open living spaces, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The living room features a cozy fireplace, perfect for relaxing evenings at home, while large windows allow sunlight to pour in, highlighting every detail. Each bedroom is generously sized, offering plenty of space for rest, work, or play. Outside, enjoy the fenced-in backyard, ideal for entertaining, gardening, or letting pets roam freely. Located just minutes from Publix, restaurants, and everyday essentials, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Don’t miss out on this light-filled gem in a prime location!

Key facts

• Large windows
• Hurricane mitigation
• Dishwasher replaced

Tags

• COZY FIREPLACE
• LARGE WINDOWS
• DISHWASHER REPLACED
• HOT WATER HEATER REPLACED
• ROOF REPLACED
• HURRICANE MITIGATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $237k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-286/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dawes Intermediate School (math 38% / reading 70%, grade C, #96 of 627 statewide, top 16%, 584 students, 30% FRL); Bernice J Causey Middle School (math 17% / reading 51%, grade F, #98 of 257 statewide, top 38%, 1,418 students, 53% FRL); Baker High School (math 25% / reading 28%, grade F, #107 of 305 statewide, top 36%, 2,491 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 67% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 557 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 284 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $134k; list at $237k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,516 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 284 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.43%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,191
• List price: $237,000
• Delta: -11.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3000 Jersey Dr W	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,447 (+3%)	11mo	$190,000	$131	82
2980 Plantation Dr W	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,452 (+4%)	13mo	$230,500	$159	77
10521 Lowell St W	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,387 (-1%)	3mo	$265,900	$192	66
10123 N Scott Plantation Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+12%)	6mo	$264,000	$168	64
10490 Hopewell Loop	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,387 (-1%)	5mo	$265,900	$192	60
10562 Hopewell Loop	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,387 (-1%)	6mo	$265,900	$192	60
9960 Johnson Rd S	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,604 (+14%)	2mo	$232,000	$145	58
10330 Lowell St E	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,387 (-1%)	11mo	$259,900	$187	56
10459 Fletcher Ter W	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,387 (-1%)	9mo	$259,900	$187	55
10384 Lowell St E	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,387 (-1%)	13mo	$259,900	$187	55
4285 Alden Cir E	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,525 (+9%)	6mo	$267,900	$176	50
4253 Alden Cir E	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,525 (+9%)	8mo	$271,088	$178	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-45,496
• Equity at exit: $35,337

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-63,119
• Equity at exit: $20,491

Cash invested: $66,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36695

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 557
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,243
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,902/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,915

Max offer price $232,788

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $43	+0% $-24	+5% $-91	+10% $-158
Rent	-10% $-173	-5% $-98	+0% $-24	+5% $51	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $36	base $-24	+0.5pp $-85	+1.0pp $-148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,250
• Closing costs: $7,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2495 Arbordale Loop Mobile, AL	4.0	2.0	1791	$2,200	$1.23	45d	1	0.84mi
9284 Hartsfield Way N Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1726	$1,750	$1.01	45d	1	1.34mi
9310 Scott Dairy Loop Rd S Unit 4 Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,450	$1.13	15d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $237,000 Active 284 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,000 Active 281 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $237,000 Active 280 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,000 Active 279 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,000 Active 278 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $237,000 Active 276 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,000 Active 275 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $237,000 Active 273 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $237,000 Active 272 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $237,000 Active 271 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $237,000 Active 270 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $237,000 Active 267 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $237,000 Active 266 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $237,000 Active 265 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $237,000 Active 264 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $237,000 Active 263 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $237,000 Active 262 DOM
18. 2026-02-26
    price $237,000 798-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1490 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVEMENT AND HOME WARRANTY TO BE PROVIDED WITH ACCEPTED OFFER!! ALL BRICK HOME WITH FENCED IN YARD!!Discover comfort and convenience in this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, filled with natural light and thoughtful touches throughout. Beautiful flooring flows seamlessly through the open living spaces, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The living room features a cozy fireplace, perfect for relaxing evenings at home, while large windows allow sunlight to pour in, highlighting every detail. Each bedroom is generously sized, offering plenty of space for rest, work, or play. The kitchen includes a dishwasher replaced in 2023, adding to the home’s modern functionality. Additional updates include a hot water heater replaced in 2024 and a roof replaced in 2020 with architectural shingles. The roof also features an 8" bed of roofing cement along the entire perimeter, providing hurricane mitigation for added peace of mind. This home has been termite inspected annually and is protected by a current termite damage bond, with no history of termite damage. Head outside to a fully fenced backyard, ideal for entertaining, gardening, or letting pets roam freely. Located just minutes from Publix, restaurants, and everyday essentials, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Home warranty included for the buyer! Don’t miss out on this light-filled gem in a prime location! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

19. 2026-02-26
    price $237,000 1490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1490 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVEMENT AND HOME WARRANTY TO BE PROVIDED WITH ACCEPTED OFFER!! ALL BRICK HOME WITH FENCED IN YARD!!Discover comfort and convenience in this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, filled with natural light and thoughtful touches throughout. Beautiful flooring flows seamlessly through the open living spaces, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The living room features a cozy fireplace, perfect for relaxing evenings at home, while large windows allow sunlight to pour in, highlighting every detail. Each bedroom is generously sized, offering plenty of space for rest, work, or play. The kitchen includes a dishwasher replaced in 2023, adding to the home’s modern functionality. Additional updates include a hot water heater replaced in 2024 and a roof replaced in 2020 with architectural shingles. The roof also features an 8" bed of roofing cement along the entire perimeter, providing hurricane mitigation for added peace of mind. This home has been termite inspected annually and is protected by a current termite damage bond, with no history of termite damage. Head outside to a fully fenced backyard, ideal for entertaining, gardening, or letting pets roam freely. Located just minutes from Publix, restaurants, and everyday essentials, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Home warranty included for the buyer! Don’t miss out on this light-filled gem in a prime location! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

20. 2025-10-26
    price $249,500 1490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1490 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVEMENT AND HOME WARRANTY TO BE PROVIDED WITH ACCEPTED OFFER!! ALL BRICK HOME WITH FENCED IN YARD!!Discover comfort and convenience in this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, filled with natural light and thoughtful touches throughout. Beautiful flooring flows seamlessly through the open living spaces, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The living room features a cozy fireplace, perfect for relaxing evenings at home, while large windows allow sunlight to pour in, highlighting every detail. Each bedroom is generously sized, offering plenty of space for rest, work, or play. The kitchen includes a dishwasher replaced in 2023, adding to the home’s modern functionality. Additional updates include a hot water heater replaced in 2024 and a roof replaced in 2020 with architectural shingles. The roof also features an 8" bed of roofing cement along the entire perimeter, providing hurricane mitigation for added peace of mind. This home has been termite inspected annually and is protected by a current termite damage bond, with no history of termite damage. Head outside to a fully fenced backyard, ideal for entertaining, gardening, or letting pets roam freely. Located just minutes from Publix, restaurants, and everyday essentials, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Home warranty included for the buyer! Don’t miss out on this light-filled gem in a prime location! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

21. 2025-09-25
    listed $255,000 Active 798-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Discover comfort and convenience in this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, filled with natural light and thoughtful touches throughout. Beautiful flooring flows seamlessly through the open living spaces, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The living room features a cozy fireplace, perfect for relaxing evenings at home, while large windows allow sunlight to pour in, highlighting every detail. Each bedroom is generously sized, offering plenty of space for rest, work, or play. Outside, enjoy the fenced-in backyard, ideal for entertaining, gardening, or letting pets roam freely. Located just minutes from Publix, restaurants, and everyday essentials, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Don’t miss out on this light-filled gem in a prime location!

22. 2025-09-10
    listed $255,000 Active 1490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1490 chars)

    PRICE IMPROVEMENT AND HOME WARRANTY TO BE PROVIDED WITH ACCEPTED OFFER!! ALL BRICK HOME WITH FENCED IN YARD!!Discover comfort and convenience in this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, filled with natural light and thoughtful touches throughout. Beautiful flooring flows seamlessly through the open living spaces, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The living room features a cozy fireplace, perfect for relaxing evenings at home, while large windows allow sunlight to pour in, highlighting every detail. Each bedroom is generously sized, offering plenty of space for rest, work, or play. The kitchen includes a dishwasher replaced in 2023, adding to the home’s modern functionality. Additional updates include a hot water heater replaced in 2024 and a roof replaced in 2020 with architectural shingles. The roof also features an 8" bed of roofing cement along the entire perimeter, providing hurricane mitigation for added peace of mind. This home has been termite inspected annually and is protected by a current termite damage bond, with no history of termite damage. Head outside to a fully fenced backyard, ideal for entertaining, gardening, or letting pets roam freely. Located just minutes from Publix, restaurants, and everyday essentials, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Home warranty included for the buyer! Don’t miss out on this light-filled gem in a prime location! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

23. 2024-08-10
    historical $1,750
24. 2024-07-12
    listed $1,750
25. 2024-02-02
    historical $1,700
26. 2023-11-28
    listed $1,700
27. 2023-10-05
    price $225,000
28. 2005-10-24
    soldstatus $134,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,902 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,902 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,622
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,902
• − Insurance: −$1,185
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$6,895
• Taxable loss: −$4,411
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,059
• After-tax cash flow: $773/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mobile

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4262

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• City population: 205,729
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 52,690
• Household income: $76,040
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1619.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 23% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.28%
• Current HPI: 193.1651
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.41%
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+76.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $237,000 GCMLS AL
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $237,000 BCAR
• 2025-10-26 Price Changed $249,500 BCAR
• 2025-09-25 Listed $255,000 GCMLS AL
• 2025-09-10 Listed $255,000 BCAR
• 2024-08-10 Rental Removed $1,750 GCMLSAL
• 2024-07-12 Listed for Rent $1,750 GCMLSAL
• 2024-02-02 Rental Removed $1,700 GCMLSAL
• 2023-11-28 Listed for Rent $1,700 GCMLSAL
• 2023-10-05 Price Changed $225,000 GCMLS AL
• 2005-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $134,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,902 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.