116 Flaming Oak Dr · Camp Swift, TX 78602

$159,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 242 Days on market

Built 1980 0.34 ac lot $109/sqft · 34% below area Est $242k · 34% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom, 2 bath home on . 34-acre lot with mature trees. The home needs a great deal of work but could be a very nice property with a large front yard in a quiet neighborhood. Halfway between Bastrop and Elgin.

Key facts

• Large front yard
• Quiet neighborhood
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE FRONT YARD
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $616 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.1% in Camp Swift — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,213 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Bastrop ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #670 of 826 in TX (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lost Pines El (math 19% / reading 15%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 696 students, 88% FRL); Bastrop Middle (math 28% / reading 36%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 929 students, 80% FRL); Bastrop H S (math 23% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,621 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 62% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1072 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.60%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,079
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -34.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
118 Flaming Oak Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,292 (-11%)	22mo	$219,000	$170	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $7,103
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $32,136
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78602

• Home prices YoY: -23.0%
• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1072
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,182 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,493/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $616

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,402

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $706	-5% $661	+0% $616	+5% $571	+10% $526
Rent	-10% $443	-5% $530	+0% $616	+5% $702	+10% $788
Rate	-1.0pp $696	-0.5pp $656	base $616	+0.5pp $575	+1.0pp $533

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,000 Active 242 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 239 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 238 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 237 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 236 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 234 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 230 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 229 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 228 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,000 Active 225 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 224 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 223 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 222 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 221 DOM
15. 2026-04-07
    status Active 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bath home on . 34-acre lot with mature trees. The home needs a great deal of work but could be a very nice property with a large front yard in a quiet neighborhood. Halfway between Bastrop and Elgin.

16. 2026-02-17
    price $159,000 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bath home on . 34-acre lot with mature trees. The home needs a great deal of work but could be a very nice property with a large front yard in a quiet neighborhood. Halfway between Bastrop and Elgin.

17. 2025-10-15
    listed $182,000 Active 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bath home on . 34-acre lot with mature trees. The home needs a great deal of work but could be a very nice property with a large front yard in a quiet neighborhood. Halfway between Bastrop and Elgin.

18. 2025-06-18
    soldstatus
19. 2025-06-18
    soldstatus
20. 2025-06-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,493 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,910 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$417/yr (+$35/mo · 16.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,493
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,095
• − Management: −$2,095
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $5,173
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,242
• After-tax cash flow: $6,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bastrop ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809570
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $56,010
• Composite: 23.87/100
• National rank: #7799
• State rank: #670 of 826 in TX

Livability — Camp Swift

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1213
• US rank: #21179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Camp Swift, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,190
• Household income: $89,968
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 775.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.68%
• Current HPI: 247.1145
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.04%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $159,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $182,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-06-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-06-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,493 · +36.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.